Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs
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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 16 - 20, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In a slow and tardy manner, this pair has been trending downwards. The movement is tardy because consolidation phases can be perceived in the market; yet it can also be clearly seen that the bears dominate the market. There is a shallow rally at the moment, which ought to be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3600 and 1.3650 respectively. This is necessary for the bearish trend to continue, because any movement above the resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
It is expected that this currency trading instrument close above the strong psychological resistance level at 0.9000. This is a must – for the bullish outlook to continue to be valid. The market breached the resistance level several times this week and last week, but it is was unable to stay above it. This inability to close above the resistance line or go southward has led to a recent sideways movement. This is what would happen eventually: should the price fail to close above the resistance level at 0.9000 and go further towards the resistance level at 0.9050, another strong bearish bias would start. The USD may not reach parity with the CHF as soon as we think.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
There has been a significant upwards surge on this market. The price was bullish last week, and it experienced serious volatility earlier this week. From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the Cable rallied by more than 240 pips. The distribution territory at 1.7000 is thus an easy target. This is a great psychological zone, and should the price succeeded in closing above it, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.7100. However the possibilities of pullbacks along the way cannot be ruled out.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/JPY has become bearish, going downwards from the supply level 102.50. The current rally in the price may be another opportunity to sell short; provided the rally does not take the price above the supply level at 102.50. Should the price go further southward, it might reach the demand levels at 101.50 and 101.00.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is also a bear market. The price has bounced up from the demand zone at 138.00, but this is supposed to be limited. The price may soon fall downwards again, testing that support zone, even breaking it to the downside.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Sometimes we needed a little bit of luck, but if we followed the strategy, we were more likely to come out on top.” – Lee Sandford
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In a slow and tardy manner, this pair has been trending downwards. The movement is tardy because consolidation phases can be perceived in the market; yet it can also be clearly seen that the bears dominate the market. There is a shallow rally at the moment, which ought to be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3600 and 1.3650 respectively. This is necessary for the bearish trend to continue, because any movement above the resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
It is expected that this currency trading instrument close above the strong psychological resistance level at 0.9000. This is a must – for the bullish outlook to continue to be valid. The market breached the resistance level several times this week and last week, but it is was unable to stay above it. This inability to close above the resistance line or go southward has led to a recent sideways movement. This is what would happen eventually: should the price fail to close above the resistance level at 0.9000 and go further towards the resistance level at 0.9050, another strong bearish bias would start. The USD may not reach parity with the CHF as soon as we think.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
There has been a significant upwards surge on this market. The price was bullish last week, and it experienced serious volatility earlier this week. From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the Cable rallied by more than 240 pips. The distribution territory at 1.7000 is thus an easy target. This is a great psychological zone, and should the price succeeded in closing above it, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.7100. However the possibilities of pullbacks along the way cannot be ruled out.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/JPY has become bearish, going downwards from the supply level 102.50. The current rally in the price may be another opportunity to sell short; provided the rally does not take the price above the supply level at 102.50. Should the price go further southward, it might reach the demand levels at 101.50 and 101.00.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is also a bear market. The price has bounced up from the demand zone at 138.00, but this is supposed to be limited. The price may soon fall downwards again, testing that support zone, even breaking it to the downside.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Sometimes we needed a little bit of luck, but if we followed the strategy, we were more likely to come out on top.” – Lee Sandford
@Foreigner:
Thanks for your past flaming comments.
I’d like to reply you by a quote from one of my most respected mentors (who’ve really saved my career with their trading beliefs and principles). His name is Dr. van. K. Tharp. The quote is taken as my stance towards your comments:
“I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.
However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.” - (Source acknowledgement: Vantharp.com)
Thanks for your past flaming comments.
I’d like to reply you by a quote from one of my most respected mentors (who’ve really saved my career with their trading beliefs and principles). His name is Dr. van. K. Tharp. The quote is taken as my stance towards your comments:
“I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.
