Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Discussion in 'Trading Journals' started by analyst75, Mar 28, 2014.

  1. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This is a bear market: the Euro weakness is clearly noticeable. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is normally expected that the trend would continue going downwards, breaking the support line at 1.3700, and reaching the ultimate target at 1.3650. The expectation does not rule out the possibilities of normal rallies (which should be short-term in nature). For now, only short trades ought to be sought.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Since the ‘buy’ signal has been formed on the USD/CHF, it has been able to maintain that signal. The recent week has been bullish so far; plus the price could reach the resistance level at 0.8900, and then possibly breaking it to the upside, as the price trends further northwards. The support levels at 0.8850 and 0.8800 should check any transitory southward attempts along the way. As long as the price is above the aforementioned support levels, the bullish bias is valid.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    There has been a clean bullish signal on the Cable, owing to a recent surge of stamina in it. The bullish signal is still relatively new, and each pullback would invariably proffer a new chance to go long. The Cable has the possibility of reaching the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750. The signal would be deemed as being valid as long as the price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.6600.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Since this market had been trading largely sideways, only scalping or intraday trading methods are recommended for now. There could be a serious breakout at any moment, and there is a possibility that the price would go further downwards when the breakout does occur (as indicated by the current price action). Meanwhile, scalpers and intraday traders may want to go long at the demand level of 102.00 and go short at the supply level of 102.50, either the former or the latter being a stop loss/target area, depending on whether the order is long or short.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    A look at other JPY pairs reveals that some of them are moving upwards. So the inability of this cross to move upwards suggests that the Euro is very week indeed (the same reason why the EUR/USD is weak while the GBP/USD is strong, although they are normally correlated positively). One may, however, want to enter a short trade here, targeting the demand zones at 104.00 and 139.50.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Some of the greatest and most profitable trading and investing strategies tend to be the most simple you could find. In the world of market speculation, complex very rarely equates to more profitable.” – Sam Evans
     
  2. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 31 – April 4, 2014)

    Hi, welcome to the forum. :)

    Are these your own forecasts or are they from another source?
     
  3. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 31 – April 4, 2014)

    My original ideas. Thanks.
     
  4. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 7 - 11, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The pair has remained bearish recently, going downwards slowly and steadily. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and with the continuation of the selling pressure, the price would easily test the support line at 1.3650. Should that support line be breached to the downside, the next target would be the support line at 1.3600. The resistance lines at 1.3750 and 1.3800 should act as good barriers to any possible rallies.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Since March 20, 2014, there has been a bullish signal on this currency trading instrument, plus the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The confirmed bullish bias is expected to continue, especially with an increase in the stamina in the USD. The market may reach the resistance level at 0.8950. It should be noted that the resistance level has already been tested: the market would test it again and possibly breach it to the upside.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    It has been noted that the GBP has been weak against some major currencies, so it is not a surprise that it has assumed a bearish outlook against the USD. The previous flat movement in the price has resulted in a bearish run. The market is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.6600, which means that the price could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6500. This is our target for the week.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Since March 21, a bullish run has been expected in the market. This market really went up and tested the supply level at 104.00 rigorously, but it failed to slash it to the upside and close above it. Historically, the bullish signal could go on till the April 10, 2014. Right now, there is a bearish correction in the chart. The correction would be seen as a good chance to buy long, provided it does not push the price below the demand level at 103.00.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Just as the USDJPY and other JPY pairs are doing, this cross has generally been bullish. The possibility of corrections cannot be ruled out; for prices do not move in straight lines. However, the current southward correction in the market is strong enough to threaten the established bullish bias. The bullish bias is deemed to be valid as long as the price is able to stay above the demand zone at 141.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:



    “Have you noticed that the hardest trades to take emotionally often turn out to be the best trades?” – Sam Seiden
     
  5. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 7 - 11, 2014)

    Have you any idea how damaging it is for newbie traders to read this drivle?

