Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (December 15 - 19, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market moved upwards by over 210 pips this week, after testing the support line at 1.2250. All indication points to the fact that short trades are no longer logical in the near-term. It is possible that the bears would gain control again before the end of this year, but right now, the outlook is bullish. A Break above the resistance line at 1.2500 would mean a stronger formation of the current bullish action.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness in the USD has enabled this pair to go downwards this week. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9800, but it could not close above it. From that resistance level, the pair trended downwards by around 160 pips, going below the resistance level of 0.9650. From here, the pair may reach the support level at 0.9600, and should the support level get broken to the downside. It would mean that the bulls have become powerless for now.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable went bullish this week, moving upwards in a slow and steady manner, and then moving sideways until the close of the market. Price closed at 1.5715 on Friday, December 12, 2014; above the accumulation territory at 1.5700. The distribution territory at 1.5750 has been tested and it could be tested again. With more strength in the market, another distribution territory at 1.5800 could be tested eventually, for that is the target for the bulls in the short-term. One thing, however, should be noted: Cable could become weak again before the end of this year.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY managed to go above the supply level at 121.50, but further bullish movement was rejected as price dived by more than 400 pips, testing the demand level at 117.50. It may look as though the bearish effort has been rejected at that demand level; nevertheless, the level could be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The situation on this cross is currently dicey. EUR is making effort to go bullish and JPY is nether weak. The market dropped seriously, which was contained at the demand zone of 146.50. From that demand zone, price has gone upwards by 150 pips, besieging the supply zone at 148.00. It is very much likely that the supply zone would give way, thus enabling the market to go towards another supply zone at 149.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“People often underestimate their ability and their right to be a trader… It is about a state of mind. Having the belief you can win in trading and controlling your emotions to think clearly even when things are going against you, this makes a professional trader.” – Steve Ruffley

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (December 22 - 26, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair tested the resistance line at 1.2550 before further upward movement was rejected. From that resistance line, price went down by over 300 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.2250. This has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and price is supposed to continued going further downwards this week, possibly reaching the support lines at 1.2200 and 1.2150 respectively.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF broke below the support level at 0.9600; but it was unable to stay below that support level. Price moved upwards significantly, moving far above the support level at 0.9800. This has resulted in a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and price is supposed to continued going further upwards this week, probably challenging the resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900 successively.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a very volatile market, caused by the ongoing struggle between the bears and the bulls. Looking at the market more closely, it would be seen that the bears are winning the battle gradually and they can maintain their subtle supremacy within the next several trading days. The accumulation territory at 1.5550 is a formidable barrier to the interests of the bears. However, with a continuation of the strength in Greenback, that accumulation territory could be breached to the downside.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument dipped seriously at the beginning of last week, going below the demand level at 116.00. After that, the bulls came in with fury and drove price northwards, making it to go above the demand level at 119.00. The supply level at 119.50 is currently being battered and there is a high chance that it would be breached to the upside, for price might target another supply level at 120.50 this week or next week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross should normally go upwards; nevertheless, the weakness in EUR is too much to allow any significant bullish movement. In spite of desperate effort by the bulls, the outlook remains bearish. The demand zone at 145.00 has a high chance of being challenged, even if there would be a rally after that.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“How do you make money in the market? It’s not by predicting. Instead, it’s by watching what the market is doing and then going with the flow.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (December 29, 2014 – January 2, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURUSD trended downwards last week, closing below the resistance line at 1.2200. Since the recent bullish attempt was rejected at the resistance line of 1.2550, price has dived by over 360 pips, resulting in a very strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bearish bias may continue till the end of this year, enabling price to test the support lines at 1.2150 and 1.2100 respectively.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has continues its upward journey in a slow and gradual manner (thanks to the ongoing strength in Greenback). Since the recent bearish pull was rejected around the support level at 0.9550, price has skyrocketed by more than 320 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9850 last week. The next victim of the bulls’ assault is the resistance level at 0.9900, which could even be breached to the upside as price can target another resistance level at 0.9950, especially with the continuation of the strength of the USD. Could the USD ultimately reach parity with the CHF? This seems likely.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is also a bear market. It fell towards the accumulation territory at 1.5500 before the current upward bounce happened in the market. Price is currently hovering around the distribution territory at 1.5550, not being able to go far above it at the present. Price may go south from here, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5500 again. Technically, further upward bounce may be rejected at the distribution territory of 1.5600.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a strong currency trading instrument, supported by the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price trended upwards last week and consolidated till the end of the week. Being above the demand level at 120.00, further northward movement is expected here – which can continue into January 2015.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross ought to be bullish just like some other JPY pairs, but the weakness in Euro is still very much. In spite of the effort by the bulls, the bears still flex their muscles conspicuously. Price is currently threatening to go down, with the possibility of testing the demand zone at 146.00. Should the bears lose out suddenly, price can try the supply zone at 148.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“One thing that never changed was my need for inner freedom. I believe to this day that trading is the most interesting vehicle to enjoy ultimate freedom. I am not only talking about financial freedom. That’s a mere bagatelle in comparison to the emotional freedom I received as a present along the trading way.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

 

[analyst75]

Yearly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the year 2015:

EURUSD
Long-term trend: Bearish
This pair trended southward for most of last year. In May 2014, price topped at 1.3993 and since then, it started moving south (a movement of around 1890 pips). Last year, price closed at the low of 1.2101, challenging the support line at 1.2100. From here, price could go further south a little before it turns bullish. Should this become true, the bullish run may last till the end of February 2015. In March and April, serious volatility is expected in the market, but the bears may gain upper hands from May till August; though the bearish pressure may be punctuated with occasional rallies. There is a possibility that the bearish pressure would thin out in November, enabling price to go upwards before the bears start to fight for dominance again around December.

