Hopiplaka's Journal

[Hopiplaka]

Trade setup 2014 W14

And there it was, a nice setup in line with the 9/18 EMA on 1D and 4H.

Wednesday cleared the stops, MS broke and a nice retracement after the EUR and USD news.
1.3800 was a nice entry point (Pivot R1 level), right into the 1H order block.
TP on the TP2 level, confluence was with the 1.27 fib extension.

 

[Hopiplaka]

Trade Setup 2014 Week 14 GBPUSD

Here is a drilled down version of a nice trade setup for the Cable (GBPUSD), one I did not trade, but it is to show how you would enter a stress free trade, and practice the patience skills

First we determine the daily order block low, which is the last bullish candle before the move down: 1.66825'ish. The entry into the daily order block was made on Monday, which makes it the high of the week.
Also look at the nice divergence with the RSI(5) occurring at that time (power of 3 concept video)

Next we zoom into the 4H and wait for a Market structure break (1.6656'ish) , which happened on Tuesday.

The final step is to wait for the retracement. So take the 1H chart and see what order block is likely to be touched, which is 1.6660.

This could be a nice entry point for those working during the day. Most people could find this entry before Wednesday I think.

Should you be able to sit in front of the charts, you could fine tune your entry on Wednesday using the 5M chart.

Our 1H order block was touched during LO Kill Zone. Driver was the "Construction PMI" news event. Now you could wait for a nice OTE on the 5M, which came in the NYO Kill Zone.

A nice fine tuned entry point was at between 1.6652 and 1.6657, the 62% and 79% OTE on the 5M.
So let's say you want to be sure of your entry and account for the spread, you could enter with a high level of confidence at 1.6650, a nice round midfig number.

Zoom back out to the 1H chart for the take profit level. The 1.62% extension of the fib drawn from Monday's high to Tuesday's low came at 1.6577.
Zoom out enough so you also see last Thursday's 1H order block. The high of that order block was 1.6575. Confluences enough to set your take profit, let's say 1.6580 for a nice round level.

Conclusion: sell entry @ 1.6650, take profit @ 1.6580, which is 70 pips or 4.5% gain of your portfolio if you take a 30 pip stop loss.

Speaking of the stop loss. You can clearly see a nice stop hunt Wednesday evening during Asian session and also during Thursday's LO session, but it was only 3 pips or so, so we never ever came close to our 30pips.

There you have it: a stress free 70 pips laid at your feet, even possible for people who have a day job.

 

[Hopiplaka]

Weekly setup Week 14 Gold

And a nice one for Gold as well. Monday's low, break 1 and break 2 were seen on the 1H, traded right into the OTE zone, confluence with the 1H order block.

 

[Hopiplaka]

Re: Weekly setup Week 14 Gold

And a nice one for Gold as well. Monday's low, break 1 and break 2 were seen on the 1H, traded right into the OTE zone, confluence with the 1H order block.

Take a look what happened during NFP. A retest of the first break level - which lines up with the 1H order block - and then all the way up to the TP1 level. Gotto love the ICT concepts

 

[Hopiplaka]

Weekly Setup USDCAD Week 15

So ICT asked us to study the USDCAD pair the last couple of weeks.
And I think I know why

You can see the break 1/break 2 and back into an order block on the daily.
We had a decent bounce (40 pips) last Friday of the support level, the OTE on the 1H comes in at 1.0970 (for the round number).

I think that's a nice buy, and we might see the 127% etension later this month (1.1370), which would be 400 pips

The 200% extension is 1.1650'ish. If you draw a fib line on the monthly from the high of March 2009 to the low of July 2011, guess what fib level touches that 200% extension
That's like 650 or so (give or take 3 months?)

 

[Hopiplaka]

Weekly trade setup Week 15 GPBUSD

A similar pattern can be seen on the GBPUSD.
2 breaks and back into the order block. Down from here, maybe back to test the order block @ 1.6350'ish?

Areas to go short this week are 1.6610 (1D OB) /1.6630 (4H OB)

 

[fredfresh]

hahaha
just read your post about cable, right after I got stopped out by that crazy spike.. was short from 1.6636. usdx and fiber where in ote plus OB as well... the spike got cable up in a higher OTE and order block, thus I reentered short at 1.6707 as the usdx and fiber confluences are still in place.. I do hope to see some chris lori "inefficiency" play to work out in my favour
Not really convinced if this short would be a trade to hang on to for too long...