    Never right never wrong crystal ball mumbo jumbo, what broker do you work for?!!

    Anyone that can trade knows that this type of analysis is misleading nonsense, the question is, should it be on FX Gears?
     
  6. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 7 - 11, 2014)

    I won't defend this guy/gal's work, but besides the 'dominate bias' part I don't see specific trading calls... it's just a high level forecast. That said, I do understand what you mean.

    I don't see any broker or commercial interest.. yet... So let's just openly talk about it with buddy.. and see where this goes. It could be educational (to see his justifications and response to your post that is.)
     
  7. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 14 - 18, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This pair rejected the recent southward pull on it, trended upwards and resulted in a confirmed bullish bias. From the support line at 1.3700, this market has moved upwards and it could test the resistance line at 1.3950. Testing the resistance line at 1.4000 also is not an impossibility, for the trend has a probability of continuation rather than that of a reversal. Along the way there could be some pullbacks before the pair reaches the aforementioned targets.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The USD/CHF has been weak so far – that is the latest development in the market. The strength in the EUR/USD is pushing the USDCHF downwards, for they must go into negative correlation with each other, especially when there are significant moves in the markets. As long as the EUR/USD is strong, the USD/CHF pair will continue its weakness; it could reach the support level at 0.8700.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The significant rally in this currency trading instrument has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The distribution territory at 1.6800 has been challenged before the price was corrected a little. The price could go upwards again to challenge that distribution territory. It may slash through it, close above it and go further upwards towards other distribution territories at 1.6850 and 1.6950.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    It was expected that the last bullish run on this currency trading instrument would hold out till around April 10, though those who went against the Yen would have realized some gains in the latter part of March 2014. The present conspicuous weakness in the USD has resulted in an established bearish outlook. It would, therefore, make sense to seek short trades here. The market level at 101.50 has been besieged, and with an increase in the selling pressure, the market level would be violated as the prices reaches out for the market level at 101.00.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The bias on this cross is bearish, but the trend itself has been limited in force because of the perceived strength in the EUR. The price is very volatile; plus the struggle between the bears and the bulls is intense. However, the current price action shows that there are greater odds on the side of the bears. We may want to put our target at the demand zone of 140.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “The biggest mistake you can make is changing your trading style based on your previous trade or series of trades.” - Peter Brandt
     
  8. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 14 - 18, 2014)

    Why Thank you for sharing your godly knowledge O wise one! Should I go long EURUSD now or wait for a pull back?!

    I bet I could find the exact same text on all the other forums, which broker is paying you? IG Index?!

    Yes thats it just keep trading a losing plan until you run out of money.. :-\

    Admin come on this doesnt teach anyone shit and you know it. Its misdirection and cheapens this forum, next youll be having guest speakers from daily FX!

    But seriously this is EVIL by definition "using something virtuous to achieve the opposite of true virtue" >:D banish it now before it affects any of our members.
     
  9. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 21 - 25, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This market has been moving sideways for days without going in a directional move. However, the bullish bias is still valid because the price has been able to stay above the strong support line at 1.3800. Any movement below that support line could mean the end of the bullish bias. Really, the odds of the price moving upwards are very high when momentum returns to the market. For the bulls, there are targets at the resistance line of 1.3900 and 1.3950.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Although the current situation on this pair can still be termed as being bearish, the situation is highly precarious. The bearish outlook is under a serious threat because the pair has been moving slowly, but steadily upwards recently. The slow and steady upward move could render the bearish outlook totally useless, especially when the price breaks the resistance level at 0.8850 to the upside and closes above it. When the price stays below the resistance level at 0.8850, the bearish outlook is valid, but when it moves above it, the bearish outlook becomes useless.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The Cable is strong indeed! With the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is more likely that the price would continue going further upwards in spite of the bearish retracement that is taking place on in. The retracement is shallow, and it is not expected to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6750. For the northward trend to continue making sense, the Cable needs to go above 1.6800 again and trade further upwards. Any test of the accumulation territory at 1.6700 (though not anticipated) can mean a danger to the bulls.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    It is no longer valid to call this currency trading instrument a bear market, for there is a new ‘buy’ signal on it. It cannot be mentioned for sure whether the signal would be sustained or not, but one thing is true: a short trade does not make sense here at the present. For the past several days, the price has been making attempts to trade upwards (the bears could be slice up!); and this action is what has resulted in a bullish indication. Thus, the price could go on to test the supply levels at 103.00 and 103.50 within the next several days.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Needless to say, this cross has gone bullish and long trades ought to be sought now. The price action has formed a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the price looks determined to challenge the supply zone at 142.00, plus another supply zone at 142.50 (providing that the buying pressure is intense enough).

