Hopiplaka's Journal

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So you're making a play on a run back up to the Friday Order Block, before a slam back down later. You got close to getting tapped out, but the reasoning makes a lot of sense. They probably do want 1 more bite at the apple, which I think would complete a Head & Shoulders formation, right?
 
sqa said:
So you're making a play on a run back up to the Friday Order Block, before a slam back down later. You got close to getting tapped out, but the reasoning makes a lot of sense. They probably do want 1 more bite at the apple, which I think would complete a Head & Shoulders formation, right?

That's the idea I had yes :) In hindsight, the bounce back was on the 4H order block, right on the STD3 level, and they cleared the stops of Friday.

I remember ICT said that they often run the stops again after the break1/2 pattern, as happened today.
A nice MMS structure on the 15Min as well to reach the buy level @ 1.6832 price (or STD3)
 
Re: Weekly trade setup GBPUSD Week 20

Hopiplaka said:
Hi Folks,

Back from holidays. Tons of new material to study, missed a few live sessions.
Thanks to sqa for the note taking, it helps a lot to get up to speed. ICT is really up to speed lately :)

This weeks entry is for GBPUSD. We still made a higher low, and the 3 bar daily pattern had formed a swing low yesterday.
So I was hunting for a nice long entry.

We saw the break 1 / break 2 and back into an order block pattern, right into the STD 2 level of today's dealing range, also yesterday's dealing range.

Entry is based on a hidden OTE, also the R0 point of a reflection of the low made in london close yesterday to the asian range high of last night.

buy @ 1.6845-1.6850 and exit is planned @ 1.6920-16930 (dealing range of Friday), stop is @ 1.6820.

Ok, that was a loss, that's when you do not wait for the order block or trde on decent s/r lines :)
No problem, today was a perfect setup for GU.

4H market structure broke, back into the 4H order block, in the OTE zone, to todays STD3 zone and yesterday's dealer range.
Take profit at previous swing low
 

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foreigner said:
Whats the theory behind break 1 and break 2 Hop I notice you use it alot?
Hi Foreigner,

It's based on the last minutes of Video 4 in the scout sniper series, starting around 2h:40min
 

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Thursday trade GBPUSD

Go to love the reflection pattern :)

Reflection into the daily order block, OTE zone.
Also hit the STD3 CBDR zone for a long @1.6733.
TP @1.6800 or there abouts, we'll see between 15-16GMT
 

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Re: Thursday trade GBPUSD

Hopiplaka said:
Go to love the reflection pattern :)

Reflection into the daily order block, OTE zone.
Also hit the STD3 CBDR zone for a long @1.6733.
TP @1.6800 or there abouts, we'll see between 15-16GMT

Take profit executed @ 1.6800, or the STD3. There was also a nice NYO entry @ 1.6743 on a 5Min order block.
Banked 65 pips, all thanks to the dealer range and reflection pattern
 

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2 potential setups tomorrow for the GU.

One confluence with STD1 buy zone, 15 min order block and OTE zone @ 1.6778
One confluence with STD3 buy zone, 15 min order block and OTE zone @ 1.6760

I will watch the 1.6760 level, because that's also a reflection from the NYO low to high
 

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A quick 25 pips

Using SMT divergence and the CBDR, a quick 25 pips was laid at your feet today.

GU touched the STD1 high, SMT divergence between EU (failed to make higher high) and GU (higher high)

Enter @ the STD1 High (cleaned some stops on the way), exit at the CBDR low
 

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Weekly setup 2014 Week 21

Hi Folks,

This weeks setup was on the EU.
Testing out my new tools, the weekly and monthly dealer ranges, together with the daily dealer ranges.

On the monthly we see the power of 3 concept: Judas swing up into a reflection level of the last swing of the previous month. Confluences of the .75% STD 1 monthly level.

Next one's up is the weekly. We see a Monday High into the 0.5% STD 1 level and a break in market structure.
It then retraces back into the upper dealer range which is now resistance. We can see the 1H order block and OTE zone.

For the precision entry, go to a 5MIN chart with the daily dealer ranges turned on.
Both the sweet spot and OTE level correspond with a STD level, 1.5% and 2 STD.

