Hopiplaka's Journal

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
sqa said:
For Fiber, the detail that got missed is 1.3630 (can be .3620 to .3640, depending how you want to interpret a few previous data points) is a monstrously important level. The run up yesterday was a short-term Range Retrace into a massive Key S&R level.
What nonsense sqa. "Monstrously important level" indeed. GMAB

sqa said:
The other bit, and this is just technical stuff, is that July 9th & 10th, on a EDT platform, produced a Railroad Track pattern. That together is a very good set of Bearish confirmation on the HTF signals. But a lot of people were looking Long on Fiber, especially after Cable's run up this morning. But the recent Price Action on the HTF was saying otherwise.
That isn't a railroad track's bootlace. In any event, if you mistook it for one, it was technically cancelled the next day so would have, as a RRT, not been the bearish omen you claim.
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Re: SMT Divergence

foreigner said:
I absolutely agree the Break 1 Break 2 is a powerful pattern and SMT Divergence may well support the notion of bullishness, however, I would council you to watch the latest ICT video where he highlights a MM Sell Model Continuation Pattern not unlike what we have currently in EU.

Granted, this is going against dow theory (high or low by wednesday) however, in addition to my bias, we are back in the weekly dealers range (equilibrium), so the other question I would ask is; are institutions going to "step in the line of fire" at this level?



PS. Thank you for your ongoing input I have found it most helpful. :)
NY + 5AM Open..



Thank you Hopi, you've inspired my performance lately :)
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sqa said:
I was actually in the process of typing up why you missed on the Fiber trade, long before it completely dropped out of bed at the end of the day, but I held off.

For Fiber, the detail that got missed is 1.3630 (can be .3620 to .3640, depending how you want to interpret a few previous data points) is a monstrously important level. The run up yesterday was a short-term Range Retrace into a massive Key S&R level.

The other bit, and this is just technical stuff, is that July 9th & 10th, on a EDT platform, produced a Railroad Track pattern. That together is a very good set of Bearish confirmation on the HTF signals. But a lot of people were looking Long on Fiber, especially after Cable's run up this morning. But the recent Price Action on the HTF was saying otherwise.
The problem here is you can "see" everything you want, all things line up, and still be wrong :)

For instance, I attach some screenshot of the USDCHF.
First one is the 4H. A nice support/resistance line, isn't it. See the low of May 30st and all?

Zoom in to a lower TF, and see the rapid rejection of the resistance line, which is what we want to see. Next get in line with the move in an OTE, looking good.

Tuesday, hmm, not looking so good. Oh wait a minute, look at all the stops resting above the SR line. And why did I took a trade outside of a Kill Zone?
We'll probably take the stops first and go down. The high of the day was made during LO KZ. Nice STD levels as well.
Or did we made the low @ 8GMT and will we go up after breaking MS?

Look at the nice range from Jul 1st to Jul 7th, we didn't fulfil that yet (or at least touch the OTE zone), so yes, we're going down for sure.

Or do we have the power of 3 on the weekly? First go down, clean last weeks stops and continue in the opposite direction?

You see, I can "force" the charts so I'm right always :)

There's one truth only and it is that I was wrong. I was trying to mix some long term setups (which is what the daily swing and 4H order blocks are) with short term/day trading.

Now, on to the next setup, with a lower risk of course :D
 

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shopster

Well-Known Member
Re: SMT Divergence

foreigner said:
Granted, this is going against dow theory (high or low by wednesday) however, in addition to my bias, we are back in the weekly dealers range (equilibrium), so the other question I would ask is; are institutions going to "step in the line of fire" at this level?

the game does not give a rat's ass about your bias and chucky dow is doa. i gave the dealer's " heads up " so they are onside with your retail assessment.

what a crock.

s
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Re: SMT Divergence

shopster said:
i gave the dealer's " heads up " so they are onside with your retail assessment.
s
You cant even spell it dude let alone communicate it.

Youse ass is grass and Im a lawnmower..
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Admin, If Shopster and Pip pimp agree can we remove this bickering from Hopiplakas journal to see if we get an update?

I think most would agree this journal is sorely missed.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
foreigner said:
Admin, If Shopster and Pip pimp agree can we remove this bickering from Hopiplakas journal to see if we get an update?

I think most would agree this journal is sorely missed.
Hi Foreigner,

No worries, the thread is still alive. It was a bit quiet due to holiday + busy at work.
But on Monday the kids go back to school, so it's time for me to go back to (pip) school as well :)

Now, to get us started, here's a setup for this week on the EUR, and possibly for the longer term (next week as well).

My bias for the EUR was long this week (although the 9/18 EMA said otherwise :) ), due to the weekly order block (among things).

Bias long = look for the low to be formed between Monday and Wednesday.
I like confirmation of the weekly dealer range, and some news for liquidity.

Looking at the forex calendar on forexfactory, wednesday seems to be a good candidate:
EUR - GfK German Consumer Climate

When we look for higher prices, we want to see the open-down-up-close pattern.
On wednesday, price immediately went lower @ 00:00 GMT straight into the weekly dealer range STD1 line.
I waited for an OTE which came early LO in the form of a hidden OTE (1.3150).
200 extension was reached easily because we had to fill the gap.