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “When I started in the 70’s you could make money with a 10-day moving average. Over the years the noise has increased and you need to trade slower and slower trends.” – Perry Kaufman
     
  10. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    The overall bias on the EURUSD is neutral because the market has been in an equilibrium phase for about two weeks. While there is currently no directional bias on this pair, momentum would soon return to the market, which would cause a significant movement in one direction. The most probable directional movement could be towards the north (as confirmed by the price action). Should this happen, one may be looking at the resistance lines at 1.3850 and 1.3900 as targets for long trades.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This market is bullish but the situation remains precarious. It is so precarious that a movement below the support level at 1.8800 is enough to render the bullish outlook invalid. For the outlook to continue to make sense, the price needs to rise above the resistance level at 0.8850; although the logical target for the bull is at the resistance level of 0.8900. One thing is sure: when serious momentum returns to the market, both the EURUSD and the USDCHF cannot go in the same direction, for they are negatively correlated when the trend is strong.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This currency trading instrument is still able to maintain its bullish trend, which has been on for several weeks. Here, noteworthy pullbacks proffer opportunities to go long, provided the pullbacks do not override the dominant outlook. The price may end up reaching the distribution territory at 1.6900; it could even go beyond that if the buying pressure is strong enough. Any pullbacks along the way could be contained at the accumulation territories of 1.6750 and 1.6700.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    The recent events in the market have made it difficult for the price to go determinedly upwards. The price has also not gone determinedly downwards – hence the neutral bias. Nevertheless, momentum would soon return to the market, which would make the price break out upwards and close above the supply level at 103.00, or break below the demand level at 102.00. The possibility of the price breaking below the demand level at 102.00 is greater because of the perceived weakness in this pair.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    It can be said that this cross is also trendless, though the bullish determination can still be perceived. In spite of the struggle between the bulls and the bears, the bears have been unable to drag the price too much downwards. The support zone at 141.30 is a barrier to the bears’ interest; and when price goes out of balance, the bulls may also want to push the price above the supply zone at 142.00, and then the supply level at 142.50.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Well the truth is that never before in history have we been more able or have we had more tools at our disposal to fine-tune and isolate risk than at present.” – Dirk Vandycke
     
  11. Tansen

    Tansen Well-Known Member

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 28 – May 2, 2014)

    The Euro was definitely in a large consolidated range for a while and it`ll be interesting to see what the catalyst will be when it breaks that range.
     
