Fundamentals or is it funnymentals.

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First week of 2016 over, kept the Gbp short going, didn't open anything on the S&P, it's Friday after all, only fools and horses open a new position on stocks on a Friday.

Now I wanted especially to talk about Gbp and that short, I like short term, haven't the patience for all that thinking miles ahead. I wanted too to mention this thing that guys get hung up on, the stupidity of separating FA and TA, if you live on the right side of the chart they are the same thing, they don't even have names, it's just one market.

Some guys say the market is always right, but is it?, maybe it doesn't know right from wrong, maybe just a load of people, mostly men, mostly smart asses, (plural right?) - all you have to do is get inside their head, they are mostly young, not so smart, and often running scared, scared that they will miss out, scared that their longs will get pulled down, or that their shorts get pulled up (like that little guy in the Simpsons).

Anyways, right side on Gbp, when I posted, I had the force (fundamental crap) with me, so that meant I could happily go to Moe's last evening leaving that trade open, the notion of needing to babysit that trade far from my mind, not even a SL, it just needed scared time.

This is the thing about FA, it sets direction in concrete, if you then want to incorporate TA, then great stuff, if not, also great.

The FA crap behind the short is just a bunch of guys around a table, admittedly not so young, but all wanting to be right. Last time they mentioned energy, time before they suggested that oil had hit a bottom, then on Wed they all looked at one thing - oil - grrrr... it's gone down again, guys what you think, is there likely a chance that there could be a push up on prices around the corner, maybe oil has hit a bottom.......what'll we say..... scared to wrong.... play it safe, be a dove.

Peterma's minutes of the BOE meeting on Wed past :)

First chart is a screen shot this morning (uk) so, if I was scared of getting my shorts pulled up and was into all that candle stuff, and didn't have the force with me.....

Second chart is the way things played out, I wish I could say that I used all sorts of fancy TA to enter, but I didn't, even the top short was right side, i.e. that was yesterday, by pure chance it looks like I hit a top, that's left side for you - it only makes you look good.

Right side rules :)
 

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Aha! - glad you spotted that, been keeping that one in the cupboard, in all the fancy charts that I've posted, no sign of the dreaded SL, that's the FA crap for you........

I love that term, many thks to Jonny (I think).

Will talk about the dreaded later.
 
Hi Guys, this place has a fixation on three letters of the alphabet, if you glance at the 'recent posts' at the bottom.

So to lighten up the trading world I'm going to take y'all over onto the right side, specifically my old favourite - Eur/Gbp.

Now it so happens that my entire life (not true since the Euro is slightly younger than moi) I have had the necessity to check that little baby upon wakening each morning.

It so happens that all the non mental guys have a line drawn at 77.50, apparently the longs (of which there aren't so many, seems they figured that the Euro was doomed,) are all going to exit and the shorts are waiting with baited breath to get in the second that price hits that level.

So, lets learn, on the right side, what really does happen.

btw, my focus is on 80.00 but reality is I don't know the short term any better than the next guy, but I will have a sense when price begins to reach the level.
 
Monday morning, that's the time to watch out for the dreaded SL,

So any of the guys (avg Joe?) that chased GBP down got a little squeeze, wonder where they put their stops, hmmm.. above the Asian high?, I'd say always be safe and leave a little room, so above the number, and then maybe 10 pips more, but cannot go much more on account of the high leverage, but should be safe at 410, I know it was late Fri, but as soon as I saw the break below 380, everyone was saying the pound is falling like a stone after all.

Well that's that, blue Monday got Joe, he was right with his mentals, just the timing got him.

Btw, they were buying at gizmo from 06.15, they were the early birds, so if gizmo (4273) breaks south what'll I do, dunno, first thing now is book a little profit then see what happens right side.
 
Hi Peter!

I am watching your thread all the time, very good stuff. :)
Today i bought GBP/USD. Truly massive divergence on both indicators, i bet Shopster would say corked DB. Also trendline break and nice re-test... for me it doesn't get much better than this. So i pulled a trigger. Let's see how it plays out. Even in case if such a divergence fails, there is big chance for a very strong move down in a trend fashion for a couple of next days. That's how i see it.

What do you think? :)

http://i.imgur.com/R1yrtP4.png
 
Price was up at 4306 when I last posted, has gone down to gizmo but is refusing to go below it, that's those bloody gizmos for you, ah well, Rome wasn't built in a day, or so I'm told, can't remember back that far.
 
hey peterma, I don't know what a gizmo is... but I do know that the pound is flirting with a low that was posted all the way back in 2011. I haven't traded the pound since before Christmas. Kinda a shame really, looking back its been a nice steady move down and would have been a no brainer to trade... Anyhoooww, before I take a counter trend trade I always look at the myfxbooks open positions graph. Looks like 65% of the positions on the pound are longs... You think all those traders finally got it right?

P.S excuse the stream of thought writing.
 
The mentals are negative Gbp, I did see the divergence.

Eur/Gbp is acting the big boss, it cannot get up over it's gizmo area (7637), my thinking is that they'll go together.

Gizmo - long story, back to early eighties when technology was in it's infancy, best there was around were called gizmo (short for - ah, go on, gi' us more', you have to say it fast).

It's just a mid session level, the wee gizmo just gave the hi/lo of tha Asian for the early birds on the train, then, because of the lack of computers and the difficulty in doing maths, they just set the orders half way - Fibs were still being unearthed, but way too complicated, and when they did everyone stuck in the 50% (gizmo) and called it a fib level.

Remember, this is cutting edge stuff, beats folding little cards and calling them pivots.