USDCHF
Long-term trend: Bullish
This market trended seriously upwards last year, closing at 0.9936 at the end of the year. The last year’s close was above the support level of 0.9900, while price has already gone upwards above the psychological level at 1.0000, enabling USD to reach parity with CHF. Looking at the historical data, the current uptrend started in March 2014 and gained a serious momentum a few months later. From the support level at 0.8700, price skyrocketed by roughly 1240 pips. This bullish bias has potential to continue briefly, but the risk of a large pullback is now very high. Price may become very weak at any time. Nevertheless, the outlook may become bullish again in April and May 2015, while the bears and the bulls would continue their power tussle till September. That is the month in which the bears may likely gain upper hands (also in October). The market may become seriously bullish again in November, which is a situation that could hold out till the end of the year.

GBPUSD
Long-term trend: Bearish
The long-term bias on GBPUSD is also bearish, just like EURUSD. Price trended upward from the beginning of the year 2014 until the end of July: reaching a high of 1.7197. From that distribution territory, price nosedive for the rest of that year. It nosedived by about 1650 pips. Closing at 1.5580, the bearish movement still has much room to continue seriously till the end of February 2015, though the possibilities of transitory rallies cannot be ruled out on the way. Price may rally in March and remain so till early May; after which a period of high volatility will follow. There might also be another run of a dominant bullish bias in September and October, before another serious selling pressure resumes and stays till the end of the year.

USDJPY
Long-term trend: Bullish
This currency trading instrument has had one of its strongest rallies in recent times. The last significant rally started in August 2014 and held out till the end of that year: while dips in price offered novel opportunities to go long. Generally the uptrend that started in August enabled price to move upwards by over 1.900 pips, as price reached a yearly high of 121.83. From that point, further northward movement has become a kind of difficult, for price experienced large pullbacks in December 2014 (closing at 119.79 in that month). This year, the bullish trend would continue till the middle of April 2015, albeit not without threats from the bears. This trading instrument could become weak from the middle of May till early October – causing high momentum and significant movement. Price would, however, rally again before the end of December this year.

EURJPY
Long-term trend: Bullish
Like other JPY pairs, this cross also trended upward last year. The upward trend was the strongest in the months of October and November 2014. In December, price was unable to trend upwards significantly and as a result of that, the outlook has become bearish in the near-term. One cause of this is the weakness of the EUR itself. Price now has a good probability of going bullish from now till April 2015, and it may become weak between July and October of this year (with the bears and the bulls engaging in a cut-throat struggle for supremacy in May and June). The rest of the year would then be subjected to the strength of JPY itself. Strength in JPY may result in a vivid downtrend; and vice versa.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“We have a brain in our heads. I think we should use it to apply a little discretion and common sense to our trading.” – Dave Landry

 

[analyst75]

Traders, Don’t Be Like Mr. Geoffrey!

“Anyone who has been involved in the markets has been humbled and respects the fact that this is not an easy game no matter how successful we have already been or how much experience we have.” – Charles E. Kirk

About 4 years ago, Mr. Geoffrey* came to me and said he wanted to learn Forex trading. I explained to him that training would take some months because there were crucial aspects of this business that people tended to ignore and we’d need to work on those areas.

The training began. Initially, Geoffrey showed interest, but as time went on, he lost patience. He told me that since he knew how to buy, sell, close trades and handle basic operations of trading platforms, he wouldn’t want to waste time with further training. He confessed that he’d just purchased a semi-automated trading software which would make him rich very quickly. He showed me the historical results of the strategy as published by the vendors – 4000% returns in one year!

I tried to caution him against greed, but he thought I was a doubting Thomas who wanted to discourage him from speedy attainment of financial freedom. I was too conservative for him. Geoffrey took a high-interest loan of $5,000 and started trading with it, using that semi-automated strategy. He constantly let me know how his trading was. I saw that he was risking 20% per trade and I warned him against that, telling him that 1% risk per trade would be OK instead.

“I want to pay my kids’ school fees,” he retorted.

He was able to pay the school fees that week. Even he made additional $120,000 within the next 2 months, on that account, and therefore, he was lucky enough to pay back the loan with the interest on it. His plan was to raise the remaining balance to $1,000,000 before he withdrew everything. I was jealous of his achievement, I began to feel like a fool with the so-called trading beliefs I held on to.

Without mincing words, Dr. Woody Johnson says there are traders who have good market knowledge, a good plan, and good money management but fail to keep their commitments and follow-through with the plan. I discovered that Geoffrey didn’t use stops; he preferred to run negative trades until they came back to entry prices. The strategy he was using had stop loss recommendations included in it, but he ignored those recommendations. I warned him against his failure to use stops.

“Come off it, man. Stops are for chickens.” He rejoined.

I ceased giving him advice.

One day, he messaged me on Skype, asking me what went wrong with British economy since the Cable was dropping like a stone. I replied that I knew that kind of drop was normal, so I didn’t bother to know what caused it. He said nothing in return.

At times, the markets may show sensitivity to fundamental figures and move accordingly; at times, the markets may ignore the fundamentals. After a few days the Cable was still dropping. He messaged me again on Skype, asking me the question below.

Should I close the trade?

I didn’t know the trade he was talking about, neither did I advised him to open the trade. So, why would I advise him to close the trade? He opened the trade himself and he should be responsible for the outcome of the trade. His position size was suicidal; plus his trade management technique was dangerous. I didn’t respond to his question.

Later I began to empathize with Geoffrey. I was aware that something was strong with his trading, so I decided to visit him. I met him yelling at his hen.

“You unfortunate hen! You’ve been incubating your eggs for over 40 days without hatching them. Your mates hatch theirs within 21 days, but you’re here showcasing your uselessness. If you want to hatch your eggs, hatch them quickly. If you’re not ready to hatch, get out of my sight!”