  12. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In order to generate optimal profits, some tact is required in handling the market. This is a bull market but the bias is not very strong. The tug of war between the bull and the bear has resulted in serious upswings and downswings in the price. The bullish outlook would be particularly strong when the price closes above the resistance line at 1.3900. Should this happen, would the price then go towards the resistance line at 1.4000? This is not impossibility, but time would tell.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The recent precarious situation of the last bullish bias has finally led to a bearish indication in this market. The fact is this: the price has proven to be unable to go upwards determinedly and therefore, it must go downwards. However, the bearish trend is not yet very strong, unless the price succeeds in crossing the support level at 0.8750 to the downside and close below it. With that, the price may then target another support level at 0.8700.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the pair has been able to maintain it for weeks. As it was foretold last week, the price has been able to go further upwards – in a slow and tardy manner – towards the distribution territory at 1.6900. The distribution territory is under attack, since it has been tested several times. It would soon give way and the price would continue its northward journey. It may reach the distribution territory at 1.7000. This may look as impossibility, but it might happen.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    This is one market that requires creative approaches to handle. This kind of current price action is suitable for scalpers and intraday traders, but it can test the patience of swing and position traders. There is no dominant bias, for the price has moved largely sideways so far. There would soon be a breakout in the market. For the expected breakout to be noteworthy here, it must either break above the supply level at 102.50 or break below the demand level 102.00. After this occurs, one may be able to take a position.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This is a bull market, but there is a need for it to either break above the supply zone at 142.00 or break below the demand zone at 141.50. Should the former occur, the next target would be at the supply zone of 143.00; and with the latter being fulfilled, the next target would be at the demand zone of 141.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Often best results come with the simplest strategies.” – Oscar Cuevas
     
  13. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The dominant bullish bias still exists in this market, but it is seriously under threat.
    The price attempt to reach the resistance line at 1.4000 failed, and the price got corrected significantly. Should price test the support line at 1.3800 or cross it to the downside, then the bullish bias would be rendered completely useless. Until that happens, it might be assumed that the price could rally i.e. if it could maintain its presence above the support level at 1.3800.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The outlook here is bearish, though the situation looks very precarious. The bulls have been very active recently: the bears have been subjugated and they need to prevent the price from remaining above the resistance level at 0.8800. The inability of the price to fall back below the aforementioned resistance level would result in the bearish outlook being rendered invalid. The invalidation would be especially strong when the price succeeds in challenging the resistance level at 0.8850.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The bullish bias is still in place, but the price has been unable to cross the distribution territory at 1.7000 to the upside. In fact, the price has been consolidating to the downside for the past few days. The accumulation territories 1.6900 and 1.6850 have a job to do – they have to prevent the price from slashing though them and closing below them successively. This is the only thing that can keep the dominant bias intact. As long as the price is unable to breach those accumulation territories to the downside, it could be expected that price would rally from this point.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The recent equilibrium phase on this currency trading instrument has resulted in a slow southward propensity. However, the pair has met a great challenge at the demand level of 101.
    50. The demand level has been tested several times, but there is a need for the price to breach it to the downside so that the southward move could continue.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The sudden weakness in the Euro has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Short trades are currently recommended. The cross should be trading below the price zone at 140.50, as it goes towards the price zone at 140.00. On the other hand, there might be some short-term rally from the aforementioned demand level.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    "People ask me when I'm going to retire, well… I actually have retired. This [trading] is the most under-worked and overpaid occupation in the world."- Chris Tate
     
  14. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 19 - 23, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This currency trading instrument has been bearish since last week. From a high of 1.3993, the price dropped by over 340 pips, reaching the support line at 1.3650. The support line has brought about a temporary halt in the bearish journey. This halt resulted in an upward bounce that has taken the price above the support line at 1.3700. The support line at 1.3750 should act as a barrier to further rally in the context of a downtrend. The bearish journey is supposed to continue when the price breaks the support line at 1.3650 to the downside, targeting another support line at 1.3550.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The current upward move has been the strongest trending move on the USD/CHF since April 2014. From a low of 0.8700, the price skyrocketed by over 250 pips, topping at the resistance level of 0.8950. There has been a short-term pullback which has been challenged at the support level of 0.8900. In case of more determined bears’ machination, the pullback could also be challenged at the support level of 0.8850. Generally the price ought to go further upwards, breaking the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside as it goes towards another target at the resistance level at 0.9050.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The pair gave way to gravity as well: it went down toward the accumulation territory at 1.6750 before the price experienced some shallow rally. The rally is seen as a temporary thing in the context of a downtrend. It is something that allows the bears to sell short at a better price. The next target is at another accumulation territory of 1.6650, which could be reached within the next several trading days.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There is a confirmed bearish outlook on this market, though the bearish run is not as strong as other JPY pairs. There is also a recalcitrant demand level at 101.50. This demand level has succeeded in rejecting further bearish move – it did that last week and this week. The price needs to breach the demand level to the downside and close below it, for the bearish outlook to continue o be valid.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This cross is in a downtrend and it is currently challenging the demand zone at 139.00. The demand zone has a high probability of being breached to the downside. When this happens, the price could target another demand zone at 138.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “With the changes in the perception of Forex trading from being a high speed, high risk gamble, to being a scientifically driven investment vehicle, supported by social media, there are likely to be many more Forex traders in the coming years.” - Razi Hammouda
     
