Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - InnerCircleTrader

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If you're intrested in my opinion its something like that.
And this is my opinion alone.I could be veeeery wrong.
Always try to break down the HTF to lower timeframes,that's usually helpful to understand where you are right then ,compared to the big picture.
 

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yes but doesnt tell you exactly where we are at ?
example i posted the daily chart and sample of the buy model .
can you tell me where exactly are we in the sample chart ,if the next leg is going to be up or down .i mean the direction . i want to be able to find that .thanks for your input .

as i go deeper into the fractals i am just finding sell models .
 
booze007 said:
hey sybrand .

i am sure you have watched his earlier videos . i watched his complete trading plan series . the concept of tuesday is making high is really fine .but how do i determine the direction of the market . are you familiar with his concept of market structure ?


i uploaded his buy model and eurusd . both look similar but i am having diffcult time spoting where are we .

Hi Booze007,

I might be entirely wrong on this and only drew in the crosses to quickly check if we are on the same page.

If price turns here and we can mark the red circle with a green cross the green cross with the arrow pointing towards it will turn blue. If the green cross close to 1.32 is then broken, that is where market structure is broken.

If 1.34 is broken the cross remains green and thus market structure remains in tact.

Also even if any high is broken it is likely to retrace before it continues up or it might take out stops there before it goes down longer term. That is why we see what happens to the previous green cross at the bottom.

You can break this down (or scale it up for that matter) to any time frame. The easiest thing would be to start with the COT data....

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=DXU13&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=L&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=e6U13&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=L&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=

We are approaching a rather net short position with the commercials in the COT data but it isn't a drastic drop yet or net short yet. The USD had a decent rise in commercial net long positions though. So we might see a turn around in price not too long from now. I would have liked to see more of a drop or a drop into a net short position below the one we had in June, to start selling just yet.

Also look at the seasonal chart, that helps some times just to get the direction right and can work well paired with the COT data. You will not always get the extent of the move but it can help and is another tool we can check to see if things are in fact aligning with each other in our favor.

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_eurusd.html

Looks like it can top out this time of the year/month and come down before a huge rally from middle September to the end of the year.

My 2cents: Seasonally we are expecting a small drop in price. The commercials are close to being net short. We are trading close to a high where long term stops might be trailing at. Lets see if they take out those stops and then start selling. We can however include the idea of starting to sell now since there was a decent increase in the commercial's long positions, in the USDx, although I would have liked to see that as confirmation rather than basing my trade on it. I'm also still learning and just a student so this thing might go up to 1.37 without a drop. Please don't take to heart anything I say without "seeing" it yourself. Short and sweet of it, the COT data didn't pan out as clear as I hoped it would and that brings some caution to my decision. Lets see what the other guys has to say about next week ;)

All the best,
Sybrand
 

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booze007 said:
yes but doesnt tell you exactly where we are at ?
example i posted the daily chart and sample of the buy model .
can you tell me where exactly are we in the sample chart ,if the next leg is going to be up or down .i mean the direction . i want to be able to find that .thanks for your input .

as i go deeper into the fractals i am just finding sell models .

The largest fractal you use is your reference point.
You are using descending t/f for confluence. Provide entry.
Largest t/f is your trend.

Exit is the trick in any trade.
 
Alpha-Bet said:
The largest fractal you use is your reference point.
You are using descending t/f for confluence. Provide entry.
Largest t/f is your trend.

Exit is the trick in any trade.

Well said. That's the biggest trick. :D
 
OK so to answer Michaels homework he assigned to us. He is telling us about power of 3: accumulation, profit release, distribution. Its always happening one way or another this time it was bearish market in the week he marked to us. Anyway so the High was forming in the LO and the Low between 16:00 and 18:00GMT. Hope that answers Mikes question.
 
Homework time - in the week of 1-5 July the biggest moves occurred at 12:00GMT, 07:00GMT, and sometimes 15:00GMT. Looking at the 5 minute chart, these moves started quickly and mostly kept on going in the direction they started.

I couldn't see any specific swing high / low setup that would have predicted these moves. Sometimes there are several swing highs just before a move down, but that's not consistent enough to count on.

So those killzones are pretty easy to spot, what we do with them is a little more challenging...

Looking forward to the next episode.
 
