Fundamentals or is it funnymentals.

Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by Peterma, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Btw, I'll not be trading it, but will be watching Eur/Gbp, will be good to see if it can rise tomorrow, will be a healthy sign for the Euro if it does. Everyone is saying see all the lower lows and lower highs hr1, yeah yeah, I see 'em.
     
  2. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    ok, Eur/Gbp has summed up my market thinking.

    I adopt an 'us and them' approach, Wyckoff's grey 'them' being the guys who collectively excersize a degree of control on price.

    That control is via buy/sell orders, The Euro (vs Gbp) lately has been the market darling, even Mario is coming accross as a communicator much better than Carney - the daily confirms the market outlook.

    So when a banker says to look at the lower lows and lower highs on hr1, on the lead up to Boe news, that shouts 'you are best to sell such a pattern', I answer 'yeah yeah i see 'em'.

    (btw, part of the reason you often hear how the market just does the opposite of what a new trader does)
     

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  3. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    The cable play also panned out much as expected, nothing mind blowing, just the usual.

    I have taken off some profit since it's NFP, just showing the two indicators for handiness, they always like to make a play for a recent high (did I say that one before ... hmmm...)
     

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  4. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Trade now closed, around 150 pips from entry. It was a simple trade, based on the notion of gloom (yet again) from the cb'ers. Even NFP was never going to change the set up, if you've taken something up with the express intention of selling it then it takes an avalanche to change that.

    Today's approach for me is to book some profit rather than a SL, then no silly spike can get the trade - they love their spikes on NFP - almost got the guys who placed theirs above the Asian high, the wind saved them.

    Good weekend y'all
     
  5. pipmart

    pipmart Well-Known Member

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    The trick was having a correct guess on the general direction (bias?). If you got it right then you are golden. Otherwise you better be quick. :D :D Good trade lo guy.
     
  6. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Pipmart, you've summed up the whole intention of the thread, not my smart ass trade, but direction.

    The reason I drew attention to Eur/Gbp the other day, before it's rise, was that a few pay as you go experts were eying the hr1 trend and calling price lower.

    The many times you will hear 'oh the importance of money management', or 'must have a trade plan', or ' always define your risk' etc etc. - all pretty useless if a person cannot get the direction right.

    Mentals means thinking, so when pay as you go guy was talking about Eur/Gbp lower, a trader would have to think' what would cause a guy with a shit load of Euros in his pocket to go and buy Gbp with them, what would his thinking be, does he see something up ahead that the Boe cannot see, or is price just being spoofed.

    Some guys don't believe that manipulation happens, they point to Dodds, and all the enforcement bodies, it has existed since day one and will likely always will do.

    Anyways, was reading this item posted yesterday, think that if one guy can net 40 million on an exchange, then what possibilities that can exist in fx.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35500088
     
  7. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Back to cable, price up 100 pips pre the cpi news, so what's up doc?

    The place I'm watching is gizmo, mid Asian from yesterday, seems our American friends all had a holiday so didn't get any of the action, wonder will they get the second chance for their sells. (mid Asian was 4520, we've just hit that number now.)

    Remember the glum faces, would they have had a premonition on the numbers
     
  8. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Quick update, all sorts of 'reasons' being offered for cable rise this morning, main offering is the poll published on last night's ITN news - complete nonsense since that poll is showing an increase in those in favour of brexit from last time, yes the majority is still with the stay ins (excluding don't knows) but that majority has been cut dramatically and the new poll is after the PM published his shopping list - many stay ins taking this as an ominous sign.

    See also the poor old algo getting the blame too - ah well, all in a day's fun.

    Update: price now down to 4455, it's at this point I introduce a SL, simply to ensure booking of some profit. This is the third time that the glum faces played out, it's just the same thing repeated yet again, they take it up to meet their own and their friends' orders.

    Anyways, no indicators used, just gizmo, took a long on Eur/Gbp because it went down to meet yesterday's low, so introduced a sl there also at b/e. Now looking to Euro to add some wind - if it has the puff that is. (I was aware of div on willspread on Eur/Gbp)
     
  9. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ok, full exit at 4425 - good chance that price will hit 4390 before eod, happy to leave on the table, it's kinda like paying respect to the market, letting it know that it is the boss :)

    A sort of update, the cross for a cable trader to watch right now is Eur/Gbp, it's sitting at 7740, any push up, and it has the feel of wanting to do just that, will accelerate cable south, currently 4428 - so when our cousins arrive there is a reasonable chance that the sparks will happen, let's see.
     