Entry @ sweet spot, 1.3717. The exit was at the 161% extension of the swing point, 1.3642 exactly 75 pips.
The stop level of 1.3747 was never tested.

Confirmation on the USDX as well, where we broke a previous swing point, which acts now as support, right on the 0.5% STD Buy zone.

Although the weekly and monthly dealer range is a work in progress, I'm really excited about it.
 

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Just to show the power of the weekly dealer range (not something I did, live or in demo): no s/r lines, no daily dealer ranges, no other indicators:

You could get a fast LO long scalp, exit at the weekly dealer range low, which is a resistance line, and enter short in line with the bearish flow.

1 hour, 34 pips
 

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Weekly setup 2014 Week 22

Hi Folks,

I think everybody was in this weeks trade looking at twitter :)

A nice OTE, the monthly and weekly CBDR SR lines act as a confirmation.
On tuesday, first Judas swing up and than all the way down.

I can't stress it enough, but do have a look at the weekly and monthly sr lines, they are pretty accurate.
 

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Weekly Setup 2014 Week 24

Hi Folks,

This one falls under the category "You can be wrong and still be right" :)

My bias was short this week for GU, because I thought to see a nice MMSP on the daily.
However, after yesterday evenings action, I'm not so sure anymore :)

Anyway, here's tuesdays setup.
Mind you, I use my monthly/weekly/daily indi a lot for support/resistance purposes.
If you have no clue what I'm talking about, head over to http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,320.msg4938.html#msg4938 and download the indicators.

We touched a monthly level last Friday during NFP, immediately followed by a nice selloff of > 40 pips. The level is at 1.6824, so a nice institutional level.

You could take the OTE on monday, but I tend not to trade on Mondays, so waited for a confirmation on Tuesday.

Head over to Tuesday and check the weekly level at 1.6812. There was a nice consolidation Monday heading into Tuesday around the weekly dealer range level, which was also in the overlaying OTE zone of the move of Friday/Monday.

I love the break 1/break 2 pattern after a consolidation, which we saw during a news event.
A hidden OTE from the institutional level to the low formed after the second break gave us the 1.6804-1.6811 area.
The midpoint of the STD1 level was 1.6808, which also aligns with the bullish order block before the move down.

Take profit was anywhere between 1.6758 (STD3 level), 1.6748 (weekly dealer range) or TP2 @ 1.6752 (161% extension). Also a nice midfig level to take your profit.
So a possible 50-60 pips were available on Tuesday.

The stop is 10 pips above the 0% fib level, so 1.6830 or a risk of 22 pips, so a risk/reward ratio of around 1:2.5
 

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That chart sure looks complicated. I think you may be needlessly complicating trading. Keep it simple.

I have attached a chart of the same day. It has a CDR tool, some killzones (timing indicators), a trendline (shown for you, I rarely ever draw sloping lines) and a Fibonacci retracement tool.

What does the CDR actually contribute? Absolutely nothing other than coloured rectangles. It is not used for any purpose and it contributes nothing here at all.

What is required? Ability to read a price chart sufficient to know whether the market is trending and if so in which direction and with how much juice (and, of course, what might signal a change). Ability to use a Fib tool. Understanding of the simple timing factors related to main activity passing through different hands as the globe spins on its merry way every day. All dead easy. Add some patience, courage to match your convictions and sound money management and you're done.

You seem to be working very hard and I know you're smart Hopiplaka, so try simplifying now and you'll probably make more headway. Best wishes :)
 

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Actually this illustrates my point quite well.

Price action, with identified immediate prior range, Fib tool, knowledge of time of day, done!

...and by none other than ICT :)
 

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AusDoc said:
That chart sure looks complicated. I think you may be needlessly complicating trading. Keep it simple.

I have attached a chart of the same day. It has a CDR tool, some killzones (timing indicators), a trendline (shown for you, I rarely ever draw sloping lines) and a Fibonacci retracement tool.

What does the CDR actually contribute? Absolutely nothing other than coloured rectangles. It is not used for any purpose and it contributes nothing here at all.

What is required? Ability to read a price chart sufficient to know whether the market is trending and if so in which direction and with how much juice (and, of course, what might signal a change). Ability to use a Fib tool. Understanding of the simple timing factors related to main activity passing through different hands as the globe spins on its merry way every day. All dead easy. Add some patience, courage to match your convictions and sound money management and you're done.