Geoffrey was extremely bitter as a result of the adverse condition affecting his trading capital and he was talking it out on the poor hen. He chased the hen away.

As I entered Geoffrey’s trading room, I saw that his account was down by -$100,000. He’d previously raised it to +$180,000. He became overconfident and began to risk 30% per trade (without stop loss). He’d a few positions that were in favor of the Cable because his semi-automated strategy generated a ‘buy’ signal. The rally that acted as the cause of the ‘buy’ signal was a mere rally that trapped the bulls before the currency pair assumed a significantly long-term downtrend.

As I was watching the chart, another fundamental figure affecting the GBP was released. The effect aided the continuation of the downtrend. The market, which had dropped by over 800 pips already, dropped by another 150 pips. Geoffrey suffered.

I was unable to say anything – I felt very sorry for him.

Eventually, Geoffrey closed his positions. The new available balance was less than $1,500. At least, he was able to avoid a margin call, wasn’t he?

I won’t mention the consequences Geoffrey faced as a result of his foolishness.

Like some long trades at the time, the bullish gains quickly evaporated. However, while Geoffrey was badly affected, certain traders have learned how to survive that kind of price action; they’ve even learned how to make money from that.


This article is ended by this quote:

“As dedicated as I became, it was not until I was able to both profit and protect my gains that I considered myself a successful trader.” – Chris Ebert

*This is not his real name.

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 12 - 16, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURUSD assumed its southward journey on January 2, 2015, going further and further south in the following week. Price went below the support line at 1.1800, and then consolidated until the end of the week. There is now a slight rally, which could portend the start of buying pressure when price crosses the resistance line at 1.1900 to the upside, going towards another resistance line at 1.2000. The support lines at 1.1800 and 1.1700 remains a barrier to further southward movements.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since USD reached parity with CHF, this pair has moved further upwards by 200 pips, enabling price to test the resistance level at 1.0200. There is a minor pullback in the market, which could mean the beginning a near-term bearish run, provided that the great support level at 1.0000 is unable to contain more bearish correction. On the other hand, a break above the resistance line at 1.0200 could mean the continuation of the existing bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish, going downwards by over 200 pips on January 2, 2015, and going further downwards by over 200 pips last week. The accumulation territory 1.5050 was tested before the current upwards bounce in the market. The upwards bounce has taken price above the accumulation territory at 1.5150. While it is possible for price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5250, the probability of pullbacks reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5050 again exists.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/JPY remains volatile, with short-term victories of the bulls and the bears. In the past few weeks, this pair has been unable to remains above the supply level at 120.50, and as a result of this, the near-term bias has become bearish. In the face of the recent swings in the market, the demand levels at 118.00 and 117.50 could be tested. The supply levels at 120.00 and 120.50 should also act as impediment to rallies in the market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the beginning of this month, this current trading instrument has moved south by more than 450 pips, which contributed to the strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday, January 9, 2015, price closed at 140.32, on a bearish note. Since it closed below the supply zone at 140.50, it may be easier for the demand zone at 139.50 or 139.00 to be tested, although there could be a strong rally after that.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“Realize that there is no holy grail and that a simple approach with proper money management can actually work.” – Dave Landry

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 19 - 23, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved downwards by over 300 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.1459. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and price may test the support line at 1.1450, even if there would be an upwards bounce after that. On the other hand, there is a possibility that the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 could be challenged.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is now an abnormal market, since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the peg on EURCHF and cut their interest rate, which is currently negative. This happened on January 15, 2015 and it has had extremely huge impact on all CHF pairs, including USDCHF. For example, CHFJPY rose by over 2400 pips, reaching a high of 138.97; and USDCHF nosedived by over 2800 pips, reaching a low of 0.7309. This happened in one day, plus similar unusual volatility happened on all CHF pairs. These kinds of movements in a single day are extremely spectacular, and therefore, current CHF pairs’ prices are bound to get corrected in the long run and things would return to normal in a matter of weeks. For instance, when USDCHF dropped like a stone, EURUSD ought to spike skywards, since they are negatively correlated in a normal condition. The latter was not affected, and both pairs cannot remain bearish for a long time (and Greenback is strong in its own right). USDCHF would, therefore, move upwards by at least, 500 pips this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable made noticeable effort to go bullish last week, but further bullish effort was halted at the distribution territory of 1.5250, and since then, there has been a bearish retracement in the market. On Friday, January 16, 2015, price closed around the distribution territory at 1.5150. More bearish movement is expected this week; the price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The general outlook on this currency trading instrument is weak – though price is making some effort to go upwards in a context of the downtrend. The demand levels at 116.50 and 116.00\ could be tested this week (whereas the same demand levels could defend further southerly thrust). Bullish effort could enable price to test the supply levels at 118.00 and 118.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped by over 400 pips last week, closing at 135.97 on Friday. Generally, it has dropped by over 1000 pips since the beginning of this year. The current shallow rally pales into insignificance when compared to the overall bias – bearish. The only thing that can change the situation is the weakening of the Yen, which could happen this week or next.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading wasn’t the hardest thing for me to learn. The hardest thing to learn by far was how to let go of the old patterns that had stopped serving me.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

 

[analyst75]

CHF Pairs Volatility – a Blessing and a Curse

“It’s futile to call the trade before it happens. One can never know beforehand if a trade is
going to be a day trade, a short term trade of days or weeks or a long term trade of weeks up to months. Every trade develops from the embryonic stage of the smallest form on the smallest time scale.” – Dirk Vandycke

How It Started
On September 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a decision to put a peg at the 1.2000 level on EUR/CHF. They did so because they wanted to stabilize the export industry and the whole economy. It meant that EUR wasn’t allowed to reach parity with CHF, unlike other CHF pairs. That previous support level was referred to as a great floor, and the SNB would keep on purchasing vast amounts of Euros to preclude it from depreciating against Swiss Francs.