However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.” - (Source acknowledgement: Vantharp.com)
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 23 - 27, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Within the last few weeks, the EUR/USD broke below the support line at 1.3550, but it was unable to stay below it. Eventually, the price rose seriously, closing above the support line at 1.3600. This price action has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, and the price is expected to go more northward. The aforementioned support line would serve as a challenge to any possible bearish plunge along the way.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
After a long desperate siege at the resistance level of 0.9000 (which is a great psychological level) and desperate battle between the bulls and the bears, the bulls gave way and the price plunged smoothly. The plunge has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This means that it is no longer logical to place long trades in this market. It is possible that the price would continue to go southward, eventually reaching the support level at 0.8850. One important thing must be noted: the possibility of the price going further southward is stronger than the possibility of the price going northwards. Therefore, any rallies – no matter how strong - would meet a recalcitrant challenge at the resistance level of 0.9000. At that level, the bullish soldiers fought cut-throat battle but suffered heavy losses, so it would continue to act as an impediment to the bulls’ wish.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Unlike the USD/CHF which failed to break the resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside after a long siege, the Cable was successful in breaking the accumulation territory at 1.7000 to the upside. It closed above that territory and moved further upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory is an easy target that would be breached to the upside, paving way for more northward movement.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is bullish, but the bulls’ strength is constantly challenged. In fact, the market needs to stay above the demand level at 101.50 for the bullish bias to continue to be valid. Otherwise, the already weak bullish bias would be rendered totally invalid. In order for the bias to be relevant, the market needs to go further upwards, breaking the supply level at 102.50 to the upside, and closing above it.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since last Monday, this cross has been rejecting bearish pulls on it. The successful rejection has resulted in a bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 138.50, the bullish signal would make sense.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Performance is more about me than my system.” – Adam Jowett
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Within the last few weeks, the EUR/USD broke below the support line at 1.3550, but it was unable to stay below it. Eventually, the price rose seriously, closing above the support line at 1.3600. This price action has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, and the price is expected to go more northward. The aforementioned support line would serve as a challenge to any possible bearish plunge along the way.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
After a long desperate siege at the resistance level of 0.9000 (which is a great psychological level) and desperate battle between the bulls and the bears, the bulls gave way and the price plunged smoothly. The plunge has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This means that it is no longer logical to place long trades in this market. It is possible that the price would continue to go southward, eventually reaching the support level at 0.8850. One important thing must be noted: the possibility of the price going further southward is stronger than the possibility of the price going northwards. Therefore, any rallies – no matter how strong - would meet a recalcitrant challenge at the resistance level of 0.9000. At that level, the bullish soldiers fought cut-throat battle but suffered heavy losses, so it would continue to act as an impediment to the bulls’ wish.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Unlike the USD/CHF which failed to break the resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside after a long siege, the Cable was successful in breaking the accumulation territory at 1.7000 to the upside. It closed above that territory and moved further upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory is an easy target that would be breached to the upside, paving way for more northward movement.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is bullish, but the bulls’ strength is constantly challenged. In fact, the market needs to stay above the demand level at 101.50 for the bullish bias to continue to be valid. Otherwise, the already weak bullish bias would be rendered totally invalid. In order for the bias to be relevant, the market needs to go further upwards, breaking the supply level at 102.50 to the upside, and closing above it.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since last Monday, this cross has been rejecting bearish pulls on it. The successful rejection has resulted in a bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 138.50, the bullish signal would make sense.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Performance is more about me than my system.” – Adam Jowett
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 30 – July 4, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is now in an uptrend, though the movement is tardy and shaky. The price has been very volatile as the bulls and the bears fight for control. As a result of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is more likely that the pair would go further upwards. The resistance line at 1.3650 was tested and it could be tested again. It could even be breached to the upside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/CHF has also been slow and tardy, but bearish in outlook. So far, the market has been able to maintain its bearish bias, going lower in a slow and steady manner. This downward move is also riddled with high volatility. Since the sellers have supremacy here, there is a possibility that the price may reach the support level at 0.8900.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Here, the barrier to further northward movement remains the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory was tested last week vigorously. It was tested this week as well; and up till now the price is yet to close above it. After suffering a transient setback, the price is now trying to go upwards to challenge the distribution territory again, which must be broken eventually, for the bullish outlook to hold onto its validity.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
On the USD/JPY, it is advised that short-term orders should be considered rather than long-term ones. This is because the recent signals have been short-lived. Right now, there is a bearish indication in the market: it makes sense to seek short trades.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent ‘buy’ signal on this cross was weak and unsustainable. The bias has turned bearish because of the perceived strength in the Yen. The EUR’s position is too delicate, and this is quickly reflected in its weakness against the Yen. The price tested the demand zone at 138.00; and with renewed bearish effort, it could go lower to test the demand zone at 137.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“It is the sum of all trades that is relevant for the trading result, not the single trade.” – Jens Klatt
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is now in an uptrend, though the movement is tardy and shaky. The price has been very volatile as the bulls and the bears fight for control. As a result of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is more likely that the pair would go further upwards. The resistance line at 1.3650 was tested and it could be tested again. It could even be breached to the upside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/CHF has also been slow and tardy, but bearish in outlook. So far, the market has been able to maintain its bearish bias, going lower in a slow and steady manner. This downward move is also riddled with high volatility. Since the sellers have supremacy here, there is a possibility that the price may reach the support level at 0.8900.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Here, the barrier to further northward movement remains the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory was tested last week vigorously. It was tested this week as well; and up till now the price is yet to close above it. After suffering a transient setback, the price is now trying to go upwards to challenge the distribution territory again, which must be broken eventually, for the bullish outlook to hold onto its validity.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
