ICT Advanced Price Action Trading Concepts
- Thread starter TheInnerCircleTrader
- Start date
sqa said:... He might do a London one, however. I just hope it's not London Open. I ain't sleeping much if that's true.
Probably quiet after a holiday in Japan and it's a bank holiday in UK this Monday so you should probably get some sleep. We need you rested so you can keep up with your note taking
AusDoc said:Probably quiet after a holiday in Japan and it's a bank holiday in UK this Monday so you should probably get some sleep. We need you rested so you can keep up with your note taking
Haha, I will be. If Michael is talking, I'm going to do my best to be there learning. You don't get opportunities like this often in Life, so I'm taking it while it's available.
I actually want to follow up the point I made in the previous comment, as I was chatting with a family member about this the other day.
In life, there are normally a few rare opportunities to learn from someone with key insights & experience. When they present themselves, taking hold of them is extremely useful. This is why I keep posting the extensive notes (even if they could be more extensive, realistically). Michael isn't selling BS: he knows what he's doing, why he's doing it and he has 0 reason to do this except because the results are one of the few things you can't buy in life. He's in the final process of making his own Money and calling it quits at the trading game, which means he can leave a legacy like few others.
As the first reports (and my own experience) with the Dealer's Range is showing, the teaching is insanely valuable. You just don't get this for the "cost" of Time and following a Twitter feed anywhere else in the World. It's a blessing & gift from Michael and, since it's given with an open hand, I'm going to take that which is given.
Still, not everyone has the Time like I do right now nor are capable of doing intensive trading. I can't offer much advice on the latter, but, for the former, I can at least provide insights I glean from Michael from the Webinars that don't get posted.
Lastly, if you're really new to Michael's (ICT) work, the Weekly Review videos from March 22 & May 2 are gold mines. You *need* to understand what Michael is drawing & why. Once you do, the entire game will make a whole lot of sense. Plus, Michael has one of the best tastes in Music in trading, haha.
In life, there are normally a few rare opportunities to learn from someone with key insights & experience. When they present themselves, taking hold of them is extremely useful. This is why I keep posting the extensive notes (even if they could be more extensive, realistically). Michael isn't selling BS: he knows what he's doing, why he's doing it and he has 0 reason to do this except because the results are one of the few things you can't buy in life. He's in the final process of making his own Money and calling it quits at the trading game, which means he can leave a legacy like few others.
As the first reports (and my own experience) with the Dealer's Range is showing, the teaching is insanely valuable. You just don't get this for the "cost" of Time and following a Twitter feed anywhere else in the World. It's a blessing & gift from Michael and, since it's given with an open hand, I'm going to take that which is given.
Still, not everyone has the Time like I do right now nor are capable of doing intensive trading. I can't offer much advice on the latter, but, for the former, I can at least provide insights I glean from Michael from the Webinars that don't get posted.
Lastly, if you're really new to Michael's (ICT) work, the Weekly Review videos from March 22 & May 2 are gold mines. You *need* to understand what Michael is drawing & why. Once you do, the entire game will make a whole lot of sense. Plus, Michael has one of the best tastes in Music in trading, haha.
bronxterp said:I'm having trouble viewing it. I get audio, but no video
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/codec?Portal=www.gotomeeting.com
Install Codec and use Windows Media Player
OR
Install VLC from 2.1.3 and beyond. VLC & GOMplayer aren't perfect, but they work.
OR
Manually Convert it via the instructions here:
http://superuser.com/questions/611934/the-g2m4-codec-of-go-to-meeting
Still took notes:
Live Stream 2014-05-05 Notes
As a neophyte, you want to chase price. You need to be at the point of anticipating movements.
Still in very tight markets, but occasional big moves.
With Cable & Fiber pretty dead right now, you can look for other opportunities, if that is your Trading Style.
ICT doesn't like to scalp because of the Time investment. Still doesn't look like Yen pairs, but is looking at AUD/JPY today.
More L-7 Range concepts, as you can tell Over-Bought/Over-Sold solely by knowing the Range.
Directional Premise is for Trending Environment and if you want to go with max risk exposure.
If you're looking to scalp a pair on a day...
YOU MUST USE LIMIT EXITS! - for scalping, or you're going to get slaughtered because you'll "marry the vein".