In the year 2011, EURCHF was below the level 1.2000. In fact, EURCHF plummeted by more than 2800 pips that year, reaching a low of 1.0069. After the peg was effected, the cross jumped upwards above the level 1.2000. In the year 2012, price became very weak, but it was unable to close below the level at 1.2000. Any time price went below the level, it would jump above the level again.

In the year 2013, price was able to trade upwards noticeably, owing to the strength in the Euro. Price was able to move upwards by over 500 pips, reaching a high of 1.2648. In the year 2014, price trended downwards in a slow and steady manner until it reached the floor at 1.2000 again at the end of that year. Many saw this as a peerless opportunity to buy EURCHF cross.

EURCHF then looked like ‘an unfair’ market in which everybody could make money. It was like a market in which everybody could harness huge gains, and certain lovers of risk might be willing to risk a huge part of their portfolios. Many thought it was stupid go short on EURCHF, since there was a “guarantee” that the cross would eventually go up, just like interest rates in some developed countries, which some thought had nowhere to go expect upwards. Some didn’t even know that interest rate could be made negative. The only thing that could render the scenario useless was when the peg was removed – which the SNB was unwilling to do then.

January 15, 2015 – Magnificent Earthquakes in the Markets
Nevertheless, it was getting more and more expensive for the SNB to defend the peg. A central bank would need a very deep pocket to keep on doing that for a long time. The SNB reserves increased to a record high and the outlook on Euro was becoming more and more gloomy. It was clear that holding onto that floor was illogical. On January 15, 2015, the SNB suddenly removed the peg and decreased the interest rate further into the negative territory. The trading world was taken by surprise. Some traders made huge profits and losses. Only those who didn’t trade CHF pairs weren’t seriously affected.

USDCHF dropped by 2800 pips.
EURCHF dropped by 3300 pips
GBPCHF dropped by 4300 pips
CADCHF dropped by 1500 pips
CHFJPY rallied by 6900 pips
NZDCHF dropped by 1500 pips
AUDCHF dropped by 1500 pips

These moves were unprecedented! A daily candle was as long as a human arm! While it is normal for a pair/cross to experience a directional movement of thousands of pips within several days, weeks or months, it’s not normal for a pair/cross to move so much in a single day. The market is like a rubber band, if it moves to far in one direction, you should expect it to snap back in the opposite direction. Thus there were significant corrections on that day alone.

Neither the SNB nor the markets can be blamed for this: a central bank has the right to do what they want with their currency. In addition, the markets conditions that brought losses to some were the same conditions that brought profits for some. Good risk managers suffer negligible loss when caught on the wrong side of the market, and they make commendable gains when they’re caught on the right side.

Lessons for Gamblers
I know someone who made a profit of 7,000,000 Euros in 2 hours. Someone who funded his account with 100 dollars and was using 0.1 lots made 2600% returns in a single day. Someone who funded his account with 1000 dollars and traded with 0.5 lots came home from work and saw an account balance of over 10,000 dollars. Many brokers now need to pay their clients gargantuan amounts of profits.

If you made huge profits here, like several hundreds of percentage of profits, it was only a matter of luck; and no trader can experience permanent success based on pure luck. Good traders are those who survive adverse market conditions, not only those who make big money from the markets.

On the other hand, many traders received margin calls or lost most part of their portfolios. Imagine someone using 60.0 lots on a 1,000,000 pounds account. Needless to say, the money was lost immediately. Certain brokers were badly affected (though most brokers were unaffected). I deeply empathize with those who were badly affected.

I was also affected, for I was holding two long positions on EURCHF and NZDCHF, but I suffered only -1.2% losses in total. My loss should be only 1% on the 2 trades, but you know, slippage. Stops will forever be our life insurance policy. If you follow the advice of those who don’t use stops, your losses can’t be their responsibility.

Do you remember the May 6, 2010 Flash Crash? Do you remember the earthquake in Japan, which occurred on March 11, 2011, plus the nuclear disaster that followed? Do you know the effects they had on the markets? Do you know how traders were affected and what happened following massive drops in prices? These should serve as lessons against the Gambler’s Fallacy. Unfortunately, many people seemed not to learn their lesson.

Overconfidence is definitely not a good thing.

As you can see, whether you trade with fundamental or technical analysis or combine both, you don’t know what the market will do next and you can’t be always right. Even those who prognosticated that the peg would be removed didn’t know when exactly it would be. When things go wrong, only risk control will help you, not your knowledge of technical or fundamental things. It’s better to focus on what we can control – our winners and losers.

It’s not the best to sacrifice permanent success for short-term greed. Those who appear stupid by doing the right things would eventually be proven to be prudent.

When I recommend the risk of 0.5% per trade, most people ignore me. In fact, you’d hardly see someone using only 0.1 lots on a $20,000 dollars account or 0.5 lots on a $100,000 dollars account. They think it’s too illogical and conservative, playing down my warning that the safety of our portfolios are more important that the profits we want to make. Large losses are extremely difficult to recover and therefore, they should be avoided at all costs. The most guaranteed setup in the world can’t make me risk more than 0.5% on any of my future trades.

I’ve been an advocate of permanent success, but it can’t be achieved by those who use large position sizes. Leverage isn’t a problem, but an irrational use of leverage is the problem. Leverage is a boon to risk managers who know how to control their losses and profits.