On the USD/JPY, it is advised that short-term orders should be considered rather than long-term ones. This is because the recent signals have been short-lived. Right now, there is a bearish indication in the market: it makes sense to seek short trades.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent ‘buy’ signal on this cross was weak and unsustainable. The bias has turned bearish because of the perceived strength in the Yen. The EUR’s position is too delicate, and this is quickly reflected in its weakness against the Yen. The price tested the demand zone at 138.00; and with renewed bearish effort, it could go lower to test the demand zone at 137.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“It is the sum of all trades that is relevant for the trading result, not the single trade.” – Jens Klatt
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 7 - 11, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent bias on this pair was bullish, but everything has now gone bearish. It is no longer sensible to seek long trades on this pair because it has failed to break the resistance line at 1.3700 to the upside. In addition, the price has dived by almost 100 pips, trading below the resistance line at 1.3650. The support line at 1.3600 is currently being tested and there is a high probability that it could easily be breached to the downside. Should this become possible, the price may go further downwards to the support line at 1.3550.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
It should be noted that, although the dominant bias on this currency trading instrument is bearish, the price has been making serious bullish attempts. The bullish attempts are so strong that they threaten the bearish bias. For the bearish bias not to become completely invalid, the rally would need to be rejected at the resistance level of 0.8950. Any movement above that resistance level would render the bearish bias completely invalid, since things would have turned seriously bullish by then. However, it is not likely that the price would be able to cross the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside in the long run.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been able to remain bullish, breaking one distribution territory after the other. The price territory at 1.7150 was breached to the upside after much struggle and hesitation which lasted for a few days. The price is now poised to move further upwards, and it may reach another distribution territory at 1.7200 next week.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The USD/JPY is bullish, although there is now some southward correction in the market. The southward correction cannot render the bullish outlook useless, as long as it does not take the price below the demand level at 101.50. Any movement below the aforementioned demand level would result in clean bearish outlook.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition on this cross is very delicate, and one may do well to stay out of the market until there is a convincing directional movement. The price is bullish but the sudden weakness in the EUR makes it illogical to seek long trades at the present. The possibility of the price testing the demand zone at 138.50 cannot be ruled out.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“You want to be paid to trade. Winnings are your payment for taking risk.” – Jos Ross
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent bias on this pair was bullish, but everything has now gone bearish. It is no longer sensible to seek long trades on this pair because it has failed to break the resistance line at 1.3700 to the upside. In addition, the price has dived by almost 100 pips, trading below the resistance line at 1.3650. The support line at 1.3600 is currently being tested and there is a high probability that it could easily be breached to the downside. Should this become possible, the price may go further downwards to the support line at 1.3550.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
It should be noted that, although the dominant bias on this currency trading instrument is bearish, the price has been making serious bullish attempts. The bullish attempts are so strong that they threaten the bearish bias. For the bearish bias not to become completely invalid, the rally would need to be rejected at the resistance level of 0.8950. Any movement above that resistance level would render the bearish bias completely invalid, since things would have turned seriously bullish by then. However, it is not likely that the price would be able to cross the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside in the long run.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been able to remain bullish, breaking one distribution territory after the other. The price territory at 1.7150 was breached to the upside after much struggle and hesitation which lasted for a few days. The price is now poised to move further upwards, and it may reach another distribution territory at 1.7200 next week.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The USD/JPY is bullish, although there is now some southward correction in the market. The southward correction cannot render the bullish outlook useless, as long as it does not take the price below the demand level at 101.50. Any movement below the aforementioned demand level would result in clean bearish outlook.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition on this cross is very delicate, and one may do well to stay out of the market until there is a convincing directional movement. The price is bullish but the sudden weakness in the EUR makes it illogical to seek long trades at the present. The possibility of the price testing the demand zone at 138.50 cannot be ruled out.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“You want to be paid to trade. Winnings are your payment for taking risk.” – Jos Ross
analyst75 said:
It's K. van Tharp actually, and I doubt he would be thrilled to have you name him as your mentor.
Your posts are an interesting read in so far as they document how your mind works. Your phraseology is fascinating, with content such as "After a long desperate siege at the resistance level" and "The condition on this cross is very delicate" and "This downward move is also riddled with high volatility" and one of my favourites "the barrier to further northward movement remains". While this may amuse some and perhaps alarm others I wonder if you actually realise how useless this kind of discussion is when it comes to trading.
I note your defense above where you refer to differences in beliefs. That's fine, after all, a belief is an idea one holds that does not require supportive evidence. However, most traders who develop any measure of success come to understand that a careful and critical review of their underlying beliefs, during which they test them and learn to let go of those that do not serve their needs in trading, is essential. If you actually knew van Tharp he would have told you that.
So let's just see how insightful your form of market review is. It appears to be little more than some form of descriptive rambling but even a coin toss can yield a 50% success rate when just predicting dominant bias so let's see if you can do better than that.
Here is a review of your forecasts for just the EURUSD.
Since individual sources of price data vary I used one available to the public as a point of reference.
The result of 5 in 14 is not all that bad actually. Many people fare much worse.
However, the colourful descriptions and clear statements of bias are one thing but application to trading is quite another. Perhaps you could explain how exactly you think your prose should be used to inform actual trading. Maybe you could share how you actually use it or recommend how readers could use it. After all, if you can't see a way it might prove useful to others, there's not much point in publishing it.
"A shill, also called a plant or a stooge, is a person who publicly helps a person or organization without disclosing that they have a close relationship with the person or organization."
"The origin of the term "shill" is uncertain; it may be an abbreviation of "shillaber." The word originally denoted a carnival worker who pretended to be a member of the audience in an attempt to elicit interest in an attraction. Some sources trace the usage back to 1914."
The irony is this particular Carney probably doesnt even know who he/she is working for.