  15. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 26 - 30, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The dominant bias on the EUR/USD has been bearish for most part of this month. However, the adamant and obdurate support line at 1.3650 has been a major headache to the bears. As a result of this, the southward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved down by 55 pips this week. The expectation is: the support line has to be broken to the downside so that the bearish journey can continue. Should the support line get broken to the downside, the next price targets could be the support lines at 1.3600 and 1.3550.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The dominant bias on the USD/CHF has been bullish for most part of this month. Nevertheless, the recalcitrant and obstinate resistance level at 0.8950 has been a major problem to the bulls. As a result of this, the northward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved up by 42 pips this week. The expectation is: the resistance level has to be broken to the upside so that the bullish journey can continue. Should the resistance level get broken to the upside, the next price targets could be resistance levels at 0.9000 and 0.9050.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The price is currently challenging the distribution territory at 1.6900 – a vigorous challenge indeed! The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart ensures that the current bearish retracement remains shallow and another opportunity to buy long during such retracement.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Although the overall bias on this pair is bearish, there is a serious challenge to the bias. The price has closed above the demand level at 101.50, but it needs to close below it so that the bearish bias might continue. In fact, the price also needs to breach the demand level at 101.00 to the downside and continue its journey further downwards. On the other hand, a movement above the supply level at 102.00 would mean a serious jeopardy to the bearish bias, especially when the price closes above it.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This currency trading instrument remains weak. One reason for this is the weakness in the EUR itself. The southward moved has been slow and tardy; and there is a need for the price to breach the demand zone at 138.50 to the downside so that the southward journey can continue.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “It is possible to make it big in trading if one has a clear idea of direction, degree, and timing. One must know when to buy, when to sell, and when to stay out of the market.” - Roy Longstreet
     
  16. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Re: Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 26 - 30, 2014)

    Hi,

    Two quick things:

    1) I'm going to merge your weekly forecast threads into one single thread. Please just post updates to the one thread moving forward.

    2) Your other, non-forecast threads, I'm going to ask you to stop posting them here unless they are going to be unique to this site. I wouldn't mind if the content was exclusive to FXGears, but the articles are copy paste jobs that can be seen all over the net, and I don't want to encourage such types of posts. (There's also the matter of how copy-pasted content affects credibility in the eyes of Google and other search engines, that is, when it's posted like this without a proper source credit and link attributed to it... but that's besides the point.)

    Thanks for understanding.

    Jack
     
  17. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Hi Jack:

    Thanks for the kindly instruction, this is noted.

    1. Henceforth the Weekly Trading Forecasts would be updated on a single thread as you suggested.

    2. The other topics appear on several other sites as well, just as you've noted. The purpose is to help traders be the best they can be as they're exposed to the truth about trading and principles that can really help them to become permanently victorious traders.

    I'm working on new topics like: "The fastest ways to become a profitable trader," "The easiest ways to turn losses into profits, "A positive expectancy strategy - a helpful approach for all beginner traders," "4 factors that prevent 95% of traders from being successful: How you can avoid them," etc.

