Daily Market Direction for LO Strategy

Hello everyone,

I wanted to ask, if there is anyone who has a better idea or concept to identify the daily market direction for the London open strategy.
I know ICT uses the MA Crossover on the D1 chart, but I was curious if there is maybe a better way, or an additional Concept for Confluence, to increase the win probability.

P.S. As you can probably see, english is not my first language, but I hope my question is understandable.

Thanks,
Chris

Offline rod178

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The market ranges about 80% of the time.

MAs are a blunt instrument. A coin toss is a better option

Use market Structure breaks
Better a Goat than a Sheep. Better a Shark than a Fish

Hi rod178, could you be so kind and post an example of the market structure break with a followed possible London open entry.
Im not sure what exactly you mean with it, like LLs, LHs. HLs, HHs.

It would help me a lot.

After 3 years of studying FX, Charts, writing EAs ect, I slowly have to admit,that nobody except the big players, knows whats going on or where the Price is moving. All this shitty strategies and youtube bullshit video, its nothing more then guessing and pretending to have knowledge.
Hi rod178, could you be so kind and post an example of the market structure break with a followed possible London open entry.
Im not sure what exactly you mean with it, like LLs, LHs. HLs, HHs.

It would help me a lot.

After 3 years of studying FX, Charts, writing EAs ect, I slowly have to admit,that nobody except the big players, knows whats going on or where the Price is moving. All this shitty strategies and youtube bullshit video, its nothing more then guessing and pretending to have knowledge.

Hi Chris- I Saw your post and I was marking this up for my journal so I added some stuff in the hope that it would illustrate an answer your questions about market structure breaks etc.
I use what I call  "Guide Lines" either 2 swing Highs &  a Swing Low or 1 Swing High and 2 Swing lows to help  me observe changes in market structure.

If you like the ideas play around with it on the 1 hour and higher time frames to see if it helps you identify good entries with a trend bias and risk to reward that works for you.

As the goes the trend is your friend till it bends. This method of observing helps me see the bend and eventual break & identify entries on the way
There are three kinds of money in the Markets> Strong, Stupid and Sly. If you aren't Strong Money. Don't be Stupid. Become Sly
Hi Computater707,

thank you for your reply, I really appreciated.

Offline ballsdeeptrader

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Hi rod178, could you be so kind and post an example of the market structure break with a followed possible London open entry.
Im not sure what exactly you mean with it, like LLs, LHs. HLs, HHs.

It would help me a lot.

After 3 years of studying FX, Charts, writing EAs ect, I slowly have to admit,that nobody except the big players, knows whats going on or where the Price is moving. All this shitty strategies and youtube bullshit video, its nothing more then guessing and pretending to have knowledge.
looks like you got ict,s work in one shitty strategies 
Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.
My strategy is that the market will move after London open. I wouldnt say that thats ICTs Stragety, I just gave it a try again, after watching his videos.
If you dont have anything constructive or helpfull to tell me, dont answer my questions.
I dont have any use for sarcastic answer, or online battles with hard keyboardwarriors, dont waste my time.

Offline rod178

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My strategy is that the market will move after London open. I wouldnt say that thats ICTs Stragety, I just gave it a try again, after watching his videos.
If you dont have anything constructive or helpfull to tell me, dont answer my questions.
I dont have any use for sarcastic answer, or online battles with hard keyboardwarriors, dont waste my time.

For intra day  trading, as you are apparently doing, a bias can be made on higher/lower lows and lower/higher highs. If it is not clear then there is no bias, which is most of the time.

Larry Williams books(s) have an explanation on Market Structure

additionally, Trend Lines are nonsense, merely a blunt instrument version of the above.
Better a Goat than a Sheep. Better a Shark than a Fish
Thank you rod,
I always heard his name in forums ect, but thougt I could evade it to read his books, and get a shortcut, but now its probably time to do it.

No, no, all this TA stuff is nonsense, trendlines? more nonsense, break of MS?, yet again.

It's all down to the Fundies, nothing else.

So my nearest neighbor is Eur/Gbp, part of my life.

This morning shock and horror, UK retail sales were a miss, Eur/Gbp broke MS hr1 to the upside, all highs going back this last week were dust.

And what happened? - it came back down below all those highs on zero news, stopped at some stupid level.

But right now, when the dust has settled, there is a different picture, the break of MS to the upside, the stop at the stupid level on the way down (no break of MS to the downside), the look left at Feb 7th and how much of that was re-traced.