"The origin of the term "shill" is uncertain; it may be an abbreviation of "shillaber." The word originally denoted a carnival worker who pretended to be a member of the audience in an attempt to elicit interest in an attraction. Some sources trace the usage back to 1914."
The irony is this particular Carney probably doesnt even know who he/she is working for.
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 14 - 18, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the EUR/USD remains a weak pair, the direction on it has not been significantly bearish (neither has the price been able to go upwards significantly). However, this kind if market is great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Before the bias can be termed as bullish, the price would need to break the resistance line at 1.3650 to the upside - therefore rendering the bearish bias invalid – or the price may break the support line at 1.3600, therefore adding to the bearish strength. Until then, swing traders may stay aside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition affecting this pair is similar to that of the EUR/USD. The bias is bullish but it is very weak. In fact, a movement below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish bias invalid, and therefore, for the bias to continue to make sense, the price needs to break the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside. It should, however, be noted that the price would find it very difficult to breach the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable remains logical. The pause in the upward journey has resulted in a clean sideways movement, after which the upward bias could continue. The bulls have so far refused to allow the price to be pushed seriously. When the bullish momentum returns to the market, the distribution territory at 1.7150 would be breached to the upside, but it is important that the price is able to remain above that territory. Should the price breach the accumulation territories at 1.7100 and 1.7050 to the downside respectively, then the bullish outlook would become illogical.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, and the USD/JPY is supposed to continue going further downwards. This would not be without challenges, since the bulls also would be making effort to push the price upwards. The demand level at 101.00 could be tested; and it would require more bearish effort to violate the demand level, closing below it.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is weak: a result of the weakness in the EUR and the strength in the JPY. The downward movement could continue, making the price to reach the demand zone at 137.00. Meanwhile, the supply level at 138.50 ought to be an impediment to possible rallies along the way.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“I am absolutely satisfied with the markets being my line of work, because it is always interesting and there are constantly new challenging scenarios that need to be analyzed.” – Martin Pring
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the EUR/USD remains a weak pair, the direction on it has not been significantly bearish (neither has the price been able to go upwards significantly). However, this kind if market is great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Before the bias can be termed as bullish, the price would need to break the resistance line at 1.3650 to the upside - therefore rendering the bearish bias invalid – or the price may break the support line at 1.3600, therefore adding to the bearish strength. Until then, swing traders may stay aside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition affecting this pair is similar to that of the EUR/USD. The bias is bullish but it is very weak. In fact, a movement below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish bias invalid, and therefore, for the bias to continue to make sense, the price needs to break the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside. It should, however, be noted that the price would find it very difficult to breach the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable remains logical. The pause in the upward journey has resulted in a clean sideways movement, after which the upward bias could continue. The bulls have so far refused to allow the price to be pushed seriously. When the bullish momentum returns to the market, the distribution territory at 1.7150 would be breached to the upside, but it is important that the price is able to remain above that territory. Should the price breach the accumulation territories at 1.7100 and 1.7050 to the downside respectively, then the bullish outlook would become illogical.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, and the USD/JPY is supposed to continue going further downwards. This would not be without challenges, since the bulls also would be making effort to push the price upwards. The demand level at 101.00 could be tested; and it would require more bearish effort to violate the demand level, closing below it.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is weak: a result of the weakness in the EUR and the strength in the JPY. The downward movement could continue, making the price to reach the demand zone at 137.00. Meanwhile, the supply level at 138.50 ought to be an impediment to possible rallies along the way.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“I am absolutely satisfied with the markets being my line of work, because it is always interesting and there are constantly new challenging scenarios that need to be analyzed.” – Martin Pring
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 21 - 25, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The dominant bias for this week has been the same for last week – it is unchanged. The bearish trend in the market is now particularly strong, and it may continue as such. The price may reach the support lines of 1.3500 and 1.3450 within the next several trading days. Meanwhile, there are possible rallies in the context of the downtrend, which may take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.3550 and 1.3600, respectively. Those resistance lines ought to act as a serious impediment to the rallies that may render the bearish bias invalid.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
In contrast to what the EUR/USD is doing, this pair is in an uptrend. It is currently trading above the support level at 0.8950, and it should go further upwards, following the current shallow retracement in the market. However, it is very unlikely that the great resistance level at 0.9000 would be breached to the upside, and thus, the bulls may want to take their profits at that level. Should the price breach the resistance level at 0.9000 and succeed in closing above it, that would signify the continuation of the constant stamina in the market, and a continuation of the bullish bias.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument has been able to maintain its recent bullish outlook in spite of its present inability to go further upwards in a significant mode. The inability to go further upwards in a significant mode has also resulted in a great risk of the price sliding downwards. In fact, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean the bullish outlook has been rendered totally useless. For the bullish outlook not to become useless, the price needs to stay above that accumulation territory, and better go upwards again.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is still able to maintain its bearish bias; as a result of the strength in the Yen. The bearish outlook is expected to continue, though things may not be a significant as the situation on other JPY pairs. The demand level at 101.00 should, at least, be tested.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness of this cross, brought about by the weakness in the Euro versus the strength in the Yen, has resulted in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The price is expected to continue going downwards, though the probabilities of transitory rallies and consolidations cannot be ruled out along the way.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Some of the most famous hedge fund managers are renowned for being skilled risk takers from a young age.” – Bruce Bower
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The dominant bias for this week has been the same for last week – it is unchanged. The bearish trend in the market is now particularly strong, and it may continue as such. The price may reach the support lines of 1.3500 and 1.3450 within the next several trading days. Meanwhile, there are possible rallies in the context of the downtrend, which may take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.3550 and 1.3600, respectively. Those resistance lines ought to act as a serious impediment to the rallies that may render the bearish bias invalid.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