I did not manage to attend both ICT webinars last week due to poor internet connection.. but this whole Monthly low/high and first few days of the month below or above monthly open has me thinking (and frankly, confused) about this month... I kind of would have loved to see a retracement into an OTE off of Fridays low to yesterdays high, to enter long for the rest of the month (because we spent the first days of april below aprils opening price, I was expecting an up month after watching the last webinar)
lets see... hope to get more clarity soon

cheers

 

[Hopiplaka]

hahaha
just read your post about cable, right after I got stopped out by that crazy spike.. was short from 1.6636. usdx and fiber where in ote plus OB as well... the spike got cable up in a higher OTE and order block, thus I reentered short at 1.6707 as the usdx and fiber confluences are still in place.. I do hope to see some chris lori "inefficiency" play to work out in my favour
Not really convinced if this short would be a trade to hang on to for too long...

I did not manage to attend both ICT webinars last week due to poor internet connection.. but this whole Monthly low/high and first few days of the month below or above monthly open has me thinking (and frankly, confused) about this month... I kind of would have loved to see a retracement into an OTE off of Fridays low to yesterdays high, to enter long for the rest of the month (because we spent the first days of april below aprils opening price, I was expecting an up month after watching the last webinar)
lets see... hope to get more clarity soon

cheers

I think the spike can be explained if you zoom out to a 1D. If you pull a fib from the high of Feb to the low of March, you can see it lines up with the sweet spot and the order block on 1D (1.6744).

I'm thinking of making this a 2 part waiting game. First wait for the confirmation of the high/low of the week. At the moment, there is a nice divergence on the 1H (see attached screenshot).
When we see a decent retracement, I might look for a nice entry (maybe NYO, NYC or Wed. LO? ), preferable confirmed by an OTE, 1h Order block, fib level.

 

[Hopiplaka]

Re: Weekly setup Week 14 Gold

Take a look what happened during NFP. A retest of the first break level - which lines up with the 1H order block - and then all the way up to the TP1 level. Gotto love the ICT concepts

And Gold reached the 200% extension started last week. This might be a confirmation the USD will gain strength...

 

[fredfresh]

well that didn't work out again..
the first trade today I entered on the H1 order block... and reentered in the D1 order block.. but got stopped out both times..
In the last 2 years I improved drastically in my patience department..but if I cannot find a decent entry within 2-3 weeks I really start getting annoyed... between early february and yesterday I only took 2 trades! and today because of my re-entry I took another 2 trades.. still need to improve a lot.. in patience, and more importantly, finding my entries more regularly

with that said, looking at the economic calendar, I really didn't expect such a move today..
time to let off some steam.

with the webinar still in the back of my head, I am just still not settled on my bias for the month.. maybe friday was the low.
I always struggle when the week just takes off right away, without any meaningful retracement.. gets me burned plenty of time..
obviously it is still possible that we just set the weeks high today.. maybe tomorrows LO has the answer..
but damn I would have bet the farm on the 80 fig on usdx to hold... luckily (or actually: unfortunately) I do not own a farm and only bet 0.5%

 

[Hopiplaka]

well that didn't work out again..
the first trade today I entered on the H1 order block... and reentered in the D1 order block.. but got stopped out both times..
In the last 2 years I improved drastically in my patience department..but if I cannot find a decent entry within 2-3 weeks I really start getting annoyed... between early february and yesterday I only took 2 trades! and today because of my re-entry I took another 2 trades.. still need to improve a lot.. in patience, and more importantly, finding my entries more regularly

with that said, looking at the economic calendar, I really didn't expect such a move today..
time to let off some steam.

with the webinar still in the back of my head, I am just still not settled on my bias for the month.. maybe friday was the low.
I always struggle when the week just takes off right away, without any meaningful retracement.. gets me burned plenty of time..
obviously it is still possible that we just set the weeks high today.. maybe tomorrows LO has the answer..
but damn I would have bet the farm on the 80 fig on usdx to hold... luckily (or actually: unfortunately) I do not own a farm and only bet 0.5%

Well, I think it was too early to enter a trade yesterday. We reached the OTE level on the GBPUSD and are in the daily order block. The 4H low of that 1D order block comes in at 1.6757.