Pipmart, hard to beat thinking and typing at the same time, mind you it can get me into trouble, the flirting thing, I remember that low well, back even a little further, then we had a new government, they promised to tackle the debt and they all started to buy the Gbp, well for a while anyhow.

Good luck Big on the trade, may the force (mentals) be with you :)
 
I exited with a loss about half way to my stop, when zlag macd crossed below zero line and didn't find any support there. Soon after that i went short, counting for more down then. Well, it looks the trend down is so strong, it destroyed such a massive divergence without problems. When a good divergence fails, it could bring more pips in the old trend direction. Similiar situation took place a week ago on monday too. There was a divergence, it went a little more up than today, making it possible to arguably buy profitably, but overall it failed to change the trend and when the price dropped below it we had a nice drop on tuesday. I am hoping for the same tomorrow.

I hope you don't mind Peter, that i leave my trash at your yard... ;)
 
No probs Big, the force was not with you on that one.

I liken the mentals to one of those big wind machines they have on the movies, a person can push against it, but the closer he gets the greater effort it takes.

My short had 3 entries, it looked as if I had used TA, I just watched price (oldies called it tape reading), so as soon as I felt that the glum kids at the table would be even glummer on oil I went short, then price put it's head down a pushed against the wind machine, so I just price watched until it could no further, then second entry, then as the wind knocked it off it's feet, third entry - no need to think about sl, just getting in, then plenty of time for a SL later.

When you are price watching you kind of get a sense of the turning point, you see the numbers slow, and stall, but you need to know which way the wind blows (lol sounds like a song that I know :))

Anyways Monday can be tricky, even more so when the yanks are on hols.
 
First thing that came to my mind was:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1rSomuGs_w

Is that it? Hehe.
 
Lol,

Now I.m thinking about the mentals on the right side, hope to guage the strength of the wind by how price behaves.

Inflation rise for UK is a big surprise, similar set up a few months ago would have caused a flurry of buying, but so far reasonably muted. Transport a factor, and you'd never guess - airlines rising their prices. (they have been getting a bad press lately on their prices in relation to oil, problem is they never anticipated the cost as low, that's the negative in forward contracts).

Just a wee useless statistic, home heating oil 61.7p per litre on Sep 24 2012, today 25.1p per litre.

So some more shorts? - hmmm, gotta check the wind.
 
Ok, my last post on cable, I don't want it to seem I'm a smart ass, just wanted to show how combining TA and FA and what mark Douglas (I think) talked about getting into the zone. That zone is just thinking how the market is thinking, which is usually pretty straight forward.

Today's GBP news in the not too distant past would have had Carney grinning from ear to ear, but remember I said about being glum, so the market had a fair idea that he wouldn't be coming out with interest rate guns blazing, so what did they do? - what they always like to do, back up to a level, take a few stops, if any, and then the wind blows it hard.

Yes I added more, greedy beggar that I am, and yes this time I used TA for the entry, just to maximize the profit.
 

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Pipmart, that last entry was at 4319, exited completely at 4178, on the way down - I have a thing about leaving on the table, I never mind doing that but hate giving back.

It was funny, when concentrating on price there is no time for seeing all the commentary, so just reviewing now, the headline on BBC says that Carney gave a 'gloomy' assessment, they should have said 'glum'.

Think maybe the wind might die down a little now, most dangerous time for me is stepping back into the ring just after a few good trades, so I usually step back a few days, still early in the week, and then there is the S&P waiting for a buy :)

Now where did I put those slippers and pipe....
 
Well, stayed out of the ring, well actually only the FX ring, but I have been aware, obviously, on stocks, I'd say most are short there.

But have been keeping a right eye on Gold, the doom mongers will often head over there to buy a little, also if the USD is under pressure then often will make Gold attractive, so to the technicals - pretty straight forward, long at 9.00 am, just as price reached Friday's high, didn't wait to see if a bounce, reason that price headed up from mid Asian without looking back.

Now right side thinking - possible that ECB will be a damp squib which is ok for Euro, USD will feel some little heat from that, still doom monger chatter - all healthy for a Gold buy - but this time I have to set a SL, slightly more risky than GBP trade, so only entry, was just trying to get a little cushion before tomorrow.

If all goes according to that very well thought out and documented plan then I may add - SL now set just below B/E, hoping that the Asian session will allow the SL to set in profit.

Btw, I see that upside down candle, there is some sort of fancy name for it, hanging man?, upsidedown hammer? shooting star? - oh well I'll know soon enough if it means anything.
 

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Dreaded SL hit, out just below b/e

That's how I use the dreaded one, when the wind isn't blowing just as hard as I'd like - it was worth a try.

Too bad on the Euro, especially Eur/Gbp, hope it stalls the fall, would like to see around 80 in the spring.
 
Peterma said:
Too bad on the Euro, especially Eur/Gbp, hope it stalls the fall, would like to see around 80 in the spring.

With these two it looks like we just hit a reversal point. First return to 77.5 when it was VERY Major support.
S&P first retest of low, Long to 50 ma? Just a PA perspective no TA at all.
 

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All things possible I suppose, I'm not really much use when it comes to price action, I'm probably too focussed on the near term.

On that note, I mentioned the candle last night, and wondering out loud about whether it had any significance, the truth was that it was a reflection of risk change (short term), I was watching the S&P and could see a change underway, often happens after a lot of doom-mongering, that switch in risk has been slightly negative for the Euro, but the question is will that negativity remain?

I'll not sell Euro just yet;

Btw, here is the S&P, the yellow up arrow corresponds exactly in time to the candle that I was rabbiting on about on Gold in last night's post.

Also, right now, s&p selling, gold buying, and our old friend the Euro beginning to smile again at the risk off.
 

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