In contrast to what the EUR/USD is doing, this pair is in an uptrend. It is currently trading above the support level at 0.8950, and it should go further upwards, following the current shallow retracement in the market. However, it is very unlikely that the great resistance level at 0.9000 would be breached to the upside, and thus, the bulls may want to take their profits at that level. Should the price breach the resistance level at 0.9000 and succeed in closing above it, that would signify the continuation of the constant stamina in the market, and a continuation of the bullish bias.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument has been able to maintain its recent bullish outlook in spite of its present inability to go further upwards in a significant mode. The inability to go further upwards in a significant mode has also resulted in a great risk of the price sliding downwards. In fact, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean the bullish outlook has been rendered totally useless. For the bullish outlook not to become useless, the price needs to stay above that accumulation territory, and better go upwards again.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is still able to maintain its bearish bias; as a result of the strength in the Yen. The bearish outlook is expected to continue, though things may not be a significant as the situation on other JPY pairs. The demand level at 101.00 should, at least, be tested.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness of this cross, brought about by the weakness in the Euro versus the strength in the Yen, has resulted in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The price is expected to continue going downwards, though the probabilities of transitory rallies and consolidations cannot be ruled out along the way.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Some of the most famous hedge fund managers are renowned for being skilled risk takers from a young age.” – Bruce Bower
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 28 – August 1, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has dropped by over 140 pips since last week, testing the support line at 1.3450. The price has tried to bounce upwards from that support line, but the upward bounce is weak. It is still expected that the price would test the support line again, and possibly break it to the downside, going further downwards. The resistance lines at 1.3500 and 1.3550 could do a good job resisting any significant rallies that may jeopardize the existing bias.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The USD/CHF recently achieved a feat – it broke the great support level at 0.9000 to the upside. Apart from that, it has been able to stay above that support level, making more attempts to go further northwards. The next target, which is an obstacle to be breached, is the resistance levels at 0.9050 and 0.9100. While it is possible that the market could challenge those levels, it may be very difficult for it to breach the level 0.9100 to the upside. Therefore the bulls may want to take their profits there.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
It is not a surprise that the Cable has become bearish, following a good bullish run that has just ended. Since the price was unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.7150 (not to mention closing above it), it gave way to gravity. From that distribution territory, the price has gone downwards by roughly 180 pips. The price is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.7000; it could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Unlike most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY did not go seriously downwards because of the strength in the Greenback. The bull is now flexing his muscle, pushing the price upwards; and this has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price may easily test the supply level at 102.00: it may even break it to the upside, going further north. On the other hand, there is a risk of a sudden pullback, which may take the price towards the demand level at 101.50.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a strongly trending market – with a marked weakness. The price dived and tested the demand zone at 136.50, after which it bounced upwards. The upwards bounce may be contained at the supply zones of 137.50 and 138.00. From these zones, the price may go downwards again towards the demand zone at 136.50.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“…The fundamental factors suggest what ought to happen in the market, while the technical factors suggest what actually is happening in the market” – Richard Schabacker
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has dropped by over 140 pips since last week, testing the support line at 1.3450. The price has tried to bounce upwards from that support line, but the upward bounce is weak. It is still expected that the price would test the support line again, and possibly break it to the downside, going further downwards. The resistance lines at 1.3500 and 1.3550 could do a good job resisting any significant rallies that may jeopardize the existing bias.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The USD/CHF recently achieved a feat – it broke the great support level at 0.9000 to the upside. Apart from that, it has been able to stay above that support level, making more attempts to go further northwards. The next target, which is an obstacle to be breached, is the resistance levels at 0.9050 and 0.9100. While it is possible that the market could challenge those levels, it may be very difficult for it to breach the level 0.9100 to the upside. Therefore the bulls may want to take their profits there.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
It is not a surprise that the Cable has become bearish, following a good bullish run that has just ended. Since the price was unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.7150 (not to mention closing above it), it gave way to gravity. From that distribution territory, the price has gone downwards by roughly 180 pips. The price is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.7000; it could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Unlike most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY did not go seriously downwards because of the strength in the Greenback. The bull is now flexing his muscle, pushing the price upwards; and this has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price may easily test the supply level at 102.00: it may even break it to the upside, going further north. On the other hand, there is a risk of a sudden pullback, which may take the price towards the demand level at 101.50.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a strongly trending market – with a marked weakness. The price dived and tested the demand zone at 136.50, after which it bounced upwards. The upwards bounce may be contained at the supply zones of 137.50 and 138.00. From these zones, the price may go downwards again towards the demand zone at 136.50.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“…The fundamental factors suggest what ought to happen in the market, while the technical factors suggest what actually is happening in the market” – Richard Schabacker