Next Directions on CHF Pairs
The SNB might still try to keep the CHF undervalued and they may explore another means of doing so. Opportunities to go long arose when prices decline towards ridiculously abnormal levels. These kinds of movements in a single day are extremely spectacular, and therefore, current CHF pairs’ prices are bound to get corrected in the long run and things would return to normal in a matter of weeks. For instance, when USDCHF dropped like a stone, EURUSD ought to spike skywards, since they are negatively correlated in a normal condition. The latter was not affected, and both pairs cannot remain bearish for a long time (and Greenback is strong in its own right). USDCHF would, therefore, move upwards by at least, 500 pips this month or next month.

These kinds of markets offer unique opportunities to assume contrarian positions. At the end of January 15, 2015, I went long on EURCHF, USDCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF, GBPCHF and CADCHF (selling short CHFJPY), using a position size of 0.1 lots for each $20,000. I target 500 pips on each trade. I’d hold these long positions for weeks or months – until all the targets are met. I won’t make use of breakeven or trailing stops this time around because I want to create enough leeway for the high volatility in the markets, while I enjoy the free ride.

The bearish pair and crosses cannot remain bearish forever. The CHF markets are expected to correct themselves gradually until things become normal. As some bask in the euphoria of windfall and others lick their wound, we shouldn’t forget the lessons we learn from the CHF pairs volatility, which were a blessing and a curse.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“If you trade at a size that’s nearly meaningless, there will be very little emotions involved. However, if you are taking on big risks you will make emotional mistakes.” – Dave Landry

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 26 - 30, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The EUR is now one of the weakest currencies among popular currencies, having dropped by roughly 900 pips since the beginning of this year. The support line at 1.1150 has already been tested and it would be tested again (it can even be breached to the downside), as it is supported by a vivid Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook for this week is bearish – continuous selling pressure is expected and there is a great possibility that EUR could reach parity with USD.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on USDCHF remains unchanged. On Friday, January 23, 2015, price closed at 0.8784. As EURUSD is weak, USDCHF ought to be strong, and the strength would continue to come gradually in the context of a bearish outlook. Price should continue to move upwards this week, in a slow and steady manner.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
One nice thing about Cable is that it is now going in a clean positive correlation with EURUSD. The two pairs tend to go in positive correlation with each other – an established habit. Cable and EURUSD are both dropping, but the drop in the latter is more significant than the drop in the former. On Cable, further drop is expected this week, which may be more serious than the drop that was seen last week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
When compared to the EURJPY, this pair did not move so much recently. Upswings are alternated by downswings, though the bears are able to make their presence felt. Price may be able to reach the demand level at 116.50, but there is possibility that the bulls would end up dominating the market before the end of this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument made some effort to rally last week. From the beginning of that week, price went upwards by 200 pips, reaching the supply zone at 137.50. However, further upwards movement was rejected at that supply zone, and price dived steeply, reaching the demand zone at 131.00. There is a negligible upward bounce in the market, which means almost nothing when compared to the overall bias. Generally, this instrument has dropped by over 1300 pips since the beginning of this year. Price may test the demand zones at 131.00 and 130.00, but it would go further below only in the face of continued weakness in the Euro, for there is a possibility that the yen would become weak before the end of this month.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“In my opinion trading is the only way to protect and increase your capital in the long term. But I am not saying that you need to become a day trader. There are many and also long term ways to trade.” – Julian Komar

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 2 - 6, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The outlook on this market remains bearish. Price made serious bullish attempts, reaching the resistance line at 1.1400 and then consolidated till the end of last week; all in the context of a downtrend. This week, the downward trend can continue, enabling price to reach the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150 respectively. Only a break above the resistance line at 1.1450 could render the existing bearish outlook invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The long-term bias on USD/CHF is bearish, but in the near-term the bias is bullish. For the past two weeks, the market has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner as, forecasted earlier. Should this slow and steady bullish journey continue for the next few weeks, the overall bias could turn bullish. However, occasional but transitory pullbacks are expected in the journey to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
On Cable, it can be seen that last week was characterized by a serious battle between the bulls and the bears, which resulted in serious swings in the market. Price reached a high of 1.5222 and a low of 1.4987 last week. There is a distribution territory at 1.5200; plus an accumulation territory at 1.5200. Further weakness can make Cable reach the accumulation territory at 1.5000 again. Overall, the outlook is bearish and it would remain so: unless the distribution territory at 1.5200 is breached to the upside and price is able to remain above it.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There was no much activity in this market last week; except occasional short-term upswings and downswings in the market. This week, it is either the supply level at 119.00 is breached to the upside or the demand level at 117.00 is breached to the downside. A breach of the former would result in a new lease of bullish energy, and a break in the latter would result in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. But right now, this is an equilibrium market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Despite significant attempts from the bulls to push up the price last week, the outlook in the market is bearish. From the demand zone at 130.50, price went upwards, reaching the supply zone at 134.00. On Friday, January 29, 2015, price closed at 132.66, on a bearish note. The weakness in this cross is still in place - only a break above the supply zone at 135.50 could really endanger the extant bearish outlook.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Since the market provides us with an infinite number of opportunities—and will continue to do so as long as human nature remains what it is, only fill your bowl with what you can carry on each trade.” – Dr. Ken Long

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 9 - 13, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In this market, the bullish effort last week was rendered useless when price headed back towards the support line at 1.1300, which was an important support line last week. This support line may be slashed this week; plus the target for the bears is located at the support line at 1.1200. Unless price breaches the resistance line at 1.1500 to the upside and closes above it, it would be assumed that bearish pressure remains in force.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/CHF has been moving upwards slowly since January 15, 2015. The perpetual upwards movement has been strong enough to enable the bias to turn bullish. Although this pair is currently far from reaching the level it was prior to the January 15 magnificent earthquakes, price would continue its steady upwards journey. While journeying upwards, there would be occasional pullbacks, which would be transitory in nature.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
From the accumulation territory at 1.5000, this pair went upwards, reaching the distribution territory 1.5350. This market movement of 350 pips has been significant enough to bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The accumulation territory at 1.5000 has become a formidable defense for the bulls because price has been unable to go breach it successfully in the last few weeks. Although there is a slight bearish correction in the market, it is expected that further bearish attempts would be stubbornly challenged at the accumulation territory of 1.5000.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument experienced a northward breakout last week. Before this event, the market had been moving in a tight range for a few weeks, not being able to close below the level at 117.00 or above the level at 119.00. The upward break that occurred last week has enabled price to close above the demand level at 119.00 on Friday, February 6, 2015. Price closed at 119.15 and it could resume the northward journey this week, for the signal in the market is currently a “buy.”