  10. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Well the sparks did fly. I re-entered short, wasn't being disrespectful (greedy) to the market since it kindly invited me back in with it's action on Eur/Gbp. This time gave 5 pips in payment and (short again at 4421) and have just exited at 4358.
    That's all the mentals for a while, take care.
     

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  11. Computater707

    Computater707 Well-Known Member

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    A gizmo that I play with is using a daily open line set to GMT 05:00 (NY midnight) 13:00 (NY open) & 21:00 (NY close). It seems that these lines indicate areas of price sensitivity. I connected some lines to show what I mean and how they can bring an illusion of order to price action.

    Last night price retraced Fridays NY open line - almost as if it would allow NY to pickup pretty much where it had left off. And then raced off to tag the NYO from three Fridays before that
     

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  12. Th3Lucky1

    Th3Lucky1 Just another 1

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    BTW Pete, just a suggestion, if you want to eliminate the zlag signal line, set the color to none, not black, and then it won't smudge your charts.

    Cheers,
    TL1
     
  13. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    You know TL, the day that I waken up and figure I can learn nothing will be a bad day, many thanks for that little tip.

    I used to laugh at MT4, thought it was too quirky, I've come full circle and gotten to enjoy all it's little nuances, couldn't be without it nowadays.

    Have a good week you guys.
     
  14. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Much of the talk on Stg is Brexit right now. Many guys wanting to short, I exited a long on Friday on cable for this very reason.

    Likely a gap down tomorrow, not filled in Asia and then maybe UK time, the indicator to watch is Eur/Gbp.

    Quite a few commercials have been anticipating 80.00 actual rate by spring time and making their decisions accordingly (81.00 to 81.50 on fx broker feeds), they so decided back in early Dec 2015, the betting was that the PM would agree etc etc., possible to see this now in hindsight on weekly.
     
  15. Th3Lucky1

    Th3Lucky1 Just another 1

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    Hey P!
    The post from now on, can you break down a bit more, and add references of the info you are did your decision ? I wanna see the puzzle too :p

    Cheers
    -TL1
     
  16. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    There was some chat over on another thread about Eur/Jpy, some Joe guy was long at the wrong time apparently.

    This cross for me is presently one of the best risk indicators around,

    I took a small entry, as small as you can go in fact, mainly because I was against the trend, nonetheless I felt that there would be some stock buying up ahead, maybe in the financial sector, also maybe in energy, and that it could be short lived but would cause a pull back in Eur/Jpy.

    In this type of scenario, since I believe that I am being disrespectful to the market by picking a bottom I would enter small, and wait for the turn, sometimes a dbl bottom, sometimes not.

    Indicators are excellent when the DB happens, so confirmation on three such indicators.

    Note that WS is on Gold because of the risk sentiment:

    Bad day on China stocks just past, so will watch for some follow through on that, also GDP US tomorrow may disappoint adding to Eur buying - lets see.
     

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  17. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    And the update - now has formed a dbl top, likewise SPX, so have to watch out.
     

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  18. Th3Lucky1

    Th3Lucky1 Just another 1

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    hey,so you do quad confirmation with indies after you have a fundie perception? ???

    -TL1
     
  19. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Yep, that's that trade in a nutshell. Just as there are trends in TA, so there are trends in FA, the recent trend in risk has been risk off, now there is a pull back with some risk on, so much so that even a really bad day for the Chinese stocks didn't (yet) stop the buying.

    I exited yesterday evening because I suspect some more risk off, the US gdp could be a sideshow or it could set the tone for a few days, have to wait and see.
     
  20. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Hey, just thought I'd post a little hindsight nonsense on TA, since I see poor old FA is still getting a hard time on twitter.

    Anyways, like I say, they have to take it up to take it down, ECB next week.

    So, EurUsd pre NFP, i.e. Thursday, gizmo gives the Asian high and low, where oh where to place the orders, kiss, just divide the thing in half.

    Two money lines there, yep again, kiss 100, 200 sma

    So Friday, what's the thick red line - only some smart ass indie that paints last week's high and low - kiss

    So you want to kiss? - no, keep the TA simple, no need for all the fluff.

    What about cable? - try it and see, last weeks low, 100/200 sma etc etc,

    All hindsight baloney, but here is a nice little pic of gizmo:
     

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