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Hopiplaka said:
Buy signal was triggered, hit the weekly range high level and reversed.
0.9440 is a nice round number to get in
The buy signal was void for AUDUSD after last nights data and news.
It completed the full MMSP.

We are in the OTE zone of the previous swing low, so it might be interesting to see what comes up here. Will we break the swing low, of continue the up trend?
 
An updated screenshot for EU.

We might first go to the sell OTE zone. The zone is not filled, that's a new addition to the indicator to remind me that this is not the way the trend goes.
Following the rules we should only take an entry in direction of the 9/18 trend, so I'll watch the 1.3600-1.3620 zone with great interest today.

We have interest rate announcement at 11:45GMT, things might get interesting during the NYO KZ :)

If we also complete the MMSM here, have a look at the 1.3550-1.3585 zone, with the 1.357 order block as a potential trigger.
Should this happen, I want to see a classic LO Sell into the Red zone, final TP would align with the 1H buy order block @ 1.3570
 

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USA Non-farm Payroll is right after the ECB rate decision. 4th of July Holiday on Friday for us.

Expect a wild, wild ride on the Fiber.
 
Kuzia said:
On my feed I have no MS break :/
That's strange. That can be used as broker divergence as well :)

Just wait a few more minutes, we are in a classic LO sell pattern at the moment, so my guess is they will run those lows during nyo, next form an sell OTE.

What happens then remains to be seen. Either we get a reversal pattern on the OTE, or we continue lower to the next OTE.
 
Hopiplaka said:
That's strange. That can be used as broker divergence as well :)

Just wait a few more minutes, we are in a classic LO sell pattern at the moment, so my guess is they will run those lows during nyo, next form an sell OTE.

What happens then remains to be seen. Either we get a reversal pattern on the OTE, or we continue lower to the next OTE.
Classic LO Sell day was completed I think.

It looks like the OTE BUY will hold. Stops were cleaned on most pairs.
We might see a reversal profile. Let's see what Late NYO or LC brings...
 
Hopiplaka said:
Check out the USDCAD. Also check out the 200% extension of this swing @ 1.0555.
Zoom out to the daily and look what a nice SR level that is :)
USDCAD behaved well today.
On demo I was short 1.0670 because of a 4H order block residing betwwen Monday and Tuesday.

But the better entry would have been to wait for NFP.
During NFP the stops were cleared and the 1H/4H order block were touched as well.

You can see the weekly range is respected pretty good. I still think it can go as low as 1.0555.
 

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Hopiplaka said:
Classic LO Sell day was completed I think.

It looks like the OTE BUY will hold. Stops were cleaned on most pairs.
We might see a reversal profile. Let's see what Late NYO or LC brings...
To explain the classic LO Sell on the EU, have a look at following screenshots.

A small retracement opposite to the sell setup, next through asian session to make a top.
Next back into the asian session followed by a new top. Normally there is divergence, so either EU is making a higher high, or USDCHF/USDX is making a lower low, while the other is not making a higher high/lower low.
At least one of the pairs will make a OTE after breaking a swing high/low.
Most of the time its the one who failed to make a higher high/lower low, USDCHF in this case.

The zone where the divergence was seen in EU was in the OTE zone for the swing made in NYO yesterday. Price touched the 200% extension during NFP, right into a OTE zone drawn by my new indicator - good for 60 pips.

Price is hovering around this zone for both the EU and USDCHF, while GU and USDCAD bounced off the low/high made during NFP.

All conditions are met to take a long: 1D EMA 9/18 is still BUY, OTE zone, inside 1H and 4H Order block and MS was broken on the 5M.
But I'll wait until tomorrow to see what happens during LO - if anything happens because of 4th July.

Happy 4th of July for all the USA people!
 

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SMT Divergence

For the SMT divergence people, a nice EU setup in NYO today

Yesterday stops cleaned, divergence in EURUSD and USDCHF (Which I use for USDX)
 

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Re: SMT Divergence

Hopiplaka said:
For the SMT divergence people, a nice EU setup in NYO today

Yesterday stops cleaned, divergence in EURUSD and USDCHF (Which I use for USDX)

I absolutely agree the Break 1 Break 2 is a powerful pattern and SMT Divergence may well support the notion of bullishness, however, I would council you to watch the latest ICT video where he highlights a MM Sell Model Continuation Pattern not unlike what we have currently in EU.

Granted, this is going against dow theory (high or low by wednesday) however, in addition to my bias, we are back in the weekly dealers range (equilibrium), so the other question I would ask is; are institutions going to "step in the line of fire" at this level?

EURUSDStops_zps83a39f6b.jpg


PS. Thank you for your ongoing input I have found it most helpful. :)
 
Re: SMT Divergence

foreigner said:
I absolutely agree the Break 1 Break 2 is a powerful pattern and SMT Divergence may well support the notion of bullishness, however, I would council you to watch the latest ICT video where he highlights a MM Sell Model Continuation Pattern not unlike what we have currently in EU.

Granted, this is going against dow theory (high or low by wednesday) however, in addition to my bias, we are back in the weekly dealers range (equilibrium), so the other question I would ask is; are institutions going to "step in the line of fire" at this level?