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The uncertainties surrounding the Euro are one of the reasons why this popular cross has not gone seriously bullish, although the efforts of the bulls can be perceived in the market. The existing bearish bias is potentially in danger, for the outlook on most JPY pairs is now bullish. A break above the supply zone at 136.00 would mean the beginning of a smooth northward movement; otherwise things remain downbeat.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“A consistent 12%-20% annual return will put you in league with some of the best money managers in the world.” - Steve Burns

 

[Chrisrocs]

Damn this guy just keeps going, hes like a robot. Haha, I haven't actually read any of your forecasts, but I find this thread pretty funny. Especially with the quotes at the end. It's like you're signing off on a late night radio station or something.

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 16 - 20, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the recent bias on this market is bearish, it should be noted that bulls have been making effort to push price higher. Price consolidated last week and traded upwards a little, closing at 1.1390, on Friday, February 13, 2015 . The outlook for this week (and for the rest of the month) is bullish. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1500 would lead to a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is currently volatile as bulls and bears engage in power tussle, leading to a vivid equilibrium movement. The current bias is bullish but there is a probability that the pair would no longer trade upwards in a significant mode this week. This is because EURUSD may move north, and as a result of this, the negative correlation effect may pose a challenge to the bullish bias, causing some pullbacks in the market.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable - which assumed a bullish bias a few weeks ago – experienced a smooth bullish run at the latter end of last week. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5200 and reached the distribution territory at 1.5400: a movement of 200 pips. The distribution territory at 1.5400 is currently being battered and it could give way for further northward trend. This week, price could challenge another distribution territory at 1.5500.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, USDJPY rose from the demand level at 118.50, almost reaching the supply level at 120.50 (another move of 200 pips). From around the demand level at 120.50, the pair has dived, thereby rendering the effort of the bulls useless. Between the supply level at 119.00 and the demand level at 118.50, price has become volatile. Only a break below the demand level at 118.00 could render the recent bullish bias invalid. Without that, price may rise upward from here.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Indeed, this cross made some commendable effort to go upward last week. Short trades are not currently recommended in this type of market, because it is expected that the cross would continue to meander its way upwards this week and next week, although not without visible attacks from bears. This expectation is logical as long as price stays above the demand zone at 134.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“A trader who feels serene and relaxed can focus on looking for the best and safest trades.” – Dr. Alexander Elder

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 23 - 27, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
This market is not currently favorable for swing trading, except intraday trading or scalping. This is because the market has not moved protractedly in a vivid direction for weeks. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450, and a break below that support line or that resistance line would determine the next direction of the market, especially when price closes below the support line at 1.1300 or closes above the resistance line at 1.1450. A close above the resistance line at 1.1450 is more probable because there is a possibility that EUR would rally this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The movement on this pair is more conspicuous than the movement on EURUSD. In order to see what this market is doing more clearly, it is better to use timeframes that are smaller than the daily chart and the 4-hour chart, like the hourly chart or the 30-minute chart. The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the near-term and price moved upwards by 200 pips last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9500. From that resistance level, price experienced some bearish retracement of 140 pips, making it to close below the resistance level at 0.9400. Further southward correction could make the near-term bias on this pair turn bearish.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the bias on the Cable is still bullish, we may see some weakness in this currency trading instrument this week. On Friday, February 20, 2015, price closed at 1.5396, leaving a lower high formation in the market. While price may reach the distribution territory at 1.5500, the northward movement can be limited this week because a possibility of downward movement is greater.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This market has not moved significantly recently and therefore, price is in an equilibrium phase; being swayed by alternating buying and selling pressure, which is invariably transitory. The demand zone at 118.00 remains a good challenge to southward attempt and there is a possibility that the market can go above the supply level at 120.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This cross is also in an equilibrium phase. A price plunge on Friday was quickly followed by an ensuing rally. Price may continue going upward this week or next week, and a movement above the supply zone at 136.50 would result in a bullish Confirmation Pattern.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“Few financial markets generate as much excitement and profitability as the Forex market does.” – Cornelius Lukas

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 2 - 6, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market, which was in an equilibrium phase for a few weeks, experienced further weakness last Thursday. Price dropped by 180 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.1200. While price might saunter into the territory below the resistance line at 1.1100, it may not be able to go down further from there. The outlook for the EUR is bullish for this week, and therefore, price may rally by 100 – 200 pips any day in the week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
One would expect that USDCHF would go northward seriously, just as EURUSD went southward seriously. However, the bullish movement on USDCHF has been limited, for bears are making effort to drag the pair lower. Should price fail to go above the resistance level at 0.9550, it may experience some bearish correction which may take the price lower towards the support levels at 0.9500 and 0.9450.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on Cable is bullish and it went upwards at the beginning of last week, reaching the distribution territory at 1.5550. Price failed to close above that distribution territory and got corrected downwards, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5400. There is a possibility that Cable may test the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250 this week, thus rending the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market useless.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This currency trading instrument has not moved upwards or downwards in a significant mode so far. Price gallivants between the demand level at 119.00 and the supply level at 120.00. One thing is noteworthy: this instrument may trend higher from here, breaking the aforementioned supply level to the downside, and thus targeting another supply level at 130.00. The outlook for all JPY pairs for this week and for the rest of the month of March 2015, is bullish.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the recent weakness on EUR, this cross experienced a moderate bearish trend. Price moved downwards but further downwards movement was rejected at the demand zone of 133.50. On Friday, February 27, 2015, price closed at 133.93, making a weak bullish effort. As it has been mentioned before, Yen is supposed to be weak this week (and for the most part of this month). Short trades are not recommended on JPY pairs – including EURJPY. A rally is expected on this cross any day.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Obviously, I need to do something with regards to the markets. That's my passion. Trading is the best way to be connected with the market…” - Julian Marchese