So step 1 of the waiting game is reached I think. Look at the divergence screenshot. There is divergence still between EU and GU. We an see a stop run @ EU. We might see the GU go to 1.6757 in LO today, but I think we reached the high of the week (80% of the time it's between Mon-Tue LO, 20% Wed LO)

Step 2 of the game is to wait for a decent bounce of the levels, ideally wait for a Market Structure break on the 1H. When we see the MS break, than it's time to draw an OTE, and zoom into the 15M/5M for the execution phase.

We still need to see a decent bounce and MS break, so I leave that for LO. The retracement is for NYO or maybe LO tomorrow. See my last week's post of the GU for a stress free trade that can be entered with a day job.

My aim for the week is 75 pips (with a 30 pip SL and 2% risk, that's 5% for the week). Mind you, the goal is still far away but I'm doing ok ;D
So it the large move of yesterday retraces down into a OTE level, that's about my 75 pips, even after a MS break down + retracement up.

The move up into the OTE level - and I admit that I was wrong with the levels I posted Monday, which I see after the fact - was actually expected when you had your eyes on XAUUSD (Gold). You could see the nice break to the upside, so it was expected the EU and GU to follow.

FredFresh, you're doing great so far. Try not to pick the tops/bottoms (part 1 of the waiting game), but look for clues of a reversal and trade the OTE after te reversal (part 2 of the waiting game).

Day trading is every day looking and 4 hours executing every week

 

[fredfresh]

yeah.. like I mentioned.. my patience has improved drastically in the past 2 years.. but it still has its limitations not quite a zen maser yet

 

[Hopiplaka]

Well, I think it was too early to enter a trade yesterday. We reached the OTE level on the GBPUSD and are in the daily order block. The 4H low of that 1D order block comes in at 1.6757.

So step 1 of the waiting game is reached I think. Look at the divergence screenshot. There is divergence still between EU and GU. We an see a stop run @ EU. We might see the GU go to 1.6757 in LO today, but I think we reached the high of the week (80% of the time it's between Mon-Tue LO, 20% Wed LO)

Step 2 of the game is to wait for a decent bounce of the levels, ideally wait for a Market Structure break on the 1H. When we see the MS break, than it's time to draw an OTE, and zoom into the 15M/5M for the execution phase.

We still need to see a decent bounce and MS break, so I leave that for LO. The retracement is for NYO or maybe LO tomorrow. See my last week's post of the GU for a stress free trade that can be entered with a day job.

My aim for the week is 75 pips (with a 30 pip SL and 2% risk, that's 5% for the week). Mind you, the goal is still far away but I'm doing ok ;D
So it the large move of yesterday retraces down into a OTE level, that's about my 75 pips, even after a MS break down + retracement up.

The move up into the OTE level - and I admit that I was wrong with the levels I posted Monday, which I see after the fact - was actually expected when you had your eyes on XAUUSD (Gold). You could see the nice break to the upside, so it was expected the EU and GU to follow.

FredFresh, you're doing great so far. Try not to pick the tops/bottoms (part 1 of the waiting game), but look for clues of a reversal and trade the OTE after te reversal (part 2 of the waiting game).

Day trading is every day looking and 4 hours executing every week

Part 2 of the waiting game is over for the EU (my 2 cents )

Concepts:

• We hit the aD/4H order block
• GU was also in the OTE zone
• Stop run was seen on the 1H for EU
• Break in MS on 1H
• A retracement of at least 30 pips right into a 15 MIN order block
• A hidden OTE entry @ 1.3820 right into the sweet spot
• 3 Indians into a SR level
• Into a 5M order block
• 1.3800/1.3805 was a nice short level

 

[fredfresh]

btw.. 1.6757 pretty impressive! I think I will also start overlaying my D1 order blocks with H4 order blocks from now on only been using D1 really..


75 pips a week sounds pretty good to me..
I have not reached consistency yet, thats why Im also only using 0.5% on each trade for now..

good luck on your trade.
just got my internet connection back in the last hour.. my ISP doesn't seem to care about my LO

 

[Hopiplaka]

btw.. 1.6757 pretty impressive! I think I will also start overlaying my D1 order blocks with H4 order blocks from now on only been using D1 really..


