Fundamentals or is it funnymentals.

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just closed at 2017 - sure it has a little more falling in it's veins but I'm not greedy.

Cigar lighting, smoke billowing, broad smile - I love it when a plan comes together.

Btw, just for the TA guys, 200 sma is toast - check out the death cross 200/50, draw a h/line at price (2059), then wait for price to close below the 50, then wait for price to re-visit from underneath (yesterday) - all hindsight rubbish, right side of chart rules ! :)
 
Peterma said:
Trade has gone around in tiny circles, two options, first rely on the European indices to catch the s&p jitters tomorrow morning

And finally, the market closed at 2007, so there was indeed some more selling in the veins, wasn't too difficult to see that right side. Guys often will ask me why I do that, why do I leave on the table.

Years ago I used to attempt to wring the last dollar out, but imo that is being disrespectful to the market, just the same as trying to get the absolute entry. It's way more stress-free to choose the centre portion and lever up, I just focus on the amount of dollars the market is offering and leave the rest.

One other thing, when focussing right side it's very, very common to get the timing out, maybe a day or two, often your brain works faster than the market, thus the need for patience - (timing is only perfect in hindsight, so sometimes using hindsight to learn can cause impatience, good to visualize the right side)

I have highlighted the above quote on Wed evening, that didn't happen Thur, but it excactly what happened this morning UK - there is only one market.

Anyways, that last long candle is what I could visualize using FA and my little breadth analysis on Wednesday, the investors in those companies did indeed check out, along with a few others.

Now for a rest.
 

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I know this is more an FX site, I chose the S&P trade, not to show off or be some sort of smart wise guy, I wanted to attempt to highlight the notion that the market is one place.

In the olden days there were spooze traders or currency guys or maybe the bond traders and so on. Most these traders specialized and they were good in their own arena, they had only a passing interest outside that field.

Those days are gone, caused by a number of things, some have blamed 'globalisation', others inter governmental trade treaties including the creation/expansion of the EU. My humble opinion is the introduction of electronic trading and this device that I am typing on, this combination caused the creation of the Algo .

The beauty of the algo is that it is focussed on the right side of the chart, it knows only one market, it is programmed to look for risk on or off, it has no sense in that it cannot feel sentiment, so it has to look to other markets for guidance.

Just check this out, right side of the chart, look closely at how the stock market, the USDX and Gold react this week ahead. Get a sense of who is leading and when the algos click in in these 3 markets

For the guys asking about the behaviour of the S&P vs FX, stock markets are very much more mood orientated, especially into the close, so if you see a peak late in NY and then price begins to fall, usually about an hour before close, then if it is late in the week most guys just sell, they don't want to be wrong side over the weekend just in case there was some sort of news that they don't know about but that others do.

Right side of the chart again, tomorrow, maybe after one or two hours trading the S&P will likely rise, then again, always remember that right side is seldom timing exact, best you can do, as Shop says, think in probabilities - are US companies in difficulties or not.
 
Peterma said:
Right side of the chart again, tomorrow, maybe after one or two hours trading the S&P will likely rise, then again, always remember that right side is seldom timing exact, best you can do, as Shop says, think in probabilities - are US companies in difficulties or not.

One day out, remember that right side of the chart timing is seldom exact.

bye

PS - for the techies, 200sma daily or hr1 - the magnetic line.
 
And again, right side, the above PS was made around the down arrow yesterday, see how the techies played by the book since then.

Now right side today and the old knee will be jerking somewhat, the pundits say that the S&P his heading south, me, hmmm... too bloody scared to go long, will have to wait for the knee to settle then I will look for a little long :)
 

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Peterma said:
PS - for the techies, 200sma daily or hr1 - the magnetic line.

In my experience 200 ma works on all time frames in the fx world with the stock market and etf's I only traded the daily It definitely worked there

Also note that the 1 Hr 200 ma is the same as the 4 hr 50 ma and the 15 min 200 ma is the 1 hr 50 ma.

On my shopster template I have the 4 hr 50 and 20 ma plotted on the 5 and 15 min charts ( 960 & 2400 on 5 min and 320 & 800 on 15 min). When pairs are trending, signals on retracements to these mas can be low risk high reward set ups. They can also indicate support and resistance levels that are likely targets or bounce points during trend reversals or ranging markets.
 
Hi Comp,

Yeah, it a reasonable money line, so too the 50sma - the knee jerk went down and hit off the 50, was tempted to get in long right there, but still too big of a coward, especially since there is some jawing still to be done, but I'm still a bull right side, I'll give it just a little more time and then whoosh.

If the S&P stays strong then the Europeans will be in such a happy mood that they will all have their wallets out in the morning taking my buy with it - well that's the well thought out plan anyways.

Thinking of an entry around 2060, I do not like to buy on a limit, always guaranteed an entry when wrong with those things and then have to sit out stupid dd or worse - a stupid sl.

Anyways, time to sit back, relax, and listen to the heroine of the hour.
 
Well that was that, the Europeans very happily took out their wallets, I went long at 2059, but the ny guys might spoil the party so I have taken the money that was on offer.

May well enter later today, in the meantime mission accomplished, I've shown the mentals in right side of the chart living.

Here is the scenario just before the ny'ers came in.

Yellen's q&a was completely different to Draghio, she was measured, answered from the prepared script so little chance of stupid comments that would put traders in a spin, as soon as I saw this I simply hit the button, all doubts were alleviated.

That's the right side of the chart thinking (mentals) finished for 2015.

Take care.
 

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Party now over, the ny'ers came and spoiled the fun - all just typical S&P action over these last days.