So I get an image, where is price headed, did it come back on no news for a reason, were there missed orders on the retail numbers, if so were they buys or sells.

This is the image I see tonight.

Edit: afterthought, wonder was  today an example of why not to chase, those missed orders maybe belong to some wise guys who don't like being left out.





it's all down to the Fundies, nothing else..

lol

s
" perceptual creativity is the ultimate source of edge. "
Lol, Shop, you have to admit, which is the prettiest.

Back to all this TA stuff, since I last posted, what do they call these candles, the last two.

Now, funny thing, I can remember the use of candles in real life, wicks were burned up, used.

(when I say real life I mean exactly that)






It's all down to the Fundies, nothing else.

So my nearest neighbor is Eur/Gbp, part of my life.

And what happened? - it came back down below all those highs on zero news, stopped at some stupid level.

But right now, when the dust has settled, there is a different picture, the break of MS to the upside, the stop at the stupid level on the way down (no break of MS to the downside), the look left at Feb 7th and how much of that was re-traced.

So I get an image, where is price headed, did it come back on no news for a reason, were there missed orders on the retail numbers, if so were they buys or sells.

This is the image I see tonight.

Edit: afterthought, wonder was  today an example of why not to chase, those missed orders maybe belong to some wise guys who don't like being left out.

If you are referring to fundamental economic announcements it may well be true.
A trader I know of refers to EURGBP as her "Golden Retriever". Why: it was one of the first pairs she studied and her newbie eyes noticed it almost always retraced & she traded that profitably.
There are three kinds of money in the Markets> Strong, Stupid and Sly. If you aren't Strong Money. Don't be Stupid. Become Sly
Finally, just to confirm all the TA rubbish, it works brilliant on left side.

See the horiz on hr4, exactly where price was supported, more importantly, on hr4 there is no wick - no shock, who actually thinks in hr4, it's a myth, there is no hr4, total baloney.

(Apologies for all lines except yellow.)

Edit:  the diagonal (trend line)is unchanged, just added the horiz 4hr to show how TA/FA just the same thing.
pete,

shop tech is all real time, hard right edge and fully alerted.

5 trades in the pic

sorry to disappoint.....:)

s
" perceptual creativity is the ultimate source of edge. "

Offline ballsdeeptrader

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My strategy is that the market will move after London open. I wouldnt say that thats ICTs Stragety, I just gave it a try again, after watching his videos.
If you dont have anything constructive or helpfull to tell me, dont answer my questions.
I dont have any use for sarcastic answer, or online battles with hard keyboardwarriors, dont waste my time.
i gave you good advice take it or leave it ,ict,s stuff is shit so thats saved you some time .

so your strategy is the market will move after london open ?and thats how far you have come in 3 years trading .
can you post a chart ,or explain if your direction bias  is based on a low timeframe or longer term .
do you scalp or position trade,swing ,or just looking for a indie that that shows you direction after london opens ?
do you look at the fundies of the said pair,or just t/a.
what pairs are you looking at in the london open
do you watch what the pair is doing before news release in london open ?
do you check what happend to the  pairs last news release pos/or neg and effect on the  pairs .
do you have data on  pairs  and % of false move /breakout of the pairs your looking to trade
do you take into account the daily .weekly /monthly open price of the pairs
do you look at atr of the pairs
do you look where the option expiries of the pairs are for that day ,where bids and offers are ?
what option barriers are being defended ,and by whom
i bet you dont look at any of the above to determine direction ,looking at ma,s on the daily is pathetic for a directional bias in the london open .
so lets start again ,what is your, the market will move in london open strategy  ,and what are you expecting to gain with what you currently use 
Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.

Offline rod178

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My strategy is that the market will move after London open. I wouldnt say that thats ICTs Stragety, I just gave it a try again, after watching his videos.
If you dont have anything constructive or helpfull to tell me, dont answer my questions.
I dont have any use for sarcastic answer, or online battles with hard keyboardwarriors, dont waste my time.

try these guys

http://www.daytradingforexlive.com/
Better a Goat than a Sheep. Better a Shark than a Fish
TO ballsdeep,

no I came further in 3 years. Higher TF bias. Daily chart, H4. No indicators. GBP Pairs.
Im pretty good with all of your questions, but Im interested in the last 2, where do you get the informations to answer them?

Offline ballsdeeptrader

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Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.

Offline rod178

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He said dont waste his time rod  ;)

at least they have an ongoing and freely published positive track record

he just has to remember that

Better a Goat than a Sheep. Better a Shark than a Fish