    But I may not need to post them here according to your suggestion. I don't want to show the source or use any attributive link because it's against the forum rules (which must be honored), and because that's not my aim - at least for now.

    Your opinions are valued and would be respected.

    With humble regards...
     
  18. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 2 - 6, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This market has been moving downwards in a slow and tardy manner. Since early May 2014, the downward move that begun has taken the market down by over 380 pips. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is rational to expect that the downward move could continue, although the possibility of a transitory rally cannot be ruled out on the way. The support line at 1.3500 is our target for the next week.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This currency trading instrument has been caught in a slow and tardy mode also. After the ‘buy’ signal was generated earlier in the month of May 2014, the price has moved upwards by over 270 pips. Now, the possibility of the price moving higher cannot be ruled out, for the northward bias has been established. There could, nevertheless, be some pullbacks in the market along the way, but they ought not to take the price below the support levels at 0.8950 and 0.8900. Any movement below the support levels (especially the latter one) would mean the end of the northward bias. In the meantime, the price may trudge towards our target at the resistance level of 0.9000. It may even break it to the upside and move towards another resistance level at 0.9050.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The Cable gave a spurious ‘buy’ signal last week. Because the price was unable to move higher and break the accumulation territory at 1.6900 to the upside, the Cable skydived and tested the accumulation territory at 1.6700. The ‘sell’ signal in the market has been confirmed: the price could continue trading lower, with the probability of reaching another accumulation territory at 1.6650.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This is a difficult market – a market in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare. Unless one is scalping or speculating on intraday basis, one may think of getting out of the market until a determined movement occurs. When it does occur, it is more probable that the price would go lower.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Since early May 2014, the cross has gone down by close to 400 pips. The bearish outlook is still valid and may continue till next week, reaching a target at 137.00. It is rational to sell the cross on rallies.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “The key word here is patience. If you're using the correct strategies, you can be sure that [a] bad run will end, it’s only a matter of time.” - Marcus de Maria
     
  19. analyst75

    analyst75 Well-Known Member

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 9 - 13, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair recently managed to test the support line at 1.3500 (or the price almost touched the support line). The movement of the price around the support line could not be sustained because the price bounced upwards seriously, reaching the resistance line at 1.6350. The price has succeeded in closing above the resistance line – something the poses a serious challenge to the bearish scenario. A close above the resistance line at 1.3700 would mean a successful challenge to the bearish scenario, which in turn would mean the start of a confirmed uptrend. On the other hand, should the price fail to close above the resistance line at 1.3700, it could be assumed that the bearish run would resume.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The condition affecting this currency trading instrument is similar to that of the EURUSD, except in the opposite manner. The price tested the resistance level at 0.9000, but pulled back significantly. Yes, the pullback is significant enough to pose a threat to the recent bullish outlook; plus a close below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish outlook completely useless.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The bullish attempt in this market is noteworthy enough to make long trades sensible in the market. When this forecast was being prepared, the price was trading above the accumulation territory at 1.6800. The price could reach the distribution territories at 1.6850 and 1.6900 within the next several trading days. In fact, this could be faster than imagine when the Greenback suddenly gets weakened further.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Although the price is currently experiencing some bullish retracement, it is still safe to assume that the bullish bias in the market is valid. The bullish bias can only be rendered useless when the price drops below the demand level at 102.00 and the demand level at 101.50. A movement above the supply level at 103.00 (even a test of it) would result in a renewed confirmation of the bullish bias.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the cross, which would even be more formidable when the price closes above the supply zone 140.00: an easy target. The medium-term target for the next week is at the supply zone of 141.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “I suggest long-term traders make it a daily, or even weekly, habit to check on their trades. That way, you can stay on top of things without worrying about the false idol of overnight results.” – Joe Ross
     
  20. Simr

    Simr Well-Known Member

    You're bullish EU and bearish EJ .. ???
     

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