Fundamentals or is it funnymentals.

Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by Peterma, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    And finally, no more yakking (love that word) about gizmo and 100 or 200 sma's , way too boring with zero entertainment value.

    Posted Eur/Usd last time, so here is Gbp/Usd this morning, arrow is 07.30gmt, that yawning and stretching time in Europe:
     

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  2. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    At least 4 times in as many weeks I have come across someone talk about the importance of learning how to recover from drawdown - man I hate that word.

    Anyways, during this past week I was suffering from that hateful word, there were times I wanted to just hit the exit button and be done with it, but I just stuck with it.

    I remembered the pitbull's words about the need to get smaller, so I was largest in cable and exited some of those trades, took on some more in Eur/Usd etc etc.

    In the end I was lucky that Draghi came to the rescue and I ended up in positive territory - but the trade again reminded me that rule 1 when in DD is DO NOT PANIC.

    Liked this article, especially the last two paragraphs:

    http://education.forexlive.com/!/how-to-win-when-losing-20160312
     
  3. the golden gun

    the golden gun RINSE & REPEAT

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    I measure drawdown in terms of time to recover.

    5% DD = 1 Session
    10% DD = 1 Day
    15% DD = 1 Week
    20% DD = Quit trading and go home, you suck
     
  4. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Thks GG, took me a week, the one thing that alerted me was the cable gap, I was aware that it hadn't yet filled, also aware that being short the dd would be too great if it did (now filled).

    Anyways, onwards and upwards - I'm keeping a close eye on oil tomorrow, the ta says due to fall, the fa says the same, so will we get a rising USD to compliment such a scenario, not happy yet shorting Eur, but Gbp could be a different story, have to watch Eur/Gbp for some guidance.

    I trade the S&P, so if oil falls back, fair chance some sells on s&p, it's fresh to trade without DD :)
     
  5. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Something that I meant to post and always seemed to forget - how price can behave when approaching the line.

    I'm that lazy that I have an indie paint the last couple of important highs and lows, I remember a trader once talking about how when price approaches the line nice and slowly, gives guys plenty of time to set their bounce orders, and lo and behold price just moves on right through, think he called it the slow move of death or some such strange thing.

    He noted the opposite, when price is racing right to the line, traders hastily join in, often not even waiting to see if price will bounce, they reason that with such momentum it will just bust on through.

    He had some other weird name on that scenario which I cannot remember.

    Anyways, both scenarios played out today, so thought I'd share this amazing piece of wisdom.

    First the S&P and the quick...

    Then Eur/Usdwith the slow....
     

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  6. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Remember that the fancy horiz line on the S&P was drawn by a guy called indie, so it was already there, price broke thru that line in the futures whilst I was fast asleep, lo and behold that same line then was resistance today, that indie guy knows his stuff.

    He was out painting on the Eur/Usd chart as well, fast down for the bounce, what's the betting that there is divergence on shop's stuff if I were to go down to a 5 min right at the point where price meets that indie guy.
     

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  7. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ok, I have gone down to the 5 min, just for the hell of it.

    Two charts, two brokers, the red line indie on one is willspread on the us10yr, the other is on good ol' USDX, so seems there were lots of confluences (couldn't remember that word for the life of me)

    Anyways, there you go.
     

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  8. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Hi guys, time to bring the thread to a close.

    The purpose was to show how FA and TA intertwined, interlinked, part of the same thing. Hope I did that by using the right side of the chart.

    One final point, ICT was a great help in my own journey in TA because he kindly allowed me to see inside his thinking, few traders are game enough to do that.

    In the thread I have previously noted that on Gbp/Usd they often bring price up pre news in order to accommodate their selling, they did that yet again yesterday and today, it would not matter the actual numbers, it was always a case of 'sell the rally'.

    ICT used TA to sell cable (as per twitter), others on that forum were calling it higher yesterday (guys that charge pay as you go mentorship), I sold simply on the basis that regardless of all the cpi's there is no way under the sun that the BOE will even think about interest rate increases until at least the brexit vote is done and dusted.

    Today was a case of TA or FA achieving the same result - like I often say - there's just one market.
     
  9. Computater707

    Computater707 Well-Known Member

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    Tx Peterma you have been a great help in mine also
     
  10. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Was an interesting read over its duration.
     
  11. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Thks guys, some ppl have asked about shop's zero lag indie, the bad news is I cannot remember where I found it so best guess is a google search with zero lag macd and shop attached.

    Truth is divergence relies not so much on the indicator, so try out rsi or cci or std macd - anything that is looking at momentum - you are looking to find where price is being moved in the wrong direction, often for orders.

    So, since this forum has gone kinda quiet, which is how most us old timers like it, I think I'll start a wee (little) thread on the indexes (indices for the Latin purists)

    I'm told that most learner traders head for FX, apparently it's way much easier.

    So on the new thread, I will call it SPXGears, there will be no fundamentals concerning the likely scenario for UK economy and taking into account, at the same time, the problems facing the US whilst trying to place a trade on where Gbp/Usd is headed.

    No, this will be much more difficult, I will try to figure whether risk is on, off or being decided....

    Edit: btw, will be in the dark side of the chart, so sometimes right, sometimes wrong.
     
  12. Computater707

    Computater707 Well-Known Member

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    I think these are the three from his old thread
     

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