Part of homework:
I went through 40 trading days and looked for the daily and weekly highs and lows but I did not discover a pattern. :(

Eurusd
Daily Highs
Time
Sorted by time
00:00: 6x
01:00: 2x
02:00: 0x
03:00: 1x
04:00: 0x
05:00: 1x
06:00: 4x
07:00: 1x
08:00: 1x
09:00: 2x
10:00: 1x
11:00: 1x
12:00: 2x
13:00: 1x
14:00: 3x
15:00: 1x
16:00: 2x
17:00: 0x
18:00: 3x
19:00: 5x
20:00: 2x
21:00: 0x
22:00: 1x
23:00: 1x

Sorted by frequency
00:00: 6x
19:00: 5x
06:00: 4x
14:00: 3x
18:00: 3x
01:00: 2x
09:00: 2x
12:00: 2x
16:00: 2x
20:00: 2x
03:00: 1x
05:00: 1x
07:00: 1x
08:00: 1x
10:00: 1x
11:00: 1x
13:00: 1x
15:00: 1x
22:00: 1x
23:00: 1x
02:00: 0x
04:00: 0x
17:00: 0x
21:00: 0x

Monday
18:00
23:00
19:00
05:00
14:00
10:00
07:00
00:00

Tuesday
06:00
06:00
06:00
19:00
18:00
11:00
14:00
09:00

Wednesday
00:00 & 01:00
15:00
22:00
12:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
06:00

Thursday
16:00
00:00
03:00
00:00
20:00
00:00
16:00
19:00

Friday
12:00
01:00
19:00
00:00
08:00
14:00
09:00
13:00

Eurusd
Daily Low
Sorted by time
00:00: 2x
01:00: 0x
02:00: 1x
03:00: 1x
04:00: 0x
05:00: 1x
06:00: 2x
07:00: 1x
08:00: 0x
09:00: 5x
10:00: 0x
11:00: 1x
12:00: 6x
13:00: 4x
14:00: 5x
15:00: 5x
16:00: 1x
17:00: 3x
18:00: 0x
19:00: 1x
20:00: 0x
21:00: 0x
22:00: 0x
23:00: 0x

Sorted by frequency
12:00: 6x
09:00: 5x
14:00: 5x
15:00: 5x
13:00: 4x
17:00: 3x
00:00: 2x
06:00: 2x
02:00: 1x
03:00: 1x
05:00: 1x
07:00: 1x
11:00: 1x
16:00: 1x
19:00: 1x
01:00: 0x
04:00: 0x
08:00: 0x
10:00: 0x
18:00: 0x
20:00: 0x
21:00: 0x
22:00: 0x
23:00: 0x

Monday

12:00
00:00
05:00
11:00
06:00
14:00
14:00
12:00

Tuesday
14:00
19:00
17:00
09:00
09:00
14:00
06:00
15:00

Wednesday
15:00
07:00
02:00
15:00
17:00
12:00
09:00
09:00

Thursday
15:00
13:00
13:00
16:00
09:00
12:00
03:00
14:00

Friday
15:00
13:00
13:00
00:00
12:00
12:00
15:00
17:00

Eurusd
Weekly high
Sorted by time
Monday: 0x
Tuesday: 2x
Wednesday: 3x
Thursday: 1x
Friday: 2x

Sorted by frequence
Wednesday: 3x
Tuesday: 2x
Friday: 2x
Thursday: 1x
Monday: 0x

Eurusd
Weekly low
Sorted by time
Monday: 3x
Tuesday: 1x
Wednesday: 1x
Thursday: 1x
Friday: 2x

Sorted by frequency
Monday: 3x
Friday: 2x
Tuesday: 1x
Wednesday: 1x
Thursday: 1x
 
Sybrand said:
Hi Booze007,

I might be entirely wrong on this and only drew in the crosses to quickly check if we are on the same page.

If price turns here and we can mark the red circle with a green cross the green cross with the arrow pointing towards it will turn blue. If the green cross close to 1.32 is then broken, that is where market structure is broken.

If 1.34 is broken the cross remains green and thus market structure remains in tact.

Also even if any high is broken it is likely to retrace before it continues up or it might take out stops there before it goes down longer term. That is why we see what happens to the previous green cross at the bottom.

You can break this down (or scale it up for that matter) to any time frame. The easiest thing would be to start with the COT data....

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=DXU13&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=L&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=e6U13&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=L&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=

We are approaching a rather net short position with the commercials in the COT data but it isn't a drastic drop yet or net short yet. The USD had a decent rise in commercial net long positions though. So we might see a turn around in price not too long from now. I would have liked to see more of a drop or a drop into a net short position below the one we had in June, to start selling just yet.

Also look at the seasonal chart, that helps some times just to get the direction right and can work well paired with the COT data. You will not always get the extent of the move but it can help and is another tool we can check to see if things are in fact aligning with each other in our favor.

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_eurusd.html

Looks like it can top out this time of the year/month and come down before a huge rally from middle September to the end of the year.