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 9 - 13, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bullish expectation on EURUSD has not materialized, for price dropped by over 300 pips. Indeed, last week saw the weakest movement on EURUSD since February 2015. Price has closed below the resistance line at 1.0850 and it could even reach the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0700. Unless EUR is fated to reach parity with USD, the worst case-scenario on this market should not take it below the great support line at 1.0500. This week, bulls may make some effort to halt or reverse the current bearish trend.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument moved upward by over 300 pips last week, owing to the weakness in CHF and the strength in USD. Price was able to move above the resistance level at 0.9850 and stays there, threatening to go towards the resistance level at 0.9900. Even the resistance level at 0.9950 is not safe from bullish attacks, because the bulls still have lots of energy left in them. The only thing that can change the course of the battle is an exponential stamina in EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD, which is positively correlated with EURUSD, also fell southward last week, going below the distribution territory at 1.5050. A movement of 380 pips in one week is not something to be ignored, since this has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. While the bearish movement is according to expectation, there may be some rally this week. The accumulation territories at 1.5000 and 1.4950 are being watched, and the distribution territories at 1.5100 and 1.5200 may be potential targets in case of a rally in this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecasted, this pair broke upwards, following the recent consolidating movement in the market. The price moved upwards from the demand level at 119.50, slashing through the supply level at 121.00, but failing to close above it. As long as Greenback holds onto its bullishness, the bias on this pair is bullish. The current price action and candlestick formations on 4-hour chart all point to further northward journey.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, which moved strongly towards the price zone around 131.00. This movement is contrary to the expectation, and therefore, long trades are currently not considered here. We should no longer expect any meaningful rally on this cross unless EUR gains a considerable amount of stamina. Then, we would want some confirmation of a trend reversal before long positions are sought.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I have found that when my primary goal is to trade well, I regularly experience moments of flow. I have also found that when my primary goal is to simply trade well, my results are better as a consequence.” – Dr. Ken Long

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 16 - 20, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market currently is one of the weakest among the majors, making lower highs and lower lows. The market proffers short opportunities with any short-term rallies that occur in it. The great support line at 1.0500 is being battered heavily by furious bears, and it may be breached to the downside, while price goes towards the support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0300. There is no big deal in EUR reaching parity with USD. If CAD, CHF and AUD could reach parity with USD, then why not EUR? Unless the resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 are overcome, the outlook this week is bearish.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on this pair is bullish – as long as EURUSD is weak. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, since price stays above the psychological support level at 1.0000. There is another important support level at 0.9900, and as long as price stays above these two important support levels, short trades would be irrational. The targets for buyers this week are located at 1.0150 and 1.0200.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week, Cable dipped by over 300 pips, testing the accumulation territories at 1.4750 and 1.4700. Further bearish run is possible, which may make the market reach another accumulation territory at 1.4600. However, there could be a probable rally before the end of this week, which could be significant enough to jeopardize the existing bearish bias, especially in the near-term.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
In spite of insignificant movement on this currency instrument, especially in recent times, the trend is still bullish. It is expected that there could an increase momentum in the market before the end of this week or early next week, which would favor bulls. Most JPY pairs could also experience the same upward movement within the stipulated period. USDJPY could thus reach the supply levels at 122.00 and 123.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the great weakness in the EUR, this cross also dropped further downwards last week. On Friday, March 13, 2015, price closed at 127.43, in the context of a downtrend. While the demand zones at 127.00 and 126.00 could be tried, there is also a rational possibility that the cross would rally before the end of this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I integrate trading as a part of my life. Trading doesn’t stress me out, so I don’t medicate the stress in any way. Trading actually promotes my health. It satisfies certain feelings in me that other activities do not.” – Mike Melissinos

 

[analyst75]

The Travail of the Signals Provider

“No matter how great a setup looks, there’s always a chance you can still be wrong… Realize that knowing when not to trade is as important as knowing when to trade. I often joke that we are more wait-ers than trade-ers.”

A signals provider is a trading professional who gives buy and sell recommendations to interested clients. This can be thru newsletters, email alerts, SMS, auto trading, social trading, etc. In most cases, stop loss levels, take profit levels, exit dates, money management recommendations, and so on are included with the signals. While there are trading signals systems that lose money over time, there are also trading signals that win money over time. Unless doctored, historical performances of good signals systems have average winners that are bigger than average losers.

For a strategy to work, it must be followed as recommended. Unfortunately, many clients would either add irrelevant rules or do something else that is against the strategy, and they’ll still put blame on the signals provider. We tend to forget that signals providers aren’t gods.

One associate professor, who’s also a trading advisor, tells of his experience with clients. When the markets conditions are favorable, the clients will be happy and send him their good will. When the markets conditions aren’t favorable, they become sad and send him words of anxiety and hopelessness, plus questions. When the markets crash further, the clients call, email, and send in words of frustration, plus oaths.