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 - 8, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to continue its southward journey. The price is now going below the resistance line at 1.3400. The resistance line is a war zone between the bulls and the bears, for the price would be making some attempts to breach it to the upside. Should the initial resistance line get broken to the upside, another resistance line at 1.3450 would serve as another hurdle for the bulls. A break above the resistance line at 1.3450 would pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend may continue, thus pushing the price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 0.3300.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecasted last week, the USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls would like to take their profits, because the price ought to retrace southwards from there. For the bullish journey to continue, the price needs to break that resistance level to the upside, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. Should the price fail to do this, a near-term or medium-term bearish run would begin.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable dived by about 120 pips this week. The bearish outlook is currently strong, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has a great probability of continuing further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively. On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 should act as impediment to any rallies along the way.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Greenback is strong; no wonder the USD/JPY rallied, especially in the face of the weakness in the Yen. The market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken to the upside before the northward movement can continue. Otherwise, there could be some deep pullbacks that might take the price towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The EUR itself is not that strong, but as a result of an exponential weakness in the JPY, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to reject the recent bearish bias on it, paving way for a new bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, the bullish signal would make sense. The price might even go upwards towards the supply zone at 138.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“The markets are, as it were, behavioral economics in action. And that is what you benefit from as a trend follower.” – Michael Covel
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to continue its southward journey. The price is now going below the resistance line at 1.3400. The resistance line is a war zone between the bulls and the bears, for the price would be making some attempts to breach it to the upside. Should the initial resistance line get broken to the upside, another resistance line at 1.3450 would serve as another hurdle for the bulls. A break above the resistance line at 1.3450 would pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend may continue, thus pushing the price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 0.3300.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecasted last week, the USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls would like to take their profits, because the price ought to retrace southwards from there. For the bullish journey to continue, the price needs to break that resistance level to the upside, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. Should the price fail to do this, a near-term or medium-term bearish run would begin.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable dived by about 120 pips this week. The bearish outlook is currently strong, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has a great probability of continuing further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively. On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 should act as impediment to any rallies along the way.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Greenback is strong; no wonder the USD/JPY rallied, especially in the face of the weakness in the Yen. The market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken to the upside before the northward movement can continue. Otherwise, there could be some deep pullbacks that might take the price towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The EUR itself is not that strong, but as a result of an exponential weakness in the JPY, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to reject the recent bearish bias on it, paving way for a new bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, the bullish signal would make sense. The price might even go upwards towards the supply zone at 138.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“The markets are, as it were, behavioral economics in action. And that is what you benefit from as a trend follower.” – Michael Covel
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 11 - 15, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to continue its slow and steady journey downwards so far. There are occasional shallow rallies in the market – which often lead to renewed ‘sell’ signals. The Euro is very weak right now and the market has a high probability of remaining bearish next week (even in this month of August 2014). Yes, the probability that the market would remain bearish is far higher than the probability that it would turn seriously bullish. The market could become seriously bullish within the next several trading days, but the possibility of this happening is far less than the possibility of the market remaining bearish. A trend is not over until it is actually over.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
What could happen next to the USD/CHF? Since the pair is in a negative correlation to the EUR/USD, it would go upwards as the latter goes downwards. The possibility of the continuation of the uptrend is very high, but there is an impediment to be overcome: the great resistance level at 0.9100. Just like the support level at 0.9000 - which gave the bulls extremely tough time before it was finally breached - the resistance level at 0.9100 is another barrier. However, the barrier must be broken to the upside for the bullish bias to continue, even if it is going to be a pyrrhic victory. The support level at 0.9000 itself is a great barrier to the bears’ interest, for the bear that tries it now could well be hurtling itself against a rock.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable is positively correlated with the EUR/USD, and thus should also continue trading downwards, unless there is an unexpected event which catapults the price skywards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.6800 and 1.6750 sooner or later.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD may be strong somewhere else, but not with the JPY. In fact, most JPY pairs are bearish and the USD/JPY is no different. There is a ‘sell’ signal in the market, for the price could go on towards the demand level at 101.50. The supply level at 103.00 should check any serious bullish breakouts (for the bearish outlook could be rendered useless when it happens that the supply level is challenged).
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
As a result of the weakness in the Euro and the stamina in the Yen, this cross has become very weak. Long trades are no longer sensible here, for the price could reach the demand levels at 136.00 and 135.50 next week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Trading is a joy to me and I do not get half as stressed as I used to do.” - Stu Whisson
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to continue its slow and steady journey downwards so far. There are occasional shallow rallies in the market – which often lead to renewed ‘sell’ signals. The Euro is very weak right now and the market has a high probability of remaining bearish next week (even in this month of August 2014). Yes, the probability that the market would remain bearish is far higher than the probability that it would turn seriously bullish. The market could become seriously bullish within the next several trading days, but the possibility of this happening is far less than the possibility of the market remaining bearish. A trend is not over until it is actually over.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
What could happen next to the USD/CHF? Since the pair is in a negative correlation to the EUR/USD, it would go upwards as the latter goes downwards. The possibility of the continuation of the uptrend is very high, but there is an impediment to be overcome: the great resistance level at 0.9100. Just like the support level at 0.9000 - which gave the bulls extremely tough time before it was finally breached - the resistance level at 0.9100 is another barrier. However, the barrier must be broken to the upside for the bullish bias to continue, even if it is going to be a pyrrhic victory. The support level at 0.9000 itself is a great barrier to the bears’ interest, for the bear that tries it now could well be hurtling itself against a rock.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable is positively correlated with the EUR/USD, and thus should also continue trading downwards, unless there is an unexpected event which catapults the price skywards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.6800 and 1.6750 sooner or later.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD may be strong somewhere else, but not with the JPY. In fact, most JPY pairs are bearish and the USD/JPY is no different. There is a ‘sell’ signal in the market, for the price could go on towards the demand level at 101.50. The supply level at 103.00 should check any serious bullish breakouts (for the bearish outlook could be rendered useless when it happens that the supply level is challenged).