My 2cents: Seasonally we are expecting a small drop in price. The commercials are close to being net short. We are trading close to a high where long term stops might be trailing at. Lets see if they take out those stops and then start selling. We can however include the idea of starting to sell now since there was a decent increase in the commercial's long positions, in the USDx, although I would have liked to see that as confirmation rather than basing my trade on it. I'm also still learning and just a student so this thing might go up to 1.37 without a drop. Please don't take to heart anything I say without "seeing" it yourself. Short and sweet of it, the COT data didn't pan out as clear as I hoped it would and that brings some caution to my decision. Lets see what the other guys has to say about next week ;)

All the best,
Sybrand


thanks alot for the replies guys . my question was more like where exactly are we on the fractal in eurusd . does the chart follow same fractal pattern always ?
 

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If I were you guys, I'd be paying more attention to the GBP/USD if your looking for longs


2cjo8At.jpg


I drew a trend line then I noticed that forming. Could be wrong I don't trade based on triangles or flags.

Compare this to the GBP


63yjDWN.jpg



qnk9vj9.jpg


Thing is I am more likely to bet that the GBP will edge higher into OTE plausibly higher and I will likely be betting on the GBP vs the EUR MOST DAYS not every day.
 
Booze I can see you still have a lot to learn and I would suggest you start from the first videos ICT made, the answer you are looking Is in the video called: ICT core concepts. This is not where we at its just an example of market structure and how markets work and yes they always work like this.
 
Piptricia said:
Part of homework:
I went through 40 trading days and looked for the daily and weekly highs and lows but I did not discover a pattern. :(

Sorted by frequency
00:00: 6x
19:00: 5x
06:00: 4x
14:00: 3x
18:00: 3x

Hi Piptricia

I think that you have shown statistically what ICT was hoping that you would find.
Out of 40 trading days, the daily high occurs 52.5% of the time during the five time periods I qouted above. Take a look now at the days of the week and look for an edge there. Then put the two together, and look for patterns. It might pop out more if you look at the chart with weekly/daily seperators.
 
stackerofpips said:
Hi Piptricia

I think that you have shown statistically what ICT was hoping that you would find.
Out of 40 trading days, the daily high occurs 52.5% of the time during the five time periods I qouted above. Take a look now at the days of the week and look for an edge there. Then put the two together, and look for patterns. It might pop out more if you look at the chart with weekly/daily seperators.


All so true, you have to keep in mind other concepts besides the weekly high and low being made by Tuesday. Sometimes price will edge higher or lower constantly until Friday LO or NY open when it suddenly just punches back the other way.

One thing to keep in mind is that you use a concept when appropriate and in the case of the euro it was pretty highly consolidated and then we had the large S&D profile which was great if your scalping but if your looking for long term then, it may had been best to sit out or take faster profits.

Also if you looked at bonds they were saying lower despite all the things that went on.
 
Homework - July 1-5 Study

Looking at this time block with just the points covered in Mikes Video and nothing else, I see that:

In a bullish day the Low is in place by 10:00 and I can expect a High to form some time at or after 15:00 and vice-versa for a bearish day.

I also see that the largest swings have the highest probability of occurring, (for this data set), when price approaches support/resistance levels of a higher time frame, i.e, price is likely to bounce a lot further of a 1 hour level of Support/Resistance than of a 15 minute level of S/R.

Determining the flow of the day, well I am working on that :) it appears if the direction of the price is approaching either a level of Support or Resistance in the period before 10:00 then look for a trade in the opposite direction. I am about to delve into a larger data set to see if this is any where near useful or just rubbish LOL
 

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booze007 said:
thanks alot for the replies guys . my question was more like where exactly are we on the fractal in eurusd . does the chart follow same fractal pattern always ?

I agree with Kuzia...

Kuzia said:
Booze I can see you still have a lot to learn and I would suggest you start from the first videos ICT made, the answer you are looking Is in the video called: ICT core concepts. This is not where we at its just an example of market structure and how markets work and yes they always work like this.
 
stackerofpips said:
Hi Piptricia

I think that you have shown statistically what ICT was hoping that you would find.
Out of 40 trading days, the daily high occurs 52.5% of the time during the five time periods I qouted above. Take a look now at the days of the week and look for an edge there. Then put the two together, and look for patterns. It might pop out more if you look at the chart with weekly/daily seperators.

Hi stackerofpips

Ah, okay, I see...Thanks a lot! :)
 
Tansen said:
All so true, you have to keep in mind other concepts besides the weekly high and low being made by Tuesday. Sometimes price will edge higher or lower constantly until Friday LO or NY open when it suddenly just punches back the other way.

One thing to keep in mind is that you use a concept when appropriate and in the case of the euro it was pretty highly consolidated and then we had the large S&D profile which was great if your scalping but if your looking for long term then, it may had been best to sit out or take faster profits.

Also if you looked at bonds they were saying lower despite all the things that went on.

Hi Tansen

Thank you for your helpful post! :)
 
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