ICT Actual Case Study

FTMO Trader Scouting
AUDUSD, GBPUSD & NZDUSD

http://youtu.be/GhPq0DPvXDY

Just want to add that Cable found support @ the fair value of the consolidation.

Cheers.
 
commercial are net long more than past 12 month, interest rate dropped when price in a consolidation so i expect up trend for few weeks in Euro/USD.
 

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sakib717 said:
commercial are net long more than past 12 month, interest rate dropped when price in a consolidation so i expect up trend for few weeks in Euro/USD.

Sakib,

I apologize, but I have to be blunt here.

You chart doesnt show Commercial positions. And if Commercials are increasing their long positions, we should expect further bearishness not the other way around. Also, have a look at the link between open interest and price.

Lastly, if interest rates drop, you will see money running away from that particular currency/ region. Not the other way around.
 
jupiter_peak said:
Sakib,

I apologize, but I have to be blunt here.

You chart doesnt show Commercial positions. And if Commercials are increasing their long positions, we should expect further bearishness not the other way around. Also, have a look at the link between open interest and price.

Lastly, if interest rates drop, you will see money running away from that particular currency/ region. Not the other way around.

here is the weekly link : http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=E6U14&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=200&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

but you have to confirm it in daily chart and i shared that image.
 
sakib717 said:
here is the weekly link : http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=E6U14&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=200&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

but you have to confirm it in daily chart and i shared that image.

Sakib,

It's no thebchart itself. It's how you are interpeting it.

1. If COT commercials are building up longs, expext EU to drop.

2. Interest rates and open interest are quite different.

Check on the chart and try to relate the build of Commercials and open interest and you should see what I mean.
 
Open interest declining = releasing of shorts. While Commercials are building a net long position... Also yields heading higher. Also USDX possible turtle soup pattern on the daily... Just what I think...
 
joepippin said:
Open interest declining = releasing of shorts. While Commercials are building a net long position... Also yields heading higher. Also USDX possible turtle soup pattern on the daily... Just what I think...

Are german yields really going higher?

Here is a recent (3M) screenshot of the US, UK and GER.

Besides a drop in open interest (not interest rates), we have no real reason to believe we will see an incredible dramatic change at the current moment.
 

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Re: AUDUSD, GBPUSD & NZDUSD

jupiter_peak said:
http://youtu.be/GhPq0DPvXDY

Just want to add that Cable found support @ the fair value of the consolidation.

Cheers.

Guys, I am trying to come up with the update on the AUDUSD, NZDUSD trades. However, father's duty calls at the moment.
 
jupiter_peak said:
Sakib,

It's no thebchart itself. It's how you are interpeting it.

1. If COT commercials are building up longs, expext EU to drop.

2. Interest rates and open interest are quite different.

Check on the chart and try to relate the build of Commercials and open interest and you should see what I mean.

i showed open interest ??? are you thinking about interest rate ? :eek:

here is the screen shot from Inner Circle Trader's Trade Plan Development Part 5

ICT use barchart for analyzing COT report.
 

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sakib717 said:
commercial are net long more than past 12 month, interest rate dropped when price in a consolidation so i expect up trend for few weeks in Euro/USD.

You said interest rate... not me... lol
 
jupiter_peak said:
You said interest rate... not me... lol

yah thats a funny thing, you said that too :)

"
Lastly, if interest rates drop, you will see money running away from that particular currency/ region. Not the other way around"
 
sakib717 said:
yah thats a funny thing, you said that too :)

"
Lastly, if interest rates drop, you will see money running away from that particular currency/ region. Not the other way around"

Man, this is becoming a drunk men conversation. LOL

I just mentioned interest rates, because YOU especifically mentioned it. Not the other way around.

Whenever you want to mention something, please be specific.
 
This is My take on the Future of Euro.

COT at 4 year extreme = trend change soon :) you decide when
 

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As ICT says if there is a long wick candle , its a high probability that price will fill the wick.
thats why i bought cable.
 

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I think we are getting to the fortune telling business here.

Fortune telling doesn't really make us too much money, does it?
 
jupiter_peak said:
I think we are getting to the fortune telling business here.

Fortune telling doesn't really make us too much money, does it?

no of course not, it was taken by OTE. BTW im sorry for everything, maybe I'm running after my fortune. i though this thread was opened by ICT thats why i was writing what im thinking just like as homework.

Jupiter you are awesome trader, you got huge experience.

i if i hurt you i'm sorry. i'm nothing in front of you.

best of luck
happy trading
 
sakib717 said:
no of course not, it was taken by OTE. BTW im sorry for everything, maybe I'm running after my fortune. i though this thread was opened by ICT thats why i was writing what im thinking just like as homework.

Jupiter you are awesome trader, you got huge experience.

i if i hurt you i'm sorry. i'm nothing in front of you.

best of luck
happy trading

No, no, no,

Don't take me wrong. I am VERY open to everything.

Feel free to drop in. It's just that trying to guess where the market will go next, is just pointless at this moment imho. Have the players show their cards first, than attack.

Trying to predict the future is good for brain exercise. But that's about it.

One other thing that I tell you with all my heart (good intention): try to think independently. Michael has laid a HUGE contribution for us. But we (me included) will never reach his level if we just copy him bluntly. So try to exercise his teachings with your own mindset. Especially "reading" institutional levels and 'stops for fools'.

Keep'em coming.
 
Jupiter what you think about USD Index ?

i see sell model & price is going in previous week equilibrium.

correct me if I'm wrong.
 

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My view USD/CHF

sell model, h4 order block and OTE Target fr selling 9378

correct me if I'm wrong
 

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