If visualizing the right side I find things much easier to think in sessions, also, never let greed cloud judgement, I seldom think in terms of pips/points, just focus on the profit and when satisfied then accept the money.

One other little thing - the TA can lead a person wrong, I felt a possibility of a reversal on NY, just a sell off early in the session the little guy whispered, look, right at the money line, it will act as support.

I see a few traders listened to that whisper, I just stayed flat, not because I'm a smart ass, it's just that I haven't a clue what support is supposed to be, just figured guys were checking in and likely now off on hols.

So cue Jeronimo with a Christmas video...........
 

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Peterma said:
it's just that I haven't a clue what support is supposed to be

Here is what I notice that support can be.

Both charts hr1, s&p closed around the fig on Friday, but see spy, it continued to fall yesterday - now imagine selling yesterday in the expectation of a breakdown in price of spy, not probable since the S&P was supporting a rise.
 

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The above post this morning was emphasizing the fancy term of intermarket analysis,

Of course later in the day SPY opened gap up, fell back a little and then rose to remain a good buy for the day, the S&P chart above, you can see my buy entry, was made around 5,00 am NY time, around the time of post, so what was the catalyst, well actually the FTSE did the work, check out what was happening there at that time.

Not an unusual phenomenon at that time of day UK on FTSE, usually bullish until at least the S&P open, then just go with the flow.
It's just one market.
 

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Finally time to put this to bed.

Some guys often say that the markets are super thin at this time of year and therefore it is advisable for retail to stay out, I believe the opposite, markets are super TA friendly at this time of year, it seems there is less thinking to be done, so just go with the flow, follow the book.

Anyways, the fig (2060) is the point to get out.
 

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Follow up to the last post, exit was ok, see how TA followed through at this time of year, by the book.

Same yellow line, just keep it going, use what is out there, there is zero difference between FA and TA
 

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Good sir Peter,

It would seem unnecessarily cruel for me to delay any longer in pointing out this crucial fact to you. Whether you are already aware, or completely oblivious, it does not matter, what must be said must be said.

I will get straight to the point in informing you that your aesthetic preferences are very poor in your charting. Allow me to respectfully and clearly elaborate.

1. Your scaling is bizarre. Squashed charts are very strange. I prefer things to be spikier, but not so spikey as to be obnoxious - the price action must be immediately obvious however.

2. While I have no complaints toward your color scheme (I have been using the default MT4 colors myself as of late) I believe that you should make an honest attempt to fill-out your charts with some nice colors and contrast. I might suggest a nice zlagMACD or momentum indicator of your choice, nicely colored and contrasted of course. Perhaps a stoch thrown in there as well, along with 2-3 varied Moving Averages.

3. She wore blue velvet, woah oh. Bluer than velvet, was the night, woah oh oh oh. Softer than satin, was the light, from the stars.

I happily await your rectifications, and again sir, do not take this personally. I only inform you out of genuine concern for your aesthetic experience in charting.

To inspire you I will leave you with a great song favored among the pit traders of the 70s and 80s.

https://maitro.bandcamp.com/track/--4

Thank you.
 
Lol, thank you Chris for your kind words, your input is indeed timely since I am hard at work on my list of resolutions for this new year.

Prosperous year to everyone
 
Back to the fray.

Right side only, left siders are always right, then they hit the right side, then revenge, over lev, frustration, never learned about how to be wrong.

Anyways, right side, short GBP, also will have a hard look at S&P maybe warrants a buy soon, Chinese shit may soon settle, I hear they had a better day.

Btw, GBP - will explain the mentals there later - never fear being wrong :)
 
Just some more intermarket( FA crap) if you are feeling a little rusty and want to spread the risk or whatever, then just before I went long the S&P there was the yellow stuff, went short on it first, could see those UK guys were shaping up after China closed, must have liked a little risk on, will post all those fancy charts that Chris was talking about, whether I end up being right or wrong, later.
 
Ok, so it turned our right, but it's no big deal, I said about learning how to be wrong, equally important in learning about being right, an old timer cautioned "you are only as good as your last trade".

The mentals: I went short Gold, that trade now closed, because I figured it had been falling despite the shit going on in risk, also figured that a little risk would be back on the cards on a positive China day, figured the yanks would want back into stocks when they would awake from their beauty sleep, szzzzzzzzzz - wow look all is well.

Gold is a great accelerator in a sentiment change day, it will exaggerate the move, but often will dampen if there is no change - lot of words meaning that the probabilities lay with gold selling and stock buying, if no stock buying, then possibility of still some gold selling, still even possibility of gold selling and stock selling ......... off to Moe's

Oh,, GBP - it's sitting at b/e and doing nothing, so will let it sit -- have to postpone Moe's, have to babysit this S&P into the close, then Moe's

Btw, wish I could say that I used TA before entries on both, but in truth .. nah it just looks as if I did, oh is that an order block that I hear you guys on about?
(the top chart is Gold, just silver watching before exit)
 

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Oh - the silver thing, may as well post it since I'm babysitting - same hr1 chart as Gold, you can see why I was getting edgy and exited the Gold short:

Is that an order block?
 

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OK,next morning, babysitting all done.

This is one of the differences in short terming stocks and fx, last evening I couldn't go to Moe's because I know that when you have a mood swing like yesterday guys are often edgy, just like I was on Gold, and will hit the exit button very fast, , first silver gave the hint, then the gold shorts bailed (along with me) and sure enough the S&P longs did the same, so exit and then go to Moe's

Was I worried that I'd leave on the table? - no, talked about that attitude before, it fits poorly with short termers.

anyways, especially for Chris, one of the nicest charts that I could muster - crosshairs was babysitting time.

(Gbp short still open, will talk about that later)
 

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