EURUSDStops_zps83a39f6b.jpg
Hi Foreigner,

Thanks for the feedback. I'm the first person to admit it can be foggy at times, but I also try to have enough confluences to try to get the bias right.
Apart from the DOW I also like the daily swing formation. We made the completion of the swing low on Tuesday, so we look for longs. On Wednesday it was a Judas swing out of LO up to go down into NYO to form a reversal pattern.
Today we went lower to get some cheap buys. Cleared out stops, all set up to go higher (watch those 4H order blocks).

So if we follow inside the range concept, with the swing low in place (and the L shape), we should either go to the OTE zone from Jul 1st - Jul 7th, or even continue to the high of July 1st

It will probably not be for this week, as it is Friday and we already touched the CBDR Weekly STD3 level today.

But - if not tomorrow - next week I expect price to go up to 1.3650-13670 level, or even break 1.3700
 
No news scheduled for the rest of the week so big moves or fast stabs would struggle for cover.

Here's the latest "order board" from orderflowtrading.com.

q1CWXD1.jpg


Some macro bids holding things up while stops build further. Some stops above to entice through the lower offers. It doesn't hurt to have two views rather than be wedded to one. Just know when each is wrong and trade what you see, not what you have been trained to believe. It is only the market that is always right. :)
 
GBPUSD 2014 Week 28

A nice example on the GU on Monday for the B2OB (Break 1, break 2 back into order block) people, a nice name for an indi I'd say :)
 

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Re: SMT Divergence

Hopiplaka said:
Hi Foreigner,

Thanks for the feedback. I'm the first person to admit it can be foggy at times, but I also try to have enough confluences to try to get the bias right.
Apart from the DOW I also like the daily swing formation. We made the completion of the swing low on Tuesday, so we look for longs. On Wednesday it was a Judas swing out of LO up to go down into NYO to form a reversal pattern.
Today we went lower to get some cheap buys. Cleared out stops, all set up to go higher (watch those 4H order blocks).

So if we follow inside the range concept, with the swing low in place (and the L shape), we should either go to the OTE zone from Jul 1st - Jul 7th, or even continue to the high of July 1st

It will probably not be for this week, as it is Friday and we already touched the CBDR Weekly STD3 level today.

But - if not tomorrow - next week I expect price to go up to 1.3650-13670 level, or even break 1.3700
B2OB in action on the EU, we saw the structure on 4H, confirmation on the 1H.
Draghi is up @ 17GMT, so we might see some action then :)
 

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Weekly trade setup 2014 Week 29 EURUSD

Hopiplaka said:
B2OB in action on the EU, we saw the structure on 4H, confirmation on the 1H.
Draghi is up @ 17GMT, so we might see some action then :)
The buy was not triggered yesterday, although it hit the price to the pip.
But no worries, I entered at the 15Min B2OB, although I should have waited for the Asian range stops to be cleaned first, would add an extra 8 pips.

Price hit the weekly open, the CBDR Weekly Top and the CBDR Daily 0.5 STD buy zone (which is also the MS1 pivot level) @ 1.36055
It was also a reflection pattern from the last swing made in Asia
 

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Re: Weekly trade setup 2014 Week 29 EURUSD

Hopiplaka said:
The buy was not triggered yesterday, although it hit the price to the pip.
But no worries, I entered at the 15Min B2OB, although I should have waited for the Asian range stops to be cleaned first, would add an extra 8 pips.

Price hit the weekly open, the CBDR Weekly Top and the CBDR Daily 0.5 STD buy zone (which is also the MS1 pivot level) @ 1.36055
It was also a reflection pattern from the last swing made in Asia
repeat after me: you shall first look at USDX (or USDCHF for that matter) before making entries :)

Although the stop is 10 pips below the swing low @ 1.3578, I'm not satisfied with the entry.
CDR STD2 and pivot S1 and bottom of weekly dealer range was the way to go with EU.
Still have the whole week to make some decent pips >:D
 

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Ok, I was wrong in both the EU and GU (other thread) today.
That happens when you're too excited about the new B2OB indi :)

In hindsight, I should have followed another indi I created, the DOD (Direction Of Day). This together with the weekly dealer range indicator gave some excellent setup.

Lesson learned, on to the next setup...
 

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Hopiplaka said:
Ok, I was wrong in both the EU and GU (other thread) today.
That happens when you're too excited about the new B2OB indi :)

In hindsight, I should have followed another indi I created, the DOD (Direction Of Day). This together with the weekly dealer range indicator gave some excellent setup.

Lesson learned, on to the next setup...
And this was the setup for GU, look at the weekly dealer range levels
 

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I was actually in the process of typing up why you missed on the Fiber trade, long before it completely dropped out of bed at the end of the day, but I held off.

For Fiber, the detail that got missed is 1.3630 (can be .3620 to .3640, depending how you want to interpret a few previous data points) is a monstrously important level. The run up yesterday was a short-term Range Retrace into a massive Key S&R level.

The other bit, and this is just technical stuff, is that July 9th & 10th, on a EDT platform, produced a Railroad Track pattern. That together is a very good set of Bearish confirmation on the HTF signals. But a lot of people were looking Long on Fiber, especially after Cable's run up this morning. But the recent Price Action on the HTF was saying otherwise.
 
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