Should you have missed the LO entry, you could get in late NYO and still catch some decent pips.

Now, looking at the broader picture we see the bounce off of a support level, and we can also see the break 1/break 2 and back into an order block, so I think today is a nice day to position yourself for a good up move.
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Piper said:
Don't try to buy against the sisters next time ;) You coul've treated it as a 15 min setup also. Better luck next time

Hey lawnmover, caught any of this grass? >:D Shop:1 ICT:0
Yes, the better thing to do was a short last week, given the order block an all :)
I took a nice long entry beginning of the week, all this was based on future prices:
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Euro_FX_Futures/E6?search=E6*

The prices all point up and because we were in a weekly order block, I thought we had made a nice low and Friday would present a nice new entry to get in sync with the long position.

Lesson learned: if 9/18 ema point down, but future prices point up, enter with half risk.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Weekly setup GBPUSD Week 36 2014

Hi all,

Earlier than expected my setup for this week was already completed.
Shorted the GBPUSD yesterday during LO news event.

Price ran up close to the 50% of the 4H order block, confluence with my weekly dealer range level.
Put on the 1Min timeframe (I like to do that during news events :) ) for an OTE.
Got out at TP1 this morning.

All in all a good 1:3 risk/reward scenario
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Re: Weekly setup GBPUSD Week 36 2014

Hopiplaka said:
Hi all,

Earlier than expected my setup for this week was already completed.
Shorted the GBPUSD yesterday during LO news event.

Price ran up close to the 50% of the 4H order block, confluence with my weekly dealer range level.
Put on the 1Min timeframe (I like to do that during news events :) ) for an OTE.
Got out at TP1 this morning.

All in all a good 1:3 risk/reward scenario
To say I left some pips on the table today is an understatement :)
For my own reference: previous day low (include Sunday on Monday) act as a resistance level in strong trends.
Use it to draw a fib level from on the 5 Min for a low risk entry.

extra: Also pay attention to the midpoint of the weekly range, nice confluence with the low (and ideal entry point)
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
So the EURUSD trade was already successful, I put a take profit at the previous weekly order block open price.
But there was a lot more gas left :)

So enter GBPUSD: I entered during NYO on a retracement into a 15 MIN Order block using a market order.
Also look at the divergence seen in NYO using the stochastic indi

I have a HTF support level at 1.6330 so I thought 1.6350 round number would be a nice TP for the NY session.
Add an extra 77 pips which brings the total to around 200 pips today 8)
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
My best trade so far I think in EU:
129 pips in 3 hours, with a 15 pip stop loss
A bit more reasoning behind the short EU entry of yesterday:

[list type=decimal]
[*]Look for a nice resistance line. Remember: in downtrend we want support lines to be broken, resistance lines to hold. See the 4H screenshot using the weekly dealer range
[*]resistance line touched: look for the order block. See 1H screenshot
[*]Check for the entry in a Kill zone: check 15M
[/list]
You see I extend the previous weekly zones a bit it the current weekly zones does not provide a clear SR level.

We had the news event during LO which drove price into our hourly order block.
You could short there or if you are not confident enough, wait for a smaller timeframe OTE to form. Use the 15 MIN order block for precise entry (i.e. a 15 pips stop loss)

As stated before: the take profit was set on the open price of the weekly order block, but there was a lot more pips to be made.
But hey: who am I to complain ;)
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Weekly setup week 37

This weeks setup for GBPUSD:

Price broke through the support level set by the huge weekend gap on Monday.
It became resistance during late NYO.
When price hit a resistance level we wait for a retracement into an OTE.

There were 2 significant news entries yesterday.
[list type=decimal]
[*]Manufacturing Production m/m
[*]BOE Gov Carney Speaks
[/list]

The first one didn't really gave enough retracement, but the second one was the driver.
It hit the 1H order block but I didn't have an order set.
Price was rejected immediately so I waited for a 5MIN retracement into the 5MIN order block.
Got in @ 1.6126, exit at the previous swing low @ 1.6064.

There is some downwards potential still I think, Asia hit the OTE of yesterdays swing right during 00GMT.
So this will be the judas swing probably, we'll see what 5GMT gives
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
GOLD - triple screen

I've entered a long term GOLD position based on seasonal tendencies and weekly level:
  • seasonal tendencies say bullish until end of september, beginning of october
  • I was looking for a confirmation in some kind of a bottom. Check the weekly chart
    • Market structure broke
    • back into the weekly order block
  • On the daily, we entered the weekly OTE zone, price bounced
  • Market structure was broken on the daily, retraced into the daily order block
  • Yesterday we made a reflection into the daily order block, it was rejected immediately
  • 00 GMT we had a Judas swing, I entered on a 15MIN OTE, confluence with other daily order block
  • I will manage this position until end of september, beginning of October
  • I will try to reenter long end of october until end of November if the position is stopped out
 

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