You seem to be working very hard and I know you're smart Hopiplaka, so try simplifying now and you'll probably make more headway. Best wishes :)
Hi AusDoc,

Thanks for your honest feedback. Actually I use 4 different charts.
I check the yearly/monthly/weekly indicators on a separate chart for areas of support resistance.
Next I use the daily on a 5 minute for an entry.
The monthly/weekly/daily is just to make the logging easier, so I don't need to post 3 different charts :)
Maybe I will use a less cluttered chart in the future for logging purposes.

But I must admit that I need improvement on price reading. Or: try to identify key turning points.
I was confident that a Market Maker Sell Program was in the works (we were in a downtrend on the daily).
It appeared to be a bounce of a key resistance line with an OTE buy, 200% extension to the pip on Friday.
 
G'day Hopiplaka, I hope you had a great weekend.

The monthly/weekly/daily is just to make the logging easier, so I don't need to post 3 different charts
That makes sense. :)

I must admit that I need improvement on price reading.
That's an interesting and valuable piece of self-evaluation. I encourage you to work with that.

One problem many people face is becoming so enthused with some exciting new finding (a can't lose indicator, a new guru or mentor, a great book, wonderful software, or just about any distraction) that they rush forward without establishing a truly solid foundation. If they don't actually come to grief they certainly slow their progress and waste a lot of time. (I'm not suggesting this is you, just making a general observation.)

The practice of just hitting the pause button on (trading) life occasionally and taking time for self-reflection and appraisal can be immensely rewarding. If you can recognise any weaknesses in foundational things then it is wise to address those things before moving on. Building on sound foundations is being smart, in everything.

When it comes to trading development (as opposed to trader development, which is about the far more important personal 'psychology') there is absolutely nothing that is more foundational than reading price action. You can best learn that on naked charts. Ultimately, no real learning or development can happen without readiness. Some people are so busy with their distractions that they never become ready and hence never go back to basics. Without sound foundations they may not actually crash and burn but neither will they soar to great heights.

You seem to be on the right track Hopiplaka. I'm sure you will continue to be a source of inspiration to others. All the best.
 
Trade setup 2014 Week 25 USDCHF

Hi all,

This week something different. The USDCHF :)

I'm in the middle of developing a nice little indicator which takes all the stress out of trading.
It's the Fib and Order block indicator.
Combine this with the weekly dealer range indicator: http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,320.0.html and you can see some solid setups come to fruition.

To demonstrate the possibilities, USDCHF is up on the chopping block.

Screenshot 1 you can see the indicator at work. It's drawing the order block and a nice little red/green arrow. The arrow is drawn at 6 GMT the day you should enter the trade.
Pay attention to the weekly dealer range level it bounced off from, and the weekly level on the day you should trade. Pretty neat huh ;)

Next screenshot is the 5 MIN on the day you should take the trade, with the daily CBDR indi.
You can see the MS break and back into a OTE zone, right on the CDR midpoint and daily open (5GMT).
You had like 1 hour to enter at 0.8994.

Last screenshot is the take profit.

Have a look at how the FOMC meeting presented another great entry point. However I was looking at the charts during that timeframe and the spread was > 20 pips @ Oanda during that time. So it would have been hard to get a good price if you're not working with a commission based broker.

Needless to say the 200% extension came in the next day @ 15GMT :)

Stop loss was 10 pips above the fib 0%, or around 25 pips. Take profit would be around 80 pips, so definitely a 3:1 trade.

I also attach the AUDUSD, same principle. The entry after MS break on the 5MIN came in during 14GMT (late NYO Kill Zone), take profit next day @ 15GMT at the TP 2 level (161 extension).

You can see the order block rectangle is a different kind of blue. The dark blue rectangle is the 4H order block the other one the 1H order block.
No worries though, the indi detects it automatically for you :)
 

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Guys ,

Am at work during LO so ..have to use the 4.3" screen on my android to try and make entries.

The issues with this is that my broker gives a very basic MT4 app which has no fibs and most of all the bigger pic is missed out on m15 / h1. I believe this app is common for most brokers.

So does anyone here know of a good app ?

thanks
 
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