ICT still wants feedback on his Teaching. It motivates him, which is good for us!
L Range: Makes a High, trades down, goes side-ways, then moves back up into the Order Block.
ICT views a minimum Range expectancy of 40 pips as being room to take a trade. Reason why is a OTE back to a Retrace gives you room to at least take out 20 pips. Below that is extremely tight to otherwise get in & out without too much risk.
Risk to Reward is a bit of a myth, but if your setup shows up, it is a framework to set stops & take profits.
Eventually going to have exercises for putting in 20% drawdowns (on Demo accounts!) and then grinding your way out of that, as it's a skill no one teaches.
You HAVE TO HAVE clear cut rules, otherwise you're gambling.
Money is *easy* to get, once you have consistency in the Process. This is why putting the work in first is so important.
When you sit down at a chart, ask yourself: Where are the Ranges?
Someone needs to send ICT a mouse for his laptop, haha.
What's more important: Order Blocks or S&R? S&R because that is how you find where the Order Blocks exists.
Patience. When you get to a S&R, wait for the trades to setup, to see how the price reacts to the level.
Once you see the pair move away from a S&R, it's a Go-Signal to hunt your setup. Look for the Order Block *then*.
Wait for it to go to a Specific Price level @ a Specific Time Period. That's where we take trades.
When the Big Boys are in the market, they cannot hide their action. It's just that big.
Benefit of ICT concepts: Getting in at the right price, at the right time of day and expectation of movement.
It's not about the number of Pips, it's the management of your equity. Managing Equity with consistency is how you make money.
ICT asks to be allowed to brag a moment: Who makes 40% a month? HAHA!
ICT trades 4-6 times per months, Fiber & Cable, with 20% monthly return.
Have fixed targets for what you're after. Just make them sane.
The things ICT teaches aren't going to change.
ICT wants to see more people doing the Homework. Mess ups help ICT teach better. ICT wants to know where you're having problems.
When Range Bound, take your money and run!
Expect major S&R to hold, but you wait until Price responds to it.
ICT loving his Sniper references.
"Bread & Butter" trades is how you carve a career. You don't have to replace your income. How about just your Car Payment? Mortgage payment?
ICT loves Forex as an asset Class because of the Risk limitation and time-framing. But it's so much easier to deal with & Smart Money can't hide.
Understanding how to use Price Action:
- Use Support & Resistance.
- Anticipate the Reaction.
- When you get the Reaction, Find the Order Block.
- When you find the Order Block, Wait for Price to trade down (or up) into it.
- When it gets to the Time of Day, you want to see Price "jump" away from your Entry Point.
** Once you see the reaction and price moves away, take your stop up to Break Even. Don't give it back to them. **
** This is more important for Day Trading. ICT moves stop up to Break Even around +7 or +8 pips. **
This is a consistent trading pattern that will happen on multiple pairs each day, could just be on a different ones each days.
ICT's schedule is 7 am to 10 am.
Do not CHASE PRICE. Do NOT get upset about missing a trade.
Profitable != Good Trade. A good trade is properly setup and executed, not chasing it.
Taking Profits at Rigid Levels of Expected Price Movement!
Paper Trading FX: market your Chart, not taking Demo trades. Market out what you expect. That's how you Paper Trade it.
Teaching is ICT's hobby. Everyone will have a different story.
This week's Homework:
Go through every pair you Like/follow, and you see if there isn't an opportunity to Find 20 pips every day. As outlined in this scalping/Order Block method.
You will see this opportunities all over the place.
Question Period:
79% Retracement is a Price you'll almost never get. Chart shows it, but getting filled there is RARE.
Hourly Chart gives you much better ranges to work from.
Don't take a trade setup outside of a Kill Zone. It *could* do that, but don't chase those, as you'll get a chance at a different move tomorrow. There is always another trade to take.
"Higher Time Frame" are charts on the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4 Hour and 1 Hour. All can show Key S&R. We qualify those levels on Daily, 4 hour and 1 hour levels.
- ICT explains his scalping setup for Stops.
"Hard/Catastrophic Stop" on placing. He trades with a *MENTAL* stop that he keeps in mind, to kill the trade. 10-15 pips normally. "90% Fib level" gives him a chance to collapse trade early.