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
As a result of the weakness in the Euro and the stamina in the Yen, this cross has become very weak. Long trades are no longer sensible here, for the price could reach the demand levels at 136.00 and 135.50 next week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Trading is a joy to me and I do not get half as stressed as I used to do.” - Stu Whisson
AusDoc said:It's K. van Tharp actually, and I doubt he would be thrilled to have you name him as your mentor.
Your posts are an interesting read in so far as they document how your mind works. Your phraseology is fascinating, with content such as "After a long desperate siege at the resistance level" and "The condition on this cross is very delicate" and "This downward move is also riddled with high volatility" and one of my favourites "the barrier to further northward movement remains". While this may amuse some and perhaps alarm others I wonder if you actually realise how useless this kind of discussion is when it comes to trading.
I note your defense above where you refer to differences in beliefs. That's fine, after all, a belief is an idea one holds that does not require supportive evidence. However, most traders who develop any measure of success come to understand that a careful and critical review of their underlying beliefs, during which they test them and learn to let go of those that do not serve their needs in trading, is essential. If you actually knew van Tharp he would have told you that.
So let's just see how insightful your form of market review is. It appears to be little more than some form of descriptive rambling but even a coin toss can yield a 50% success rate when just predicting dominant bias so let's see if you can do better than that.
Here is a review of your forecasts for just the EURUSD.
Since individual sources of price data vary I used one available to the public as a point of reference.
The result of 5 in 14 is not all that bad actually. Many people fare much worse.
However, the colourful descriptions and clear statements of bias are one thing but application to trading is quite another. Perhaps you could explain how exactly you think your prose should be used to inform actual trading. Maybe you could share how you actually use it or recommend how readers could use it. After all, if you can't see a way it might prove useful to others, there's not much point in publishing it.
Hello AusDoc,
Thank you very much for your comment. The analyses are what I do, not what I beg others to do. Besides, the trading analyses are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.
Please remember than Dr. Van Tharp has inspired and helped not only those who enroll for his trading education programs, but also those who are reading his books, articles and newsletters. Van himself can never know how many people his writings have inspired and helped. Whether he knows me or not is not an issue with me (although it may be an issue with you). Remember he's no god, and the strategies I used were developed by me - I just incorporated some principles from his newsletters, e.g. positive expectancy, position sizing, etc.
This has very little to do with accuracy, for Dr. Van himself gets it wrong every now and then in trading - yet he's successful overall. As for the accuracy of my forecasts, I'll answer you with a quote from Van himself and another sensible trading expert:
“Given as few as 30 percent winners, one can earn a fortune in the markets if only one knows how to handle winners and losers.” – Dirk Vandycke
"The need to win money with every trade surely ends in disaster. A sequence of 6 trades with a hit rate of 17% still remains profitable, provided the 5 losses are limited to 5X(-1R) = -15R and the winning trade amounts to 10R." - Dr. Van K. Tharp
I want to conclude with the opposite of Dr. Van's quote. A sequence of 6 trades with a hit rate of 83% remains a losing strategy, providing that the 5 wins are limited to 5X(1R) = 5R and the losing trade amounts to -10R.