75 pips a week sounds pretty good to me..
I have not reached consistency yet, thats why Im also only using 0.5% on each trade for now..

good luck on your trade.
just got my internet connection back in the last hour.. my ISP doesn't seem to care about my LO

Thanks, it's really cool to see how these concepts go to the pip level.
Another strong indication that we were going down is the divergence seen between the EU and GU on the 1H.
So both stops were cleared on the EU and GU, SMT divergence, ... all in all some good indications to go short. The 1.6740 is a nice Sweet spot NYO short level...

 

[slugFX]

I just got stopped out of this trade. I am really mad at myself for not closing out when it retraced to around -1 or -2 pips on the trade.

Part 2 of the waiting game is over for the EU (my 2 cents )

Concepts:

• We hit the aD/4H order block
• GU was also in the OTE zone
• Stop run was seen on the 1H for EU
• Break in MS on 1H
• A retracement of at least 30 pips right into a 15 MIN order block
• A hidden OTE entry @ 1.3820 right into the sweet spot
• 3 Indians into a SR level
• Into a 5M order block
• 1.3800/1.3805 was a nice short level

 

[fredfresh]

was short in both pairs (because I chronically choose the wrong one..I sometimes trade both on half risk each)

closed cable at -3 pips after it changed H1 MS back to bullish.. kept fiber on, but closed a partial position at -8 pips before getting stopped out.

I guess it was friday making the low after all. I might wait for a nice big retracement to enter long, potentially next week..

sometimes you win, and sometimes you learn..

cheers

 

[Hopiplaka]

was short in both pairs (because I chronically choose the wrong one..I sometimes trade both on half risk each)

closed cable at -3 pips after it changed H1 MS back to bullish.. kept fiber on, but closed a partial position at -8 pips before getting stopped out.

I guess it was friday making the low after all. I might wait for a nice big retracement to enter long, potentially next week..

sometimes you win, and sometimes you learn..

cheers

Yes, was totally off this week as well. Back to the drawing board. It was a continuation of last Friday's. I was correct in the Gold trade, I should have understand that the GBPUSD and EURUSD follow hist tail, and pay attention to that weekly order block.

I regret I could attend the second live session last week where the NFP and Monthly low were explained.

Let's see what next week brings

 

[fredfresh]

mike said he will eventually release a few videos explaining it all in a more compact form.. I also missed the first one, and part of the second one..

I did expect going higher for the rest of the month, however I did expect a retracement down into OTE before heading higher, and the plan was to ride it down, counter trend. After price gunned those old highs on tuesday, I felt even more confirmed that it will probably retrace down into an ote from fridays low to this weeks high... but it didn't happen.

Mike seemed to have had a great week, according to his tweets. I really wonder how he knows in advance if the weekly high/low will be set during monday-wednesday LO, or if price just takes off on weeks open.. as those retracement-free weeks/months/days are always crushing me

with all that said, While I would still much prefer to win trades more often, I can honestly say that I have much improved in my ability to lose.. while two years ago I would always go apesh*t if I lose a trade, I hardly care anymore... one of my goals was, that my wife should not be able to tell by my mood if I won or lost a trade, and I am definitely getting there.
I read in several books, that some of the best traders are almost robotic while trading, and are quite indifferent in their behaviour if they win or lose... I do understand that now.

One thing that really worries me as a huge lack of experience in my trading is trade management, as I simply don't have that many winners, and if I do, I often don't hang on to it long enough to have much managing to do... with my new found focus on monthly high/low this ought to change (hopefully).
Risk management on the other hand has become my forté after two years of less than stellar trading

cheers

 

[sqa]

In my process of working through the ICT videos from the torrent (plus all of the current YouTube ones), with a renewed focus on "thinking like ICT", I think the best way to understand ICT is that he's like a "savvy veteran" in any Pro Sport. Or a Doctor with a lot of years on the job.

He knows the "tool" to apply to situations because he's seen so many. So why does he seem to subtly use different ones, in different situations? Because he knows the very tight differential.

However, he's definitely got an eye for "order flow" or "directional bias" that I'm not sure he can teach too well. I'm still not perfectly sure how he can pick directional bias from an Asian Range just on sight, but he's done it in at least several videos so far.

As for the topic on the whole, getting good requires you get most of the emotion out of it, even if it's pure instinct. Especially as a private trader. Which is probably why there is so many books written on Trader Psychology.