Point is to be trusting YOU, not ICT. So, do the work!
I'm sorry you missed it sqa, but I'm sure you'll love the video. I stayed up till 3 am (in Australia) to attend live and, like you, seriously value time spent learning from ICT. BTW, even though I was there, I still appreciate your notes. Thanks!
Was that May 2nd video you recommended the live NFP session or did you mean something else?
Was that May 2nd video you recommended the live NFP session or did you mean something else?
sqa said:
Anyone still having problems playing this video, I transcoded it into WMV9 format that's playable in VLC or any other video playback app that supports standard WMV files without the need for GoToMeeting's BS proprietary codecs.
Find the WMV9 version here:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tmpfxg/Finding_Opportunities_Now_WMP9_Version.wmv
(right click, save as..)
TheRumpledOne
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
sqa said:
ICT... I heard the comments about the RAT...LOL!!
"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE
GdayFx day trading video coming, make sure you watch it guys, and see what pair i have on the radar for possibly a huge move about to take place, leaving a selling bias for around 500 pips, has been bearish since Feb... waiting for bearish cycles atm, 1 already complete
Live Stream 2014-05-07 Notes:
Good Order Blocks vs Bad Order Blocks - full details coming soon!
Low faith in 15 & 5 minute Order Blocks, without the "Parent", HTF Order Block.
Don't force the Idea of an Order Block.
Step Back, look at where Price is Running Away From.
Forcing an Order Block on the Chart, is the same as forcing a Trade. If it's not there, it's not there.
Layout the Potential ones. See what Price does when it returns to a potential Order Block.
We like to see Candlestick patterns as confluence for an Order Block.
We WAIT. We haven't missed the boat, ours just hasn't come in yet.
"Qualified ICT Swing", needs a range of at least 40 pips, as it means it sets the stage for at least a 20 pip trade to take (with Spread).
ICT talks with his hands... while screen is captured. (I do this too, haha)
Should always take notes during a Live Session (he said it!)
Laying out reaction levels & using Limit Orders let you get in on moves.
Be sure to include the Spread.
For Buys: Don't cheat yourself on Entries. ICT will go 5 pips away from the level as part of the Spread.
For Sells: Right on the Level.
(Remember, the Bid Line is what is displayed on most Platforms)
When the Price moves hard into a previous Order Block (where you expect to take a trade), you want to see a reaction at your key level & think "future Order Block".
If a Trade is causing you problems in your head, either collapse it or take 1/2 the position off.
You want to get to the point where you aren't thinking about the Profit; you want to know that you're Losing when you take the Trade.
If you start "What If?" on the Trade, just close 1/2 of the trade. If you're that invested in losing 1%, then you shouldn't be in this business.
What happens AFTER you get into a trade is crucial to how you develop as a trader.
If you're asking God to fix your trade, you need to get out.
When ICT trades news, he's looking for the Over-reactions. Which includes a lot of major Funds.
ICT doesn't like to trade NFP, but he studies the Price Action, so see what the Price is showing for the future moves.
How to know Bull Market: Buy Order Blocks are respected, Sell Order Blocks are blown through. (Reverse for Bear Market)
5 Minute Chart for Timing, not Trade Setups.
Learn from mistakes, don't beat yourself up.
50% Fib into an Order Block is as far as ICT likes to see an Order Block violated. If it goes past that, it likely won't hold.
Central Bank's Dealer Range - use "CDR", as ICT is quite OCD.
ICT's Spin on Dealer Thinking:
(Picture #1)
Dealers have a large set of Orders, but they need to see where they are all stacked. In this scenario, they need to bring in the Large Funds (that trend follow) first, so they setup the Judas, to then get the pricing for the Smart Money.
It's not the Retail Stops they're after, but the training is the SAME! They're after Large Stops. This is why you need to know where the Stops are at.
"If everyone is doing this, why do I expect to make money?"
Trading is far easier when you strip away the nonsense in the trading culture/teaching.
Large Funds have juicy Stop Orders out there.
ICT using the Bus Riding analogy again. I have "Ghost Ride the Whip" stuck in my head.
Simply don't trade when things aren't clear. Don't force it.
With practice, you'll be able to judge if the market has the ability to blow through levels.