Inexperienced traders that trade based on my recommendations hold me in high esteem whenever the strategy is making money. They may even become overconfident. They may add additional positions that are contrary to my recommendations and risk far too large portions of their portfolios, contrary to my suggestions. However, when the signals strategy is experiencing a losing streak – as it’s normal for all strategies under heaven – many people would think I’m stupid. They’d even wonder if I’m a professional as I claim. They unsubscribe from my services before the signals start making money again.

When new signals aren’t sent because the existing market situation precludes the entry criteria from being met, some clients initiate trades of their own. When they gains from such trades, they feel proud of themselves. When they lose money, they blame the signals provider who failed to send signals when they needed them. Such is the travail of the signals provider.

Good traders who follow positive expectancy religiously are sometimes referred to as wise fools. Good traders aren’t those who make money from the markets only; they’re those who can keep their hard-earned profits and survive terrible losing streaks.

This reminds me of when I was a private tutor (many years ago). Parents hired private tutors to teach their kids at home, with the hope that the teachers are magicians who can perform academic miracles on their kids. You see, there are many factors that contribute to academic failures of children. When a kid fails an exam in spite of the effort of a private tutor, the tutor would be the one to blame for the failure, even if she/he doesn’t deserve that. They don’t usually blame schools, school teachers, the kids, technology, environment, etc.

Something that sounds perfect in theory may fail in practice. A good strategy that sounds great when analyzed will experience occasional drawdowns. Our job is to lose as small as possible during losing streaks and move forwards during winning streaks.

Conclusion: For many years, I’ve been happily engaged in the markets. I’ve learned that the principles that lead to trading success are logical and simple, yet at the same time a priceless treasure. That’s why I appreciate sharing my convictions and wonderful secrets with others. Today I know that success in the market is attainable rather than elusive.

The quote at the beginning of this article is from Dave Landry. The quote below is also from him:

“With my methodology there will be extended periods where there is nothing to do. Trying to make something happen during these conditions because you need the money will create losses. Also, trends take time to develop.”

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 23 - 27, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Without events, there cannot be history. The even that happened last week shows that EUR may not reach parity with USD soon. In fact, it is no longer rational to seek short trades on this pair, for the outlook on it has already turned bullish. As it was mentioned in the past analyses, the great support line at 1.0500 did a good job in preventing further southward plunge in the market, and since then price has skyrocketed by more than 300 pips. The bullish spike on Wednesday, March 18, 2015, was the strongest – in which price shot upward by over 450 pips in a single day, and later got corrected downwards. The support lines at 1.0700 and 1.0600 should do a good job in frustrating the efforts of the bears while price could go further upwards gradually this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
As it was expected, only a strong rally in EURUSD was able to bring about the reversal in USDCHF, and that is exactly what happened? The former rallied, the latter dipped. The former got corrected lower, the latter bounced upward; and vice versa. There is now a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USDCHF, and price may reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600 this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
What happened here last week has posed a formidable challenge to the recent bearish bias. Cable was nearly replicating what EURUSD was doing; making price actions on the two markets look nearly similar. After all, both pairs are positively correlated. The expected movement on Cable this week should be favorable to the bulls, for the market would continue its upwards journey towards the distribution territories at 1.5050 and 1.5150. By then, the bias would have turned completely bullish.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The incipient selling pressure on this currency trading instrument has made it become weak. Price can test the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00, but it is unlikely that it would breach those demand levels to the downside because there is a high probability that this instrument may rally this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the bias on this cross is bearish, the bias has almost been rendered invalid. Last week, the general movement on this cross was bullish, enabling price to close above the demand zone at 129.50. The market can move upwards by more than 150 pips this week: an action that would be the final blow for the currently precarious bearish bias.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The search for low-risk trading ideas has always been the most important task for traders and investors. That hasn’t changed much. The main goal is to find situations where rewards exceed risks considerably.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

 

[analyst75]

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 30 – April 3, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD, which has been making some bullish attempt since a few weeks ago, is now above the support line at 1.0850. On the downside, there are support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0700. On the upside, there are resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.2000. It is expected that price will oscillate between the resistance line at 1.2000 and the support line at 1.0700 in the week. Only a significant movement will make price go above that resistance line or below that support line.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair remains bearish in spite of some faint attempts by the bulls, to halt the situation. There are support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400. There are also resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800; plus price is supposed to move to and fro between the resistance level at 0.9800 and the support level at 0.9400. There must be a very strong momentum in the market before price can breach that resistance level to the upside or that support level to the downside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The movement on Cable for the last week was flat, and should the market remain flat for this week, the overall bias would turn neutral. The recent bias is bearish and the current price action shows a serious tug of war between the bull and the bear. For the price to move seriously (to go out of balance), either the bull or the bear must dominate, for price will remain flat as long as the bull and the bear appear to have equal strength. Whether this week or next week, there would be a rise in momentum, which may force the price below the accumulation territory at 1.4750 or above the distribution territory at 1.5050. However, it is more likely that Cable would rally, meaning that the expected increase in the momentum will likely favor buyers.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/JPY is currently weak. Price tested the demand level at 118.50 last week and it could even test another demand level at 118.00. However, there is a possibility that there would be a bullish breakout this week or next week, especially on an occasion of a serious weakness in Yen.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on this cross is bullish and it may continue to be bullish on the condition that it does not go below the demand zone at 128.50. Any bullish continuation this week may enable this cross to reach the supply zones at 131.00 and 131.50. Generally, some weakness is expected in JPY (this week or next week), and this may allow some JPY pairs to rally.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets always offer opportunities, but to capture those opportunities, you MUST know what you are doing. If you want to trade these markets, you need to approach them as a trader, not a long-term investor.” – Dr. Ken Long