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 18 - 22, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has continued to be weak, though the southward movement has been limited so far. In fact, there is a constant struggle between the bull and the bear, which has resulted in a high volatility. The resistance line at 1.3400 has been battered a few times (bearing the brunt of the struggle in the market). While the possibility of a serious rally holds, the pair could still go further downwards, reaching the strong support line at 1.3300. In the meantime, a stronger bearish bias is needed to break the tough support line at 1.3350 to the downside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
On the USDCHF, there is a great support level at 0.9000 and a formidable resistance level at 0.9100. The price presently hovers between the two market levels, while the resistance level at 0.9100 faces more challenge from the buyers. This resistance level was tested several times between August 5 and 7, 2014: it was also tested this week. The price is supposed to go upwards again to test the resistance level. The resistance level ought to be broken to the upside as the bullish trend continues. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9000 would mean the end of the bullish outlook.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument is weak, and the weakness has started since the middle of July 2014. The price has dropped by about 500 pips since then. This week alone, the price has dropped by over 100 pips. There could be another movement to the downside, which could take the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600. Any rallies in the price should be short-term: they should be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6800 and 1.6850.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the JPY is weaker than the USD, it is not a surprise that this pair has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner. In fact, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 103.00 within the next several trading days.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bearish outlook on this cross is now under a threat - any journey above the supply zone at 137.50 would mean the beginning of a new bullish outlook and the end of the current bearish outlook. But as long as the price cannot break the aforementioned supply zone to the upside, the bearish bias would be rational.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Cut short your losses; let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo (1772 - 1823)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has continued to be weak, though the southward movement has been limited so far. In fact, there is a constant struggle between the bull and the bear, which has resulted in a high volatility. The resistance line at 1.3400 has been battered a few times (bearing the brunt of the struggle in the market). While the possibility of a serious rally holds, the pair could still go further downwards, reaching the strong support line at 1.3300. In the meantime, a stronger bearish bias is needed to break the tough support line at 1.3350 to the downside.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
On the USDCHF, there is a great support level at 0.9000 and a formidable resistance level at 0.9100. The price presently hovers between the two market levels, while the resistance level at 0.9100 faces more challenge from the buyers. This resistance level was tested several times between August 5 and 7, 2014: it was also tested this week. The price is supposed to go upwards again to test the resistance level. The resistance level ought to be broken to the upside as the bullish trend continues. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9000 would mean the end of the bullish outlook.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument is weak, and the weakness has started since the middle of July 2014. The price has dropped by about 500 pips since then. This week alone, the price has dropped by over 100 pips. There could be another movement to the downside, which could take the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600. Any rallies in the price should be short-term: they should be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6800 and 1.6850.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the JPY is weaker than the USD, it is not a surprise that this pair has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner. In fact, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 103.00 within the next several trading days.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bearish outlook on this cross is now under a threat - any journey above the supply zone at 137.50 would mean the beginning of a new bullish outlook and the end of the current bearish outlook. But as long as the price cannot break the aforementioned supply zone to the upside, the bearish bias would be rational.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Cut short your losses; let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo (1772 - 1823)
Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 25 - 29, 2014)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to maintain its bearish bias. In this kind of market, any rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short. Therefore, the current rally may be another short-selling opportunity, provided that it does not go above the resistance line at 1.3350. Any movement above that resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias. Should the bearish journey continue, the price may reach the support line at 1.3200.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was expected – at least as a mandatory condition for the continuation of the extant bullish trend on the USD/CHF – the support level at 0.9100 has been breached successfully. After the breach to the upside, the price closed above that level, going further upwards. The price needs to break the resistance level at 0.9150 to the upside, or at least, test it, as the bullish journey continues. Now, the support level at 0.9100 has become a great barrier to any bearish pulls along the way.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the middle of July 2014, the Cable has dropped by over 550 pips. It is clear that the trend-following sellers would have made huge gains while those who go against the trend would have suffered adverse consequences. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable, and so, long trades are not yet sensible. A trend is not over until it is actually over. It is possible that the price would reach the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600 within the next several trading days. However, this would not happen without challenges from the bulls. The bullish challenges may be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is now an established northward outlook on this currency trading instrument. The price was able to break the demand level at 103.00 to the upside, going towards the supply level at 104.00. The supply level at 104.50 could be the target for the next week.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Euro is a weak currency and the Yen is also a weak currency. But in this scenario, the Yen is weaker than the Euro; thus the current bullish breakout, which has now been sustained. In fact, all the JPY pairs are bullish and the EUR/JPY pair is no exception. After the supply zone at 138.00 is tested and broken to the upside, the price may target another supply zone at 139.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“My good trades not only pay for my bad trades, but also put food on the table.” – Chris Ebert
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been able to maintain its bearish bias. In this kind of market, any rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short. Therefore, the current rally may be another short-selling opportunity, provided that it does not go above the resistance line at 1.3350. Any movement above that resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias. Should the bearish journey continue, the price may reach the support line at 1.3200.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was expected – at least as a mandatory condition for the continuation of the extant bullish trend on the USD/CHF – the support level at 0.9100 has been breached successfully. After the breach to the upside, the price closed above that level, going further upwards. The price needs to break the resistance level at 0.9150 to the upside, or at least, test it, as the bullish journey continues. Now, the support level at 0.9100 has become a great barrier to any bearish pulls along the way.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the middle of July 2014, the Cable has dropped by over 550 pips. It is clear that the trend-following sellers would have made huge gains while those who go against the trend would have suffered adverse consequences. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable, and so, long trades are not yet sensible. A trend is not over until it is actually over. It is possible that the price would reach the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600 within the next several trading days. However, this would not happen without challenges from the bulls. The bullish challenges may be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is now an established northward outlook on this currency trading instrument. The price was able to break the demand level at 103.00 to the upside, going towards the supply level at 104.00. The supply level at 104.50 could be the target for the next week.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Euro is a weak currency and the Yen is also a weak currency. But in this scenario, the Yen is weaker than the Euro; thus the current bullish breakout, which has now been sustained. In fact, all the JPY pairs are bullish and the EUR/JPY pair is no exception. After the supply zone at 138.00 is tested and broken to the upside, the price may target another supply zone at 139.00.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“My good trades not only pay for my bad trades, but also put food on the table.” – Chris Ebert