Those Highs & Lows before a Range Pull back, is generally where the Spread on a Dealer Desk (brokerage) will get wide enough to take out stops.
It's really about blowing out Stops and taking the positions of those that were "Right" on the move, but in too early.
Current Market Conditions (May 7th, London Close period):
- Website being redone, that'll make things a lot easier. So, bear with it. -
On May 6th, ICT missed the big run up in the Cable. Tools weren't giving a very solid entry. He was looking but didn't get in. Was a pre-London Open ADR blown through.
Was looking for a retracement on more than a very short period.
Days like this... ICT would try to go opposite on trending days like the 6th on the Cable. Lost a lot of money as an early trader doing that. Don't get in the way of a Freight Train.
The intra-day was giving high Risk to low Reward, after the ADR got blown early. Little certainty with a trade like this.
Volatility in the process of returning.
Market is holding higher than he likes. Seems like a trap for Shorts. ICT wasn't looking at any type of trade to take at that point.
Fiber doing the same type of event.
Explaining ICT Reflection pattern.
It let's you predict where pending Orders are, above a High/Low.
Which of the OTE (62, 70.5, 79) level to use? No way to know. ICT uses all 3, then searches for where the reaction levels would be. (Picture #2)
This is useful for Swing Highs & Low.
O-Row Pattern. (After ICT Reflection) Overlapping Reflection & Optimal Trade Entry. OROE or OROTE. Not sure I've seen ICT mention this before. (Picture #3, though short by a few pips)
Taking Questions for 20 minutes. With 75 minutes let on the video. We love Michael's thoroughness.
Question Period:
Once a 79% Fib is blown, a Range is "filled".
Picture #4: asked if this is a Bear market.
Notes on it: With this type of L-Range, the market has fulfilled all of its Selling, which means Buyers are now in control.
Also a "Wolf Wave" formation, which I haven't studied. (Street Smarts book plug)
Silver Chart: Looking at what to use: H4 or H1 Order Block.
Picture #5: Green Box is area that might also be sensitive, as the Order Block (for the Parent Price Swing) was retraced before the big move up. This is why ICT pulled from the Fib from the higher Low.
Looking at USDJPY Low on May 7th. The Low would be retested during Dealer's Range on the 8th.
Real example of the ICT Reflection pattern.
Yen-crosses make their moves earlier. If you trade them, be mindful.
Several people in the Webinar took this trade. (Good for them, this is a Swing Low)
Feedback is that people are starting to "get" the Order Block concepts. It pops out on the Charts to people. But you *need* the other tools to understand it all work it together.
If we're hunting Elk, we have to learn to track... Elk. You have to start at the beginning. That is what ICT has been up to.
If you submit to the process of learning, that's what it takes to learn to trade well.
Learn the Skill Set first, then you can trade real money. But only a very small amount at the beginning.
Focus on 1 pair (or 2 if they closely correlate), as you'll end up looking at too many things, while learning.
Picture #6: Exercise to do.
- Lay out Major S&R on H4 Chart
- Mark out the response Area
- Go to H1 Chart
- Identify a tradeable range (40+ pips)
- Go to M15 Chart
- See the Order Block formation (the rapid move away)
You have to get into the charts and see this stuff. STUDY! But this is a good way to practice it. Honestly.
ICT might finally buy a mouse for his Laptop.
When do you trust the Order Block?
- Have to look at the current Range, the HTF and what the market is currently doing. Just because an Order Block is created, it doesn't mean it'll be respected.
All of ICT's tools blend together. Not just 1 "works". It takes a lot of time and it's not just mechanical. Learn the skills. Over time, you'll find what you want.
It is rigged! That's why we want to follow the people that know what they're doing.
If you stay in the business long enough, you will lose a lot of money, just due to volume. (2% of a Lot of Money, is still a Lot of Money) Be mindful of what you're doing in a Demo Account is there for and why you practice in it. You're far more likely to lose money than make money.
Moral Discussion (Christian perspective on Trading):
- If you have Gifts, use them.
- And give of yourself.
A lot of opportunities evade retail traders due to time. That's what all of the tools are lining up to. The ability to place a limit Order for both Entry & Exit.
Filtering out the non-Institutional side will make you miss trades that are counter-trend, but it gives you time to